We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results in Week 14
- SF has now outscored opponents 134 – 49 in their L4 games and posted 456 yards of total offense, finished 8-11 on 3rd down and 4-4 on RZ trips last week against Philly, a week removed from routing Seattle 31-13 and posting 377 yards of offense on Thanksgiving night. SF ranks 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency, 1st in EPA/play, 2nd in YPP, 5th in 3rd down conversion rate, 3rd in RZ TD %, 2nd in RZ trips per game, 8th in passing YPG and 7th in passes of 10+ yards. They will have every opportunity to torch this Seattle defense that ranks 32nd in defensive efficiency, 29th in series conversion rate allowed, 29th in 3rd down conversion rate, 25th in passing YPG allowed, 27th in passes of 10+ and 27th in RZ TD %. SF should have an advantage in passing the ball, converting on 3rd down and in the red zone against a Seahawks’ defense that just allowed Dallas to go for 411 yards, 41 points and let Dak finish with 299 yards and 3 TD’s on 29-41 passing in Week 13.
- Minnesota’s defense has held opponents to an average of 17 PPG over the L7 weeks and opponents under 20 points in 5 of the L7 weeks. On the season they rank 4th in defensive efficiency, 7th in EPA/play, 9th in YPP, 7th in rushing YPG allowed and 3rd in RZ trips per game, with an excellent matchup against a Raiders’ offense that ranks 29th in offensive efficiency, 26th in EPA/play, series conversion rate and YPP, 31st in rushing YPG and 32nd in runs of 10+ yards. Minnesota will have an opportunity to put the clamps down on a Raiders’ offense that has cleared the 17-point mark just two times in 2023.
- Philly just allowed San Fran to score TD’s on their final 6 drives of the game last week, post 456 yards of offense and finish 4-4 on RZ trips; on the season they rank 31st in defensive efficiency and series conversion rate allowed, 23rd in YPP, 32nd in 3rd down conversion rate, 31st in passing YPG, 29th in RZ TD % and 26th in RZ trips per game, with a less than optimal matchup against a Dallas offense that ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency, 4th in EPA/play, 5th in YPP, 2nd in 3rd down conversion rate, 3rd in passing YPG and 1st in RZ trips per game. Dak Prescott tallied 374 yards and 3 TD’s on 29-44 passing last time they played Philly and led the Cowboys to 3-5 on RZ trips, while CeeDee Lamb caught 11 balls for 191 yards on 16 targets. Dallas will be able to move the ball through the air, move the chains on 3rd down and have opportunities to convert RZ trips into TD’s against a Philly defense that has been exposed for the last month and a half.
Matchups in the Trenches
- KC and Buffalo rank as the two top OL’s in the league in sacks allowed, while their DL’s have been among the league’s top 6 in sacks on the defensive side of the ball. KC ranks 25th in penalty YPG and 32nd in offensive penalty YPG, while the Bills rank 28th in turnovers per game and 24th in offensive penalty YPG. The team that wins in the trenches in this matchup by forcing turnovers or preventing them will likely win the game.
- Detroit’s top 5 OL that ranks 4th in sacks allowed will be facing a Chicago pass rush that ranks 32nd in sacks on the season and 24th in QB hits per game. Goff was sacked just twice two weeks ago when Detroit faced Chicago at home, but he did throw 3 INT’s, finishing 23-35 for 236 yards and 2 TD’s. The weather was looking very bad for Sunday in Chicago earlier in the week, but it has improved significantly – winds of 10-12 MPH in the forecast and temperatures in the low 30’s will likely have an impact on Goff, who over the last two years has thrown 40 TD’s, 9 INT’s and 269 passing YPG at home and 15 TD’s, 7 INT’s and 255 passing YPG on the road.
- Matthew Stafford has enjoyed excellent pass protection in 2023 behind a Rams’ OL that ranks 5th in the league in sacks allowed, but will be facing the league’s top pass rush in Baltimore on Sunday. Baltimore has gotten to the opposing passer at least 4 times in 5 of the L7 weeks and ranks 6th in the league in passing YPG allowed; protecting Stafford will be critical to LA’s success on Sunday in Baltimore.
- Jordan Love has been excellent the last two weeks behind a Green Bay OL that ranks 7th in the league in sacks allowed, now heading to NY to take on a Giants’ pass rush that ranks 29th in sacks on the season. Over the L4 weeks, Jordan Love is averaging 287 passing YPG with a 64% completion rate and has thrown 10 TD’s and 2 INT’s.
