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Quick Hitters and Trends Across the League
- Denver is now 9-3 ATS on the season and 6-2 to the OVER in their L8 games; they will host the Browns on MNF. Cleveland is 3-1 to the OVER in their L4 games. Jameis Winston will operate behind an OL that ranks 32nd in the league in both sacks and QB hits allowed against a Denver DL that ranks 1st in sacks and 3rd in QB hits and posted 5 sacks against the Raiders in Week 11.
- The Bucs are 3-0 ATS in their L3 games and 6-2 to the OVER in their L8; they hit the road in Week 13 to take on Carolina, who has a horrible defense and is also 6-2 to the OVER in their L8 games.
- The Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their L6 games, 6-2 to the OVER in their L8 and 4-1 to the OVER since Russell Wilson took over as the starter. They hit the road to face the Bengals, who are 8-2 to the OVER in their L10 with an explosive offense that ranks 5th in EPA/play and suspect defense that ranks 25th in EPA/play allowed.
- Arizona is 4-1 ATS in their L5 games and 5-1-1 to the UNDER in their L7 games; the Cardinals will hit the road to face the Vikings, who are 3-1 to the UNDER in L4 games with a defense that ranks 1st in the league in EPA/play and 7th in YPP allowed.
- Philly is 5-1 ATS in their L6 games and have won 7 in a row; they will face one of their toughest matches of the season in Baltimore against the Ravens, who are 7-1 ATS in their L8 games.
- The 49ers are 2-5 ATS in their L7 games off a 38-10 rout at Lambeau in which they posted just 241 yards of total offense. They will be short-handed on both sides of the ball as a 7-point dog in Buffalo this week without OT Trent Williams, starting G Aaron Banks, DE Nick Bosa, DL Jordan Elliott and CB Deommodore Lenoir. The Bills meanwhile are in the midst of a 6-game winning streak and are 5-1 ATS in the same stretch fresh off their bye.
Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results
BAL (-3.0) vs PHI; O/U 51.0
Game Matchup Dashboard: BAL vs PHI
- The league’s top two rushing offenses will face off against two of the league’s strongest run defenses on Sunday in Baltimore. The Eagles top ranked rushing attack led by Saquon Barkley is fresh off a Week 12 rout in which Barkley took 26 carries for 255 yards and 2 TD’s on the ground against the league’s 28th ranked run defense in the Rams. The Ravens meanwhile posted 212 yards rushing on the ground on MNF against the Chargers on a 30-23 victory.
- Baltimore’s high-powered offense will face an Eagles’ defense that’s been the best in the league since their bye and on the season ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency, 5th in EPA/play, 1st in YPP allowed, 2nd in passing YPG, 1st in YPA, 3rd in passes of 10+ yards, 7th in RZ trips allowed per game and 5th in RZ TD %.
- Saquon Barkley is capable of breaking a play wide open any time he touches the ball, but Philly will need to turn to Jalen Hurts and the passing attack against a Baltimore defense that ranks 32nd in passing YPG allowed and passes of 10+ yards allowed. DeVonta Smith missed Week 12 against the Rams and is listed as questionable but was a limited participant at practice on Friday. AJ Brown meanwhile is tied for 4th in the league in receptions of 20+ yards despite missing several weeks of the season in September and should have plenty of opportunity to make an impact on this game.
- Baltimore is 10-2 to the OVER this season and is averaging 30+ PPG, while the Eagles rank 7th in PPG (26.9 PPG) and are averaging 31.7 PPG in their L6 games.
NO (+2.5) vs LAR; O/U 49.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: NO vs LAR
- The Rams are off a rout at home on SNF against the Eagles and will hit the road to face a New Orleans’ defense that provides a great bounceback spot. Matthew Stafford leads an offense that ranks 2nd in early down success rate and 7th in passing YPG against a Saints’ defense that ranks 31st in YPP allowed, 24th in early down success rate, 29th in passing YPG allowed, 27th in YPA and 23rd in passes of 10+ yards.
- In the 5 weeks since both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua returned to the lineup from extended absences, Stafford is averaging a 66%+ completion rate, over 281 passing YPG with 12 TD’s and 3 INT’s. In the same stretch, Kupp is 7.4 receptions, 10 targets, 80.4 receiving YPG with 4 TD’s, while Nacua is averaging 6.6 receptions, 9.8 targets and 91 receiving YPG.
- The Saints are off the bye with a matchup against the Rams’ defense that ranks 28th in rushing YPG allowed, but will be without two starters on the OL in LG Lucas Patrick and C Eric McCoy.
