We provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
Week 5 is here, and our Models are LIVE! Head over to the site and browse to the Models section of the Dashboard to check on our four Overs / Unders. Models finished 48-26-2 (65%) in 2023 and are 61%+ over the L3 Years!
Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results
CIN (+2.5) vs BAL; O/U 48.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: CIN vs BAL
- This game is going to feature two of the most potent offenses in the football going head to head in Cincinnati. Cincy ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency and 7th in EPA/play, while Baltimore ranks 6th in offensive efficiency and 4th in EPA/play, which points to the high total of O/U 48.5. Expect points and offensive production on both sides of the ball in this game.
- Cincy got a much needed win on the road in Carolina to improve to 1-3; Burrow threw for just 232 yards on 22-31 passing, but targeted Ja’Marr Chase (3 receptions, 85 yards, 1 TD) and Tee Higgins (6 receptions, 60 yards) 16 times in total. Cincy will face a Baltimore defense that leads the league in defending the run. Their secondary ranks 30th in passing YPG and passes of 10+ yards allowed, now facing a Cincy passing attack that ranks 4th in the league in passes of 10+ yards. If Cincy is competitive in this game, it will be because of outstanding performances from Burrow, Chase and Higgins.
- Baltimore’s acquisition of Derrick Henry in the offseason has paid immediate dividends; they’ve been one of the best rushing offenses in football over the L3 years, but opposing defenses are forced to stack the box when Henry is in the backfield, which opens up passing lanes for Lamar and company off play action. Derrick Henry has rushed for 151 yards and 199 yards in his last two games, and now will face a Cincy run defense that ranks 25th in rushing YPG allowed. Chuba Hubbard (18 carries, 104 yards, 5.8 YPC, 1 TD), Isiah Pacheco (19 carries, 90 yards, 4.7 YPC) and Rhamondre Stevenson (25 carries, 120 yards, 1 TD) have all had significant success against a front 7 that is missing DJ Reader badly.
DEN (-2.5) vs LV; O/U 35.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: DEN vs LV.
- The Raiders lack explosive playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, especially considering that Davante Adams has effectively checked out as a member of the team. Their offense ranks 30th in the league in EPA/play, 24th in 3rd down conversion rate, 31st in rushing YPG and 27th in % of drives to reach the RZ. They are going to encounter a bit of a buzz saw in Week 5 against a Denver defense that ranks 7th in defensive efficiency, 2nd in EPA/play, 1st in YPP allowed, 3rd in passing YPG, 9th in YPC, 1st in RZ trips allowed and 2nd in RZ TD %.
- Denver is allowing under 14 PPG through the first four weeks of the season with a pass rush that ranks 2nd in the league in both sacks and QB hits, and will now line up against a Raiders’ OL that ranks 26th in sacks allowed. In the last two weeks alone, the Broncos sacked Aaron Rodgers and Baker Mayfield 12 times in total. Baltimore’s high-powered pass rush got to Gardner Minshew 5 times in Week 2. Do not expect Minshew to have much time in the pocket to allow routes to develop, and do not expect the Raiders’ 31st ranked rushing attack to have much success against a Denver front that ranks 9th in YPC allowed.
JAX (-2.5) vs IND; O/U 46.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: JAX vs IND
- This AFC South matchup will feature two of the weakest secondaries in football, which bodes well for offensive production on either side of the ball through the air. Indy ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, 30th in 3rd down conversion rate, 27th in passing YPG allowed, 31st in rushing YPG allowed and 26th in RZ TD %, while Jacksonville ranks 31st in defensive efficiency and EPA/play, 31st in passing YPG and 28th in passes of 10+ yards.
