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Quick Hitters and Trends Across the League
- MIN is 3-1 to the OVER in their L4 games; their defense has allowed 29 points, 31 and 30 in 3 of L4 games against the Packers, Lions and Rams respectively. They now face Indy, who has benched Anthony Richardson and will start Joe Flacco.
- Cincy is 5-2 to the OVER in their L7 games, now facing the Raiders who are 3-1 to the OVER in their L4 and have allowed 28+ points in that stretch.
- BAL is 7-1 to the OVER in 2024, but now facing a DEN defense that ranks 2nd in the league in EPA/play and 1st in YPP allowed. DEN meanwhile is 4-0 to the OVER in their L4 games.
- Detroit is 6-1 ATS this season and 4-0 to the OVER in L4 games, but will head to GB on Sunday where wind and rain are in the forecast.
- New England is 1-6 ATS in their L7 games.
- TB is 5-0 to the OVER in their L5 games and now hit the road to face Patrick Mahomes and KC.
Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results
CIN (-7.5) vs LV; O/U 45.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: CIN vs LV
- The Bengals enter Week 9 at 3-5 off a 37-17 loss at home against the Eagles in which their offense was completely stifled in the 2nd half after scoring a TD on their opening possession. That said, this offense still ranks 2nd in the league in offensive efficiency, 8th in EPA/play, 9th in passing YPG, 4th in RZ TD % and 6th in turnovers per game. WR Tee Higgins has been in and out of the lineup and is doubtful this weekend, but they’ve still managed to demonstrate this season that they are capable of moving the ball efficiently and putting points on the board.
- Cincy will face an LV defense that ranks 23rd in our defensive efficiency matric, 25th in YPC, 27th in RZ trips allowed per game and 26th in RZ TD %. LV opponents are averaging 28+ PPG over the L4 weeks, and even the lowly Panthers posted 36 points of offense on this defense in Andy Dalton’s first start in relief of Bryce Young.
- Cincy is in must-win mode and should have the capacity to move the ball on this defense; when they do get the ball into the red zone, they should be capable of putting the ball into the end zone. Cincy is 5-2 to the OVER in their L7 games, now facing the Raiders who are 3-1 to the OVER in their L4.
PHI (-7.5) vs JAX; O/U 45.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: PHI vs JAX
- Philly’s offense may have turned a corner over the L2 weeks – they posted 28 points / 339 total yards of offense on the Giants (269 yards rushing) and 27 points / 397 total yards of offense on the Bengals (161 yards rushing) last week. On the season, they rank 5th in EPA/play, 10th in offensive efficiency, 2nd in rushing YPG and 9th in RZ trips per game.
- They will face a Jags’ defense that is among the league’s worst, ranking 31st in defensive efficiency, 30th in EPA/play and YPP allowed, 30th in passing YPG, 31st in YPA and 29th in passes of 10+ yards allowed. The Jags also rank 27th in RZ trips allowed per game and 28th in RZ TD % and have a lackluster pass rush – 22nd in sacks and 24th in QB hits.
- Philly has committed to the run game with Saquon Barkley, but Hurts, AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith could all be in for big performances against one of the league’s 5 worst secondaries that has been torched by Josh Allen (23-30, 263 yards, 4 TD’s), CJ Stroud (27-40, 345 yards, 2 TD’s), Joe Flacco (33-44, 359 yards, 3 TD’s) and Caleb Williams (23-29, 226 yards, 4 TD’s, 1 INT) in the last month and a half. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith meanwhile combined for 11 receptions, 169 yards and 1 TD last week for a Philly offense that will once again be without TE Dallas Goedert.
ATL (-3.0) vs DAL; O/U 51.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: ATL vs DAL
- Atlanta’s offense continues to excel with Kirk Cousins under center, ranking 9th in EPA/play, 7th in YPP, 5th in early down success rate, 4th in passing YPG, 5th in passes of 10+ yards and 10th in YPC thus far in 2024. They are averaging nearly 30 PPG in their L4 games and most recently posted 394 yards of offense on the Bucs in Tampa Bay last week, including outstanding efficiency from Kirk Cousins (23-29, 276 yards, 4 TD’s).
- The Cowboys enter this game off a convincing loss on the road on SNF against the 49ers and are banged up on defense – they will be without CB DaRon Bland, LB Micah Parsons and DT Jordan Phillips, while CB Trevon Diggs, DT Linval Joseph and LB’s Eric Kendrick sand Nick Vigil are all listed as questionable. Diggs is dealing with a tear in his calf.
- Injuries aside, the Cowboys rank 27th in defensive efficiency, 32nd in EPA/play, 29th in YPP allowed, 30th in YPA, 31st in rushing YPG, 27th in YPC, 27th in runs of 10+ yards and 32nd in RZ TD %. The Lions (492 yards total offense, 47 points) and 49ers (469 yards, 30 points) have both thrashed this defense in the L2 weeks.
- Bijan Robinson has been more of a centerpiece of Atlanta’s running game in 2024 and now faces one of the worst run defenses in football that just allowed SF (223 rushing yards), DET (184 rushing yards) and BAL (274 rushing yards) to roll over them over the last month and a half. Robinson should get touches in this game and have opportunities to get to the second level against a front 7 that has cluster injuries on the defensive line at both DT and DE.