- Miami has quietly had one of the league’s best pass rushes in 2023, ranking 3rd in the league in sacks with an excellent matchup against a Tennessee OL that ranks 28th in sacks allowed. Since Jalen Ramsey has returned, this defense has surged in our defensive efficiency ratings from 25th in Week 7 to 15th heading into Week 14; Will Levis is going to be sledding uphill in the pocket against a Miami defense that got to Sam Howell 3 times last week and held him to just 127 yards and an INT on 12-23 passing in Week 13.
- The Chargers are tied with the Dolphins for 3rd in the league in sacks on the season and now will be facing a Denver OL that ranks 27th in sacks allowed. LA got to Bailey Zappe 5 times in Week 13 and held him to just 141 yards on 13-25 passing.
- Indy ranks 2nd in the league on the DL in sacks on the season with a matchup against Cincy’s OL that ranks 23rd in sacks allowed in 2023. Jake Browning just looked like Joe Montana on MNF against a Jacksonville DL that ranks 25th in the league in sacks per game, but this week’s matchup against Indy will create a much different circumstance in the pocket for Browning, who was sacked 4 times and threw for just 227 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT on 19-26 passing two weeks ago against a Pittsburgh DL that ranks 11th in the league in sacks. Indy has gotten to Will Levis and Baker Mayfield 6 times a piece in each of the L2 weeks and has an opportunity to sustain similar success against a below average OL in Cincy.
Red Zone Matchup Analysis
- Dallas leads the league in RZ trips on the season and will be facing a Philly defense that is situationally bad on 3rd down and in the RZ. The Eagles rank 26th in RZ trips allowed and 29th in RZ TD %. Dallas logged 8 RZ trips against Seattle last week and posted TD’s on 4 of them, while the Eagles allowed SF to finish 4-4 on RZ trips in Week 13 at home. CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson rank 1st and 2nd in the league respectively in RZ targets per game, while Lamb ranks 7th in RZ receptions per game and has caught 7 TD’s in 2023.
- Green Bay has found its stride on the offensive side of the ball over the last month; we previewed their advantage in the trenches on the OL and now are here to discuss their advantage in the RZ. GB ranks 10th in RZ trips per game, while NYG ranks 28th in RZ trips allowed and 24th in RZ TD %. Christian Watson leads GB in RZ targets per game and ranks 9th in the league in the same metric; he has caught a TD in each of the L3 weeks and will have an opportunity to find paydirt again on MNF against a Giants’ defense that struggles to defend inside its own 20-yard line.
- Jacksonville does not have clarity at the QB position as Trevor Lawrence is battling a high ankle sprain; on the season Jacksonville has not been efficient in moving the ball into the RZ, ranking 21st in RZ trips in total. They’ll be facing a Cleveland defense that ranks 2nd in the league in RZ trips allowed but 25th in RZ TD % when opponents reach it.
- Las Vegas has cleared the 17-point mark just twice in 2023 and struggles to move the ball into its opponent’s RZ, ranking 22nd in the league in RZ trips on the season; they’ll be facing a Minny defense that ranks 2nd in RZ trips allowed, 9th in RZ TD % and has held opponents to an average of 17 PPG over the L7 weeks and opponents under 20 points in 5 of the L7 weeks.
Player Props of the Week
Brock Purdy O256.5 Passing Yards – DKNG
- Brock Purdy is averaging 265 passing YPG in 2023 and has cleared this number in 5 of the L6 weeks. Purdy leads a San Fran offense that ranks 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency, 1st in EPA/play, series conversion rate and early down success rate, 2nd in YPP, 5th in 3rd down conversion rate, 8th in passing YPG, 1st in YPA and 7th in passes of 10+ yards. They are efficient across the board thanks to great scheme, elite talent at the skill positions and Purdy’s ability to distribute the ball.
- Seattle ranks 32nd in defensive efficiency, 29th in series conversion rate allowed, 29th in 3rd down conversion rate, 25th in passing YPG and 27th in passes of 10+ yards allowed.
- Brock Purdy’s home / road splits are noticeable in 2023 – he is averaging a 76% completion rate and 309 passing YPG at home, while he completes just 66% of passes and 235 passing YPG on the road.
- Purdy did not have a particularly strong game two weeks ago on the road in Seattle as they bracketed Brandon Aiyuk with double teams most of the game, but this is a bet on Kyle Shanahan as much as it is Purdy to identify what Seattle did to keep Purdy in check, correct the mistakes he’s made and lead an offense that’s been one of the most efficient in the league since he took over on the 2nd half of the 2022 season. Take Purdy O256.5 passing yards.
Deebo Samuel O49.5 Receiving Yards – DKNG
- Sticking to SF’s matchup with Seattle, Deebo Samuel is a key piece of a high-octane San Fran offensive attack that uses motion and the run game to set up play action and get their skill players open in space. He exists in an offense that ranks 8th in passing YPG and 7th in passes of 10+ yards with an excellent matchup against a Seattle defense that ranks 25th in passing YPG allowed and 27th in passes of 10+ yards on the season.