- Anthony Richardson is listed as day-to-day in practice this week; if he cannot go, Joe Flacco will have an opportunity to take advantage of a Jags’ secondary that has been torched by CJ Stroud (27-40, 345 yards, 2 TD’s), Josh Allen (23-30, 263 yards, 4 TD’s) and Tua Tagovailoa (23-37, 338 yards, 1 TD) in the first month of 2024. It is important to remember that Joe Flacco completed 61%+ of his passes and threw for 304 YPG in his final 6 starts of the 2023 regular season and playoffs in Cleveland.
- If Flacco starts, he will operate behind an OL that ranks 5th in sacks allowed, facing a JAX pass rush that ranks 26th in sacks through the first four weeks of the season.
- Trevor Lawrence has struggled thus far in 2024 and leads a Jaguars’ offense that ranks 24th in EPA/play and 27th in passing YPG. That said, he will have an opportunity to right the ship at home against an Indy secondary that’s ranks 25th in passing YPG allowed that Justin Fields (22-34, 312 yards, 1 TD) and Caleb Williams (33-52, 363 yards, 2 TD’s, 2 INT’s) both to have significant success in each of the L2 weeks.
SF (-7.5) vs ARI; O/U 49.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: SF vs ARI
- SF continues to showcase itself as one of the most efficient offenses in football, ranking 6th in EPA/play, 2nd in YPP, 3rd in passing YPG, 8th in rushing YPG and 5th in RZ trips per game. They will face an ARI defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, 24th in EPA/play, 25th in passes of 10+ yards allowed and 26th in rushing YPG.
- SF just posted 431 yards of total offense at home against NE, and will now welcome an ARI defense that allowed Washington to post 449 yards of total offense in Week 4. Brian Robinson and Jeremy McNichols combined for 169 yards in total on the ground on 29 carries in Week 4, while Detroit ran for 187 yards in total in Week 3. Jordan Mason has cleared 100 yards in three of four starts in 2024 and should be in line for another high volume / production day against Arizona in Week 5.
LAR (+3) vs GB; O/U 48.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: LAR vs GB
- Expect offensive production on either or both sides of the ball in this matchup that will feature a Rams’ defense that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency and 32nd in both EPA/play and YPP allowed, and a GB defense that ranks 24th in YPP allowed, 26th in passing YPG allowed, 25th in RZ trips allowed and 23rd in RZ TD %. The 49ers (425 total yards), Cardinals (489 total yards) and Lions (363 total yards) have all exploited the Rams, while the Vikings just posted 374 yards and 31 points on GB at Lambeau in Week 4 and the Eagles racked up 410 total yards and 34 points in Brazil.
- GB’s offensive metrics are somewhat muted by Jordan Love’s absence in Weeks 2 and 3, but he threw for 260 yards and 2 TD’s in Week 1 against Philly and more recently finished 32-54 for 389 yards, 4 TD’s and 3 INT’s against Minnesota in Week 4. He will now face a Rams’ defense that ranks 32nd in EPA/play, YPP allowed and YPA.
- Josh Jacobs has faced some stout run defenses in the L2 weeks against Minnesota and Tennessee, but ran for 151 yards on 32 carries in Week 2 against an Indy run defense that ranks 28th in the league in rushing YPG allowed. He will now face a Rams’ run defense that currently ranks 32nd in rushing yards allowed. D’Andre Swift (16 carries, 93 yards, 5.8 YPC, 1 TD), James Conner (21 carries, 122 yards, 5.8 YPC, 1 TD) and David Montgomery (17 carries, 91 yards, 5.4 YPC, 1 TD) have all had significant success against this unit, which bodes well for Jacobs’ expected production in Week 5.
Over of the Week
MIN vs NYJ – OVER 40.5 – FD
Game Matchup Dashboard: MIN vs NYJ
- On paper, this looks like a matchup of two of the most high-powered defenses in the league, but our model tells us that the total skews too low and take the OVER.
- Minnesota’s offensive has been excellent this season, ranking 3rd in EPA/play and 6th in YPP with Sam Darnold at the helm. The Vikings just posted 31 points and 375 yards of total offense on the road against Green Bay in Week 4, a week after Sam Darnold threw for 4 TD’s at home against Houston in Week 3.
