We have re-branded to Gridiron Intel! We will continue to provide impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
Our Models are LIVE! Head over to the site and browse to the Models section of the Dashboard to check on our four Overs / Unders. Models finished 48-26-2 (65%) in 2023 and are 61%+ over the L3 years!
Quick Hitters and Trends Across the League
- The Bills are 3-1 to the OVER and ATS in their L4 games, while the Colts are 7-2 ATS and 4-0 to the UNDER in their L4 games.
- TB is 6-0 to the OVER in their L6 games, while the 49ers are 4-2 to the OVER in the same stretch.
- Detroit is 6-0 ATS in their L6 games and 4-1 to the OVER in their L5 games.
- Arizona is 4-1 ATS in their L5 games, while the Jets are 1-5 ATS in their L6 games.
- Carolina is 6-1 to the OVER in their L7 games and 1-6 ATS in the same stretch as they head to Germany to face the Giants, who are 0-4 ATS and SU in their L4.
- Washington is 7-1 ATS in their L8 games and 5-2 to the OVER in their L7 games.
- Dallas is 1-6 ATS in their L7 games, now facing a Philly offense that is rounding into form.
- Denver is 5-0 to the OVER in their L5 games and 5-2 ATS in their L7 games, now facing the undefeated Chiefs in Week 10.
Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results
DAL (+7.0) vs PHI; O/U 43.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: DAL vs PHI
- The Eagles are off a shockingly close victory over the Jags at home in Week 9, but are winners of their L3 games nonetheless with an offense that is rounding into form and just posted 437 yards against Jacksonville, including 237 yards on the ground. Philly’s offense ranks 10th in offensive efficiency and 7th in EPA/play, and will now head do Dallas to face a Cowboys’ defense that ranks 29th in defensive efficiency and 32nd in EPA/play. The Eagles rank 9th in RZ trips per game and now face a DAL defense that ranks 32nd in RZ TD %.
- Saquon Barkley just posted 199 total yards from scrimmage and leads a Philly run game that ranks 2nd in rushing YPG, 8th in YPC and 5th in runs of 10+ yards. He will line up against a Cowboys’ run defense that ranks 31st in rushing YPG, 27th in YPC and 24th in runs of 10+ yards that just allowed Bijan Robinson to post 145 total yards from scrimmage (86 yards rushing, 59 yards receiving).
- Dallas will be without Dak Prescott and will turn to Cooper Rush to take the helm of an offense that this season ranks 20th in offensive efficiency, 23rd in YPA, 31st in rushing YPG and YPC, 30th in runs of 10+ yards, 24th in RZ trips and 31st in RZ TD %. They will line up against an Eagles’ defense that’s had an infusion of youth at nearly every level and ranks 7th in defensive efficiency, 5th in YPP allowed, 7th in passing YPG allowed, 5th in rushing YPG allowed, 10th in RZ trips allowed and 6th in RZ TD %. Dallas is likely to have issues sustaining offense against this defense.
- The Cowboys are 1-6 ATS in their L7 games and could be facing a buzzsaw on Sunday against a Philly team that looks to be rounding into form heading into mid-November.
LAC (-7.5) vs TEN; O/U 38.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: LAC vs TEN
- The Chargers enter this matchup at home with one of the league’s best defenses, now facing a TEN offense that will have Will Levis back in the saddle. The Chargers rank 2nd in defensive efficiency, 1st in EPA/play, 6th in YPP allowed, 3rd in 3rd down conversion rate, 10th in passing YPG allowed, 8th in rushing YPG allowed, 2nd in RZ TD %, 1st in RZ trips allowed and 7th in sacks per game.
- The Chargers held the Browns last week to just 292 yards of total offense, 70 of which game on a garbage time TD drive late in the 4th quarter. They forced 3 TO’s, held the Browns to just 4.1 YPP and just 79 yards rushing (3.3 YPC). The Chargers lead the league in points per game allowed (12.9 PPG) and are 7-1 to the UNDER this season.
- The Titans rank 31st in the league in offensive efficiency, 29th in EPA/play, 28th in 3rd down conversion rate, 30th in passing YPG, 24th in RZ TD % and 31st in TO’s / game. Levis has played just 5 games this season and is tied for 2nd in the league among QB’s with 10 turnovers (7 INT’s, 3 fumbles lost). The Titans may have just posted 400 yards of offense against NE’s 30th ranked defense by efficiency, but it’s likely going to be a different story on Sunday against the Chargers, who are winners of 3 of their L5 games with a +40 point differential in that span.
IND (+3.5) vs BUF; O/U 46.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: IND vs BUF
- Buffalo enters this game off a dramatic win at home over the Bills in which they posted TD’s on 3 of their 4 second half drives. Josh Allen threw for just 235 yards through the air but finished with 3 TD’s. The Bills operate one of the league’s most efficient offenses, ranking 7th in offensive efficiency, 3rd in EPA/play, 9th in YPP and YPA, 4th in RZ trips per game and 5th in RZ TD %.
- Allen and company will enjoy an excellent matchup against a Colts’ secondary that ranks 26th in passing YPG, 28th in YPA and 23rd in passes of 10+ yards; Buffalo does not have the league’s most explosive run game, but James Cook will enjoy an excellent matchup against a Colts’ run defense that also ranks 30th in rushing YPG allowed and 32nd in runs of 10+ yards.
- In his L4 games, Josh Allen is averaging 264 passing YPG with 9 TD’s and just 1 INT; Sam Darnold (28-24, 290 yards, 3 TD’s, 2 INT’s) was efficient against this secondary last week. The Colts’ passing defense is particularly incriminating when you consider that they’ve faced Will Levis, Tyler Huntley / Tim Boyle and Malik Willis this season and still rank in the league’s bottom quartile in passing YPG.
