Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Net Yards Per Play Differential Rankings:
Buffalo has demonstrated its potential dominance early in the season, but struggled in the Florida humidity in Miami in Week 3 down 6 defensive starters. Their defense and more specifically their secondary will be a unit to watch in the coming weeks after losing Micah Hyde for the season. DT Jordan Phillips is out, while S Jordan Poyer, DT Ed Oliver and CB Dane Jackson are all questionable as of Friday vs. Balitmore.
Philly is clicking on all cylinders after three weeks with an upcoming matchup with the Jaguars, who are creeping toward a top 10 appearance in net YPP.
San Fran looked awful on offense against Denver on SNF, but if Shanahan can re-adjust the offense around Jimmy G’s skill set – he did not have a team playbook all preseason – SF has popped early on the defensive side of the ball.
There are a lot of unsurprising teams ranking near the bottom of the league through three weeks. The most surprising underperformers are Minnesota, Tennessee and Arizona.
First half point differential is an excellent indicator of a team’s ability to execute their gameplan early in the game and stop the opponent from doing the same.
Philly leads the league by a wide margin after dominating the first halves of their matchups with Minnesota and Washington.
Once again, San Fran ranks in the league’s top tier in a metric that’s indicative of execution and quality of gameplan.
Indy has been playing from behind in each of its first three games, partially due to their inability to keep Matt Ryan upright. Their pass protection has been atrocious and their offensive execution has been as a result.
The Cardinals similarly have faced halftime deficits in each of their first three games in 2021. Kyler Murray is 2-7 SU since Week 13 of last season.
Here is a look at Sporting Intelligence’s 2021 year end offensive efficiency ratings compared to ratings after Week 3 of the 2022 NFL season.
Baltimore has gotten healthier (ish) on offense and Lamar is playing like a guy who wants a fully guaranteed $250M.
Mike McDaniels has provided a jolt of energy and speed into Miami’s offense. Unfortunately Tua has carted off the field on a stretcher on Thursday after an irresponsible handling of his injury in Week 3 vs Buffalo. Teddy Bridgewater pushed the ball down the field relatively effectively given the circumstance that it was a TNF game on the road.
Detroit has popped early with an offense predicated on attacking spread defenses with a hard-nosed run game. They’ll be missing Amon-Ra St. Brown and D’Andre Swift at home against Seattle, but they have a favorable matchup against a defense that ranks 30th in Sporting Intelligence’s defensive efficiency ratings through 3 weeks.
Similar to Mike McDaniels, Doug Pederson has given the Jaguars a boost on offense. Jags reporters have said that Lawrence is thriving in Pederson’s quick-rhythm offense that provides a balance of screens, throws on the runs and traditional dropbacks that are tailored to his strengths.
Despite Justin Fields’ inability to get anything going in the passing game, the Bears’ rushing attack has been extremely effective. The Bears might be the worst 2-1 team in the league, but they’ve won two of three games despite throwing for 99 yards pergame.
Cincy has struggled to get the ground game, which has held Burrow and the passing game back from opening up the field.
Tom Brady is dealing with cluster injuries all over the place on the offensive line and at the WR position. If the Bucs can get healthy at both positions later in the season, they have the defensive firepower to go deep in the playoffs. As it stands right now, Brady is struggling to get anything going on offense with the personnel available to him.
The Chargers’ defense has improved from its ranking in 2021, but with the starpower they have at nearly every level of the defense, you’d think they rank higher than 16.
Indy’s defense has regressed from its #7 ranking in 2021, in part due to the offense’s inability to sustain offense through three weeks and an injury to All-Pro LB Shaquille Leonard.
The Jags’ defense has surged from its #27 rating in 2021, primarily due to its ability to stop the run (#1 in league; 56 ypg), prevent opponent’s from moving to the red zone (#10 in % of opp. drives into RZ) and rush the quarterback (#12 in sacks, #7 in QB hits).
Depending on the length of Tua’s absence following his concussion on TNF, Buffalo could run away with the AFC East quickly with highly rated offensive and defensive units.
The Jags have been one of the league’s most impressive teams early in the season and our metrics support that. Indy on the other hand has been one of the most unimpressive teams on both sides of the ball. They’ll need to work on protecting Matt Ryan and getting Shaq Leonard healthy.
Baltimore looks like the most well balanced roster in the AFC North despite their glaring weakness in pass defense. Cincy will get their offensive woes figured out assuming their OL can gel as the season progresses.
Denver’s offense under Russell Wilson has been one of the biggest flops in the league thus far. Denver will be scary given their defense’s performance if Russ can get the offense moving. The Broncos went 3 and out on 7 of their first 8 drives on SNF.
Philly looks like the most well-balanced team in the NFC East, as the Giants and Commanders have glaring weaknesses on one side of the ball. The jury is out on how much better Dak Prescott is than an average NFL QB / Cooper Rush. He may provide a boost when he returns, but Dallas’ offloading of significant offensive production from 2021 in Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson is still going to be an issue.
If Tampa can get healthy on offense, their defense has flashed like it did when the beat the Chiefs in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. It’s a shame that New Orleans is wasting such a dominant defensive core with a QB who appears to be incapable of taking care of the football. Atlanta has outperformed preseason expectations thus far, as Mariota has demonstrated himself as an effective passer of the QB. Baker Mayfield may be done if he keeps it up in Carolina.