- Darnold is enjoying a bit of a mid-career renaissance in Minnesota and leads an offense that is averaging 29.0 PPG over to London to face a Jets’ defense that’s been one of the league’s best over the L3 seasons, but has not faced the strongest slate of offensive firepower yet in 2024. Over the last three weeks, the Jets have faced the Broncos (27th in EPA/play), Patriots (26th in EPA/play) and Titans (30th in EPA/play). The Jets allowed the 49ers to post 401 yards and 32 points in Week 1 on the road on MNF.
- The Jets meanwhile have their work cut out for them on the offensive side of the ball, facing a Minnesota defense that ranks 1st in the league in EPA/play and 10th in YPP. That said, Aaron Rodgers will face a Vikings’ secondary that ranks 32nd in both passing YPG and passes of 10+ yards allowed that just allowed Jordan Love to throw for 389 yards and 4 TD’s in Week 4 at Lambeau.
- There is a chance of rain in the forecast on Sunday which makes weather a consideration, but at a total of 40.5, there’s enough offensive firepower on the field on either side of the ball to get this over the hump in London. Expect the Jets to take advantage of deficiencies in Minnesota’s secondary and the Vikings to scheme Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison open against a Jets’ defense that has not been tested by efficient offenses over the L3 weeks, and take OVER 40.5.
Player Props of the Week
Player Matchup Dashboard: Rushing YPG
Josh Jacobs O65.5 Rushing Yards – FD
- Josh Jacobs faced a stout run defense in Minnesota (2nd in rushing YPG allowed) last week, but has been a focal point of the offense since relocating to Green Bay in 2024. He ran for 151 yards on 32 carries in Week 2 against Indy (31st in rushing YPG) and for 84 yards on 16 carries in Week 1 against Philly (22nd in rushing YPG).
- Jacobs will now face a Rams’ run defense that ranks 32nd in the NFL in rushing YPG allowed in Week 5. D’Andre Swift (16 carries, 93 yards, 1 TD), Jordan Mason (19 carries, 77 yards), James Conner (21 carries, 122 yards, 1 TD) and David Montgomery (17 carries, 91 yards, 1 TD) have all had significant success against the Rams in 2024.
- Expect Jacobs to have a prominent role in the offense in Week 5 against a Rams’ defense that ranks 32nd in EPA/play and 29th in 3rd down conversion rate. With Jordan Love back in the saddle, the Packers should have opportunities to extend drives and post some significant offensive production. Expect Jacobs to be heavily involved and take O67.5 rushing yards.
Derrick Henry O83.5 Rushing Yards – FD
- Derrick Henry has fit in as expected in Baltimore’s offensive scheme as the bellcow back in an offensive that leads the league in rushing YPG, YPC and runs of 10+ yards. In the L2 weeks, Henry has rushed for 151 yards on 25 carries against Dallas and 199 yards on 24 carries against Buffalo.
- He is averaging 120 rushing YPG and 6.0 YPC, and will now face a Cincy run defense that ranks 25th in rushing YPG allowed. Chuba Hubbard (18 carries, 104 yards, 1 TD), Isiah Pacheco (19 carries, 90 yards) and Rhamondre Stevenson (25 carries, 120 yards, 1 TD) have all run with efficiency against this Bengals’ front 7 that is missing DJ Reader badly in 2024.
- Henry has cleared this number in each of the L3 weeks and has done so with ease in the last two. Establishing the run is at the core of Baltimore’s offensive identity, and they should remain committed to that in Week 5 against Cincy, particularly considering that there are winds of 13 MPH in the forecast. Expect Henry to sustain similar success that Hubbard, Pacheco and Stevenson have against the Bengals in Week 5 and take O83.5 rushing yards.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 5 of the 2024 season, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
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