- Deebo has cleared this number in each of the L3 weeks since returning from injury, and should have an opportunity to have a significant impact on Sunday against a Seattle defense that chose to bracket Brandon Aiyuk two weeks ago when they faced SF on Thanksgiving night. In that game, Deebo caught 7 balls for 79 yards on 9 targets. In the NFC Wild Card matchup against Seattle last January, he caught 6 balls for 133 yards and a TD on 9 targets.
- Deebo is one of the most violent runners in football and leads the league among WR’s in yards after the catch. If Purdy is going to have success against Seattle’s secondary, Deebo is going to be involved in motion and across the middle of the field. Seattle misses tackles at the fourth-highest rate in the league. Take Deebo O49.5 receiving yards.
CeeDee Lamb O90.5 Receiving Yards – DKNG
- CeeDee Lamb is one of the most explosive WR’s in football and has been on a tear over the L7 weeks in particular in which he is averaging 9 receptions, 12.3 targets, 118 receiving YPG and 6 TD’s. He has cleared 90.5 receiving yards in 5 of the L7 weeks and is naturally the most targeted wideout in a Dallas offense that ranks 3rd in the league in offensive efficiency, 4th in EPA/play, 5th in YPP, 3rd in passing YPG and 1st in passes of 10+ yards.
- Dallas will be facing a Philly defense that ranks 31st in defensive efficiency, 31st in series conversion rate, 32nd in 3rd down conversion rate, 31st in passing YPG allowed and 31st in passes of 10+ allowed. When Lamb last faced Philly, he had his best game of the season, catching 11 balls on 16 targets for 191 yards (17.4 yards per reception).
- Lamb should be able to get to this number on volume of targets against a Philly secondary that has been torched over the L5 weeks that just allowed Brock Purdy (19-27, 314 yards, 4 TD’s), Josh Allen (29-51, 339 yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT), Dak Prescott (29-44, 374 yards, 3 TD’s) and Sam Howell (39-52, 397 yards, 4 TD’s, 1 INT) all to pick them apart. Take Lamb on volume O90.5 receiving yards on SNF.
OVER OF THE WEEK
Ravens / Rams OVER 39.5
- This matchup will feature two efficient offenses that can move the ball up and down the field. Baltimore is off the bye and ranks 11th in our offensive efficiency metrics, 8th in EPA/play and series conversion rate, 6th in YPP, 2nd in early down success rate, 9th in 3rd down conversion rate, 1st in rushing YPG, 2nd in YPC and 3rd in runs of 10+ yards. They rank 2nd in the league in RZ trips per game and 3rd in RZ TD % once they arrive. LA on the opposite side of the ball has been up and down this season but in the aggregate ranks 9th in offensive efficiency, 10th in EPA/play and 10th in series conversion rate. Matthew Stafford leads a passing attack that ranks 10th in passes of 10+ yards and 6th in RZ TD % behind an OL that has succeeded in pass protection, ranking just 4th in sacks allowed on the season.
- Baltimore’s defense has been excellent this season, ranking 1st in defensive efficiency and EPA/play, 2nd in series conversion rate, 1st in YPP allowed, 6th in 3rd down conversion rate, 6th in passing YPG, 3rd in passes of 10+ yards allowed and 3rd in both RZ trips allowed and RZ TD %. That said, the Rams just faced a Cleveland defense in Week 13 that grades as well as Baltimore does on paper and posted 36 points and 399 yards of total offense in a game where Stafford threw for 279 yards and 3 TD’s on 22-37 passing against a Cleveland secondary that was missing Denzel Ward but on the season ranks 1st in passing YPG allowed and 1st in passes of 10+ yards allowed.
- The Rams’ defense is pedestrian across the board, ranking 19th in defensive efficiency, 22nd in EPA/play, 18th in series conversion rate, 20th in 3rd down conversion rate, 23rd in sacks per game and 25th in QB hits per game. Over the L6 weeks, Baltimore has scored at least 31 points in 5 games and is averaging 32 PPG in a stretch where they are 4-2 to the OVER.
- This total opened at 44.5 and has moved all the way down to 39.5, thanks in part to a weather forecast early in the week that was projecting significant winds of 16-18 MPH and precipitation. That forecast has since changed – there will be precipitation, but wind will not be a factor under 10 MPH. Take OVER 39.5 in this one.
MODEL PICKS
Our models are 29-14-2 (67.4%) in 2023 and have 7 picks for the Sunday slate. Head over to the About us section to read up on the models and methodology.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 14, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
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