Detroit looks like the most imbalanced roster in football – highly efficient on offense and completely ineffective on defense. Chicago’s rushing attack has helped them to a 2-1 record. If Aaron Rodgers can build enough chemistry with his new receiving corps by the playoffs, the defense looks capable of contributing to a Super Bowl run.
Jimmy G could have used a playbook in the preseason. We’ll see how Shanahan re-schemes the offense after he digs up the 2021 playbook. Arizona has fallen off a cliff since starting 7-0 last season.
Balitmore’s inability to generate a pass rush has exposed their secondary early in the year. Miami’s secondary has been a liability thus far as well. Balitmore will face their toughest test of the season against Buffalo’s #1 ranked passing offense.
The Chargers can’t do anything in the ground game, which is an issue while Justin Herbert’s ribs heal. They have a favorable matchup with Houston’s 32nd rated rushing defense in Week 4.
Jacksonville has been torched on a few explosive passing plays early in the season, but they’re very effective in stopping the run. The Eagles will likely attack the secondary vertically with Devonta Smith, AJ Brown and Quez Watkins.
Baker Mayfield is not working in Carolina. DJ Moore voiced concerns earlier this week “Open is open in this league. If the quarterback doesn’t see it that way, it’s cool. They go on to the next read— next person is open. That goes for everybody in our room.” Not a good sign out of Carolina with Christian McCaffrey and Laviska Shenault questionable for Sunday.
The NFC East features three of the league’s top 10 secondaries by pass YPG.
The NFC North features three of the league’s top 10 rushing attacks and three of the league’s bottom 8 rushing defenses.
Red zone efficiency can be misleading as a percentage, because it does not quantify the number of trips an offense logs into the red zone. Drives that make it to the red zone result in points significantly more often that drives that do not, and thus red zone trips are a good measure of a team’s scoring potency.
The Tennessee Titans are highly efficient by RZ %, but rank near the bottom of the league in RZ trips. The Cleveland Browns rank in the middle of the pack in the league when it comes to red zone efficiency, but have scored more red zone TD’s than the Titans have trips.
Dallas, Denver, San Fran and Tampa Bay have each allowed their opponent’s into their red zone 5 times or less through three weeks.
Washington’s secondary has been awful and their red zone avoidance has been as well.
TARGET SHARE
Romeo Doubs has been Aaron Rodgers’ most targeted WR with 16 targets.
Russell Gage has been Brady’s most targeted WR, with an unfamiliar cast of characters behind him. Brady needs Julio Jones and Chris Godwin back and healthy badly.
Courtland Sutton is Russell Wilson’s favorite target early, followed by Javonte Williams. The LV Raiders have allowed 193 receiving yards to RB’s through 3 weeks (31st in the league).
WEEK 4 MATCHUP ANALYSIS
The matchup between the Giants and Bears will feature:
Two of the league’s top 4 rushing offenses
Two bottom 8 rushing defenses
Two of the league’s bottom 4 passing offenses
Two of the league’s top 8 passing defenses
Saquon Barkley and Khalil Herbert are both slated for big games with winds at ~15-16 mph at the Meadowlands and steady rain throughout the afternoon.
The Saints, Lions and Cowboys are each rated significantly higher net YPP than their Week 4 opponents and are favored by 4 points or less.
Jared Goff, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins and Mitchell Trubisky should have plenty of time in the pocket to assess coverages against week pass rushes in Week 4.
Pat Mahomes has not been sacked much through the first three weeks with the exception of the TNF matchup with the Chargers, but he’ll face a tough test against Tampa’s 3rd ranked pass rush on SNF.
Jacksonville has protected Trevor Lawrence well alongside a scheme predicated on getting the ball out quickly. They’ll face a tough test against a Philly defensive front that sacked Carson Wentz 9 times in Week 3.
Washington allowed 9 sacks to Philly’s 2nd ranked pass rush in Week 3. They’ll face the league’s top rated pass rush in Week 4. Micah Parsons has a chance to completely wreck this game against Wentz, who has a tendency to hold on the ball way too long.
The Rams’ OL is struggling with a revolving door at a number of positions and the departure of Andrew Whitworth. They have a tough divisional matchup with SF on MNF in the trenches.
Stefon Diggs is tied for 3rd in the league in pass catches over 10 yards facing the league’s 32nd ranked defense in the same metric.
Garrett Wilson, Courtland Sutton and Ceedee Lamb all will have opportunities to make explosive plays against the Steelers, Raiders and Commanders respectively.
Dallas Goedert and AJ Brown have been excellent in racking up yardage after the catch with a strong matchup against the Jags’ 27th rated defense against YAC.
Cooper Kupp has a tough matchup on MNF against the league’s #1 rated defense in passes over 10 yds allowed and yards after catch allowed.
Saquon Barkley ranks 2nd in the league in rushing yards per game and is facing the 30th ranked rushing defense. With rain and wind in the forecast in the Meadowlands, he is slated for a huge game against a defense that also ranks 24th in rushes over 10 yds allowed.
Miles Sanders is off to a hot start in a contract season but is running into a buzz saw in Jacksonville’s top rated rushing defense in Week 4. Jalen Hurts may struggle to move the ball on the ground with his legs as well.
Derrick Henry is facing the Colts’ 3rd ranked rushing defense.
D’Andre Swift is out, leaving an excellent opportunity for Jamaal Williams to go off against Seattle’s 31st ranked rushing defense.
Similar to Jamaal Williams, Khalil Herbert will have an opportunity to run wild against NYG’s 25th ranked rushing defense in David Montgomery’s absence.