JAX (+3.5) vs HOU; O/U 44.0
Game Matchup Dashboard: JAX vs HOU
- The Jags are off a bye and are among the league’s most disappointing teams through 12 weeks. Trevor Lawrence is questionable as he continues to deal with a shoulder injury – if he is ready to go, he will face a Houston defense that ranks 2nd in EPA/play, 5th in YPP allowed, 8th in 3rd down conversion rate and passing YPG, 4th in YPA, 6th in passes of 10+ yards and 2nd in RZ trips allowed. Houston has one of the league’s strongest pass rushes, ranking 2nd in sacks per game and 5th in QB hits per game and forces TO’s at the 3rd highest rate in the league against a Jags’ offense that ranks 27th in TO’s on the offensive side of the ball.
- CJ Stroud and the Texans’ offense have been inconsistent this season but will have one of the best matchups on the Week 13 slate against a Jags’ defense that ranks 31st in defensive efficiency, 30th in EPA/play, 32nd in YPP allowed, 31st in passing YPG, 27th in passes of 10+ yards, 26th in rushing YPG, 26th in RZ TD %, 31st in RZ trips allowed per game, 26th in sacks per game and 30th in QB hits per game. The last time the Jags’ defense took the field in Week 11, they allowed the Lions to post 645 yards of total offense and 52 points; Jared Goff threw for 412 yards and 4 TD’s on 24-29 passing, while Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery combined for 144 yards and 3 TD’s on 26 carries.
- In Houston’s first matchup with Jacksonville in Week 4, the Texans posted 435 yards of total offense; CJ Stroud finished 27-40 for 345 yards and 2 TD’s, while Nico Collins caught 12 balls for 151 yards and 1 TD.
Team Total of the Week
TB Bucs TT O26.5 – FD
Game Matchup Dashboard: CAR vs TB
- The Bucs head into Carolina with one of the league’s most efficient offenses with a juicy matchup against one of the league’s worst defenses. TB ranks 4th in offensive efficiency, 7th in EPA/play and YPP, 2nd in 3rd down conversion rate, 9th in passing YPG, 10th in rushing YPG, 4th in YPC, 6th in RZ trips per game and 2nd in RZ TD %. They will face a Carolina defense that ranks 32nd in defensive efficiency and EPA/play, 28th in YPP, 32nd in 3rd down conversion rate, 24th in passing YPG, 32nd in rushing YPG, 26th in YPC, 32nd in RZ trips allowed per game, 24th in RZ TD % and 31st in sacks per game.
- Carolina is allowing nearly 31 PPG this season and has allowed 6 of their L8 opponents to book at least 28 points. The Bucs meanwhile just posted 30 points and 451 yards of total offense on the Giants’ defense that ranks 29th in EPA/play in Week 12 and have logged at least 430 yards of total offense in 4 of their L6 games. Expect TB to continue to roll on the offensive side of the ball and look to Bucs TT O26.5 in this NFC South matchup.
Player Props of the Week
Player Matchup Dashboard: Passing YPG
Matthew Stafford O259.5 Passing Yards – FD
- Matthew Stafford is averaging a 66%+ completion rate, over 281 passing YPG with 12 TD’s and 3 INT’s over the L5 weeks in which he’s had both WR’s Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp in the lineup. Stafford and the Rams will now face a Saints’ secondary that ranks 29th in passing YPG allowed, 27th in YPA and 23rd in passes of 10+ yards.
- Jameis Winston (30-46, 395 yards, 2 TD’s), Kirk Cousins (23-38, 306 yards, 1 INT), Justin Herbert (20-32, 279, 2 TD’s) and Baker Mayfield (24-36, 325 yards, 4 TD’s, 3 INT’s) have cleared this number comfortably against the Saints over the L6 weeks.
- Stafford has cleared this number in 4 of his L5 starts with Kupp and Nacua back in the fold; the only game in which he did not in that stretch was against Philly’s secondary that ranks 2nd in the league in passing YPG allowed and 5th in EPA/play. Expect Stafford to take advantage of an excellent matchup on the road in Week 13 and take O259.5 passing yards.
Player Matchup Dashboard: Receiving YPG
Nico Collins O84.5 Passing Yards – FD
- Nico Collins missed 5 games over the course of October and early November but leads the league in receiving YPG and is one of the league’s most prolific deep threats. He and the Texans will face a Jags’ defense that ranks 32nd in YPP allowed, 31st in passing YPG and 27th in passes of 10+ yards that most recently allowed the Lions to throw for 445 yards through the air in Week 11 prior to their bye. In the 52-6 rout against the Lions, Jared Goff threw for 412 yards and 4 TD’s, while Amon-Ra St. Brown (11 receptions, 161 yards, 2 TD’s) and Jameson Williams (4 receptions, 121 yards, 1 TD) both cleared 100 yards receiving.
- In Houston’s first meeting with Jacksonville this season, Collins caught 12 balls for 151 yards and 1 TD. Since then, the Texans lost Stefon Diggs to a season-ending injury, which magnifies Collins’ importance in the passing game and ultimately target share. Collins has cleared this number in 5 of 7 starts this season and had his highest target count against Jacksonville; expect Stroud to feed his top target and take Collins O84.5 receiving yards.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 13 of the 2024 season, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
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