- Buffalo is averaging nearly 32 PPG in their L3 games and will have the opportunity to continue to post offensive production and points to the scoreboard on the road against Indy in Week 10.
TB (+6.5) vs SF; O/U 50.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: TB vs KC
- The 49ers are fresh off the bye week, while the Bucs are operating on a short week following an OT loss on the road to the Chiefs. SF will likely be the healthiest they’ve been all season and will have Christian McCaffery back in the lineup to add to an offense that already ranks 6th in EPA/play, 2nd in YPP, 6th in 3rd down conversion rate, 5th in passing YPG, 10th in passes of 10+ yards, 4th in rushing YPG, 5th in YPC, 9th in runs of 10+ yards, 3rd in RZ trips per game and 8th in sacks allowed. The 49ers will face a TB defense that has been a liability this season, ranking 29th in EPA/play, 27th in YPP, 30th in passing YPG, 28th in passes of 10+ yards, 28th in YPC and 31st in RZ trips allowed per game.
- KC just posted 384 yards of total offense in a sloppy rainy game where Pat Mahomes (33-44, 291 yards, 3 TD’s) carved up TB’s liability of a secondary and led the Chiefs to 4-4 on RZ trips and 12-18 on 3rd down.
- The 49ers have had their struggles this season, but it hasn’t been on the offensive side of the football. In their last appearance in Week 8, the 49ers posted 469 yards of total offense and 223 yards rushing on Dallas’ bottom 5 defense with run game featuring Isaac Guerendo. The 49ers are averaging 29+ PPG in their L5 games and have posted 430+ yards of offense in 3 of those 5 games in a stretch where they dealt with injuries to Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and obviously McCaffery.
- With many of their playmakers back in the fold (McCaffery and Deebo in particular), expect the 49ers to sustain significant offensive volume in this game.
OVER of the Week
WAS / PIT – OVER 44.5 – FD
Game Matchup Dashboard: WAS vs PIT
- Washington enters Week 10 with one of the league’s most efficient offenses, ranking 4th in offensive efficiency, 2nd in EPA/play, 1st in series conversion rate, 3rd in YPP, 5th in 3rd down conversion rate, 7th in passes of 10+ yards, 3rd in rushing YPG, 4th in YPC, 1st in RZ trips per game and 8th in sacks allowed. They will face a Pittsburgh defense that is among the league’s best but isn’t particularly strong against the pass, ranking 22nd in passing YPG and 17th in YPA.
- Pittsburgh’s offensive metrics are influenced by Justin Fields’ performance, but the Steelers are averaging nearly 32 PPG in their L3 games. In Russell Wilson’s two starts, this offense is averaging nearly 418 YPG, while Russell Wilson has completed 63%+ of his passes and has averaged 271 passing YPG.
- Najee Harris has been excellent over the L3 weeks in a stretch where he is averaging 18 carries and 107+ rushing YPG. He will now line up against a Commanders’ run defense that ranks 28th in rushing YPG, 30th in YPC and 31st in runs of 10+ yards.
- On the season, the Commanders are averaging 29+ PPG and are 5-2 to the OVER in their L7 games, while the Steelers’ have cleared the total by an average of 10 PPG in Wilson’s two starts. Expect Pittsburgh to be able to move the ball on Washington’s suspect defense and the Commanders to continue to operate one of the most efficient offenses in football and take the OVER 44.5.
Player Props of the Week
Player Matchup Dashboard: Passing YPG
Brock Purdy O260.5 Passing Yards – FD
- Brock Purdy operates at the helm of one of the most efficient offenses in football that ranks ranks 6th in EPA/play, 2nd in YPP, 6th in 3rd down conversion rate, 5th in passing YPG, 10th in passes of 10+ yards. Purdy and the 49ers are off the bye and will be the healthiest they’ve been all season with Christian McCaffery, Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings all healthy.
- Purdy and the 49ers will face a TB secondary that is without their top 2 corners in Jamel Dean and Bryce Hall and ranks 29th in EPA/play, 27th in YPP, 30th in passing YPG and 28th in passes of 10+ yards. Recent quarterbacks have torched the Bucs, including Patrick Mahomes (34-44, 291 passing yards, 3 TD’s), Kirk Cousins (23-29, 276 yards, 4 TD’s / 42-58, 509 passing yards, 4 TD’s) and Lamar Jackson (17-22, 281 passing yards, 5 TD’s) over the L5 weeks.
- In that stretch, 4 of the L5 QB’s to face the Bucs have cleared this number, while Purdy has done so in 5 of 8 starts this season. TB will continue to face an uphill battle without their top corners – expect Purdy and this 49ers offense to take advantage and take Purdy O260.5 passing yards.
Player Matchup Dashboard: Rushing YPG
Saquon Barkley O91.5 Rushing Yards – FD
- Saquon Barkley will face one of the worst run defenses in football in the Cowboys that ranks 31st in rushing YPG, 27th in YPC, 24th in runs of 10+ yards that has allowed SF (223 rushing yards), DET (184 rushing yards) and BAL (274 rushing yards) to roll over them over the last month and a half.
- Barkley is averaging nearly 116 rushing YPG this season and is the feature back in a Philly offense that has re-committed itself to running the football and ranks 2nd in rushing YPG, 8th in YPC and 5th in runs of 10+ yards. Barkley leads the league in runs of 10+ yards and trails only Derrick Henry in runs of 20+ yards. He has cleared this number in 6 of 8 games this season and in each of his L3 games against superior run defenses – expect Barkley to once again be an integral part of the offensive scheme against a weak Dallas front 7 and take O91.5 rushing yards.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 10 of the 2024 season, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
Agree or disagree with anything we’ve discussed? Give us a follow on X and let us know!