KC (-9.5) vs TB; O/U 45.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: KC vs TB
- Kansas City is dealing with ongoing injuries to the WR position but still ranks 8th in the league in offensive efficiency, 5th in series conversion rate, 2nd in early down success rate, 1st in 3rd down conversion rate and 7th in RZ trips per game. Mahomes and company will face a TB defense that ranks 27th in EPA/play, 28th in YPP, 29th in passing YPG, 23rd in YPA, 26th in passes of 10+ yards, 30th in YPC, and 30th in RZ trips allowed per game.
- Baker Mayfield was particularly impressive last week against Atlanta after he finished with 330 yards, 3 TD’s and 2 INT’s on 37-50 passing when you consider that he was without both WR’s Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. He will face a much more difficult test on the road in Week 9 against a KC defense that ranks 8th in defensive efficiency, 5th in EPA/play and YPP allowed, 10th in YPA, 6th in passes of 10+ yards allowed, 2nd in rushing YPG, YPC and runs of 10+ yards and 10th in RZ TD %.
- Pat Mahomes has cleared 300 yards passing just once this season, but will have plenty of opportunity to move the ball through the air against one of the most suspect secondaries in football that was just torched by Kirk Cousins (23-29, 276 yards, 4 TD’s) last week.
- TB’s defense ranks 30th in the league in TE receiving yards allowed; Kyle Pitts caught 4 balls for 91 yards and 2 TD’s in Week 8. Travis Kelce started this season slow, but has caught at least 7 balls and finished with 70+ receiving yards in 3 of his L4 games. Kelce caught 10 balls for 90 yards and 1 TD on 12 targets last week against LV and should be in line for a big day against the Bucs on MNF.
OVER of the Week
BAL / DEN – OVER 46.5 – FD
Game Matchup Dashboard: BAL vs DEN
- The Ravens lost outright on the road last week in Cleveland in Week 8 but enter this week as the league’s undisputed offensive juggernaut, ranking in the league’s top 5 in nearly every offensive metric that we track. They’ve demonstrated the ability to put points on the board through the air and on the ground against almost every defense that they have faced and have posted 380+ yards of total offense in every game this season and have posted 450+ yards in 5 of 8 games.
- The quality of Denver’s defense is certainly a consideration as it pertains to their metrics, but they’ve not faced the most high-powered slate of opposing offenses this season with opponents that include Seattle (25th in offensive efficiency), Pittsburgh (18th), NY Jets in downpour (17th), Las Vegas (27th), New Orleans (14th, missing Derek Carr) and Carolina (29th).
- Denver themselves has showed flashes of promise on the offensive side of the ball with Bo Nix under center and Sean Payton calling plays – the Broncos should have opportunity to move the ball through the air against a Baltimore secondary that ranks 32nd in passing YPG, 27th in YPA and 32nd in passes of 10+ yards.
- Baltimore is a dead OVER team this season (7-1 to the OVER), thanks largely in part to a well-balanced offensive attack that’s difficult to slow down with Derrick Henry’s addition to the backfield and a secondary that is among the league’s worst against the pass. Expect Baltimore to have success moving the ball against Denver at home and for the Broncos to have some success through the air, and take the OVER 46.5.
Player Props of the Week
Player Matchup Dashboard: Passing YPG
Joe Flacco O235.5 Passing Yards – FD
- Joe Flacco returns under center for the Colts, who benched Anthony Richardson after he checked himself out of the game voluntarily in the middle of a drive last week against the Texans. Flacco shined in the starting role for Cleveland last year and once again relished the opportunity to step into the spotlight for the Colts in early October against the Jags in a game where he threw for 359 yards and 2 TD’s on 33-44 passing.
- Flacco will face a Vikings’ secondary that ranks 31st in passing YPG and 30th in passes of 10+ yards. Minnesota is excellent in defending the run, ranking 3rd in rushing YPG, 4th in YPC and 3rd in runs of 10+ yards, meaning that the Colts will need Flacco to stand in the pocket and push the ball down the field to stay competitive in this game.
- Five of the L6 QB’s to face this secondary have cleared this number, and a few in particular have done so in spectacular fashion – Brock Purdy (26-36, 319 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and Jordan Love (32-54, 389 yards, 4 TD’s, 3 INT’s). Expect Flacco to return and push the ball down the field and take the O235.5 passing yards.
Player Matchup Dashboard: Rushing YPG
Bijan Robinson O71.5 Rushing Yards – FD
- Bijan Robinson will face one of the worst run defenses in football in the Cowboys that ranks 31st in rushing YPG, 27th in YPC, 27th in runs of 10+ yards and just allowed SF (223 rushing yards), DET (184 rushing yards) and BAL (274 rushing yards) to roll over them over the last month and a half.
- Robinson has cleared this number in 2 of his L3 games, both of which were against defenses that ranked in the league’s bottom 10 in rushing defense. Robinson should get touches in this game and have opportunities to get to the second level against a front 7 that has cluster injuries on the defensive line at both DT and DE. Take the O71.5 rushing yards.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 9 of the 2024 season, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
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