We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
Stay tuned next week for an exciting announcement…
Matchups We Are Excited to Learn From
- The Chargers and Raiders will face off in an AFC West divisional matchup in LA in Week 1 that will mark Jim Harbaugh’s return to the NFL and Antonio Pierce’s debut as LV’s non-interim head coach. The Raiders finished last season 7-1-1 ATS after Antonio Pierce was named head coach, while John Harbaugh has won everywhere he’s been in his career, most recently winning a national championship at Michigan. With the exception of Davante Adams and starpower in their front 7, the Raiders lack both playmakers and depth, while the Justin Herbert and the Chargers lost their top two receivers in Keenan Allen and Mike Wililams in the offseason and head into 2024 with a corps that is now headlined by Quentin Johnston, Josh Palmer, Ladd McConkey and DJ Chark. Harbaugh’s offense in SF the last time he was in the NFL was heavily predicated on the run game; he added both Gus Edwards and JK Dobbins from Baltimore in the offseason and should be fishing with dynamite as he seeks to fully unleash Justin Herbert’s talent. We’ll be intrigued to watch how LAC’s offense performs under Harbaugh and how the Raiders fare in their first full season under the defensive-minded HC in Pierce.
- Caleb Williams is one of the most exciting QB talents to enter the league in the last decade, and will operate in an offense that’s been injected with talent in the offseason with the additions of RB D’Andre Swift and WR’s Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze to complement DJ Moore. Chicago has question marks in pass protection, but they finished last season ranking 2nd in the league in rushing YPG, 6th in YPC and 1st in runs of 10+ yards. They are projected to face one of the easiest schedules of passing defenses this season and will start against a Tennessee secondary that added CB’s L’Jarius Sneed and Chidobe Awuzie in the offseason but finished last season ranking 24th in YPA and 30th in EPA/dropback.
Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results
- The Commanders overhauled their coaching staff in the offseason and brought in Dan Quinn to lead the franchise moving forward. Quinn did an excellent job steering Dallas’ defense for three seasons as the defensive coordinator, but the fact of the matter is that the Commanders finished last season ranked 32nd in the league in passing YPG allowed, 31st in YPA and 28th in passes of 10+ yards. CB’s Benjamin St. Juste and Emmanuel Forbes return, while Kendall Fuller moved onto the Miami Dolphins. In the final 6 games of 2023 (including playoffs against Philly and Detroit), Baker Mayfield threw for 14 TD’s and 4 INT’s, completed 67.3% of his passes and averaged 299 passing YPG. The Bucs have a new OC at the helm in Liam Coen, but the Bucs return Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Trey Palmer and Cade Otton to a passing attack that found its stride in the final stretch of the regular season and now faces the league’s worst secondary in 2023.
- Indy enters the 2024 campaign with an unproven secondary with a lot of questions, including a pair of 2nd-year cornerbacks in JuJu Brents and Jaylon Jones that are projected starters. Indy’s secondary struggled in 2023 and finished the year ranking 23rd in YPA allowed, with an incredibly tough test early against CJ Stroud and a Texans’ offense that ranked 5th in passing YPG, YPA and passes of 10+ yards in his rookie season that also added WR Stefon Diggs in the offseason. In two starts against the Colts in 2023-24, CJ Stroud completed 68% of his passes, threw for a combined 384 yards and 2 TD’s, including a performance in Week 2 in which Stroud threw for 384 yards on 30-47 passing yards. Houston’s high-powered offense that thrived through the air and struggled in the running game could be positioned for an explosive performance out of the gates in Week 1 in Indy.
- The Arizona Cardinals were the league’s worst run defense in 2023, ranking 32nd in rushing YPG allowed, 29th in YPC and 32nd in runs of 10+ yards. They made several moves in the draft and free agency to address this obvious deficiency, but they’ll open the season against a Buffalo offense that finished 2023 ranking 7th in both rushing YPG and runs of 10+ yards and 8th in YPC after finally identifying an explosive lead back in James Cook. In the final 6 games of 2023, Arizona allowed opponents to rush for nearly 160 yards per game and 5.25 YPC. James Cook meanwhile finished the season ranking 2nd in the league in runs of 10+ yards behind only Christian McCaffrey.
- It’s no secret that the Miami Dolphins had one of the league’s most explosive offenses in 2023 through both the air and on the ground – they finished the season ranking 4th in offensive efficiency, 2nd in EPA/play, 2nd in YPP, 2nd in passing YPG and 1st in passes of 10+ yards. They’ll have an excellent opportunity to hit the ground running in Week 1 against a Jacksonville secondary that finished 2023 ranking 26th in passing YPG allowed and 23rd in passes of 10+ yards. The Jags brought in Ryan Nielsen at defensive coordinator and added CB’s Ronald Darby and Darnell Savage to attempt to address the problem, but a matchup with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in Week 1 is a less than ideal way to start the season.
- Detroit finished 2023 ranking 29th in passing YPG allowed, 30th in YPA and 32nd in passes of 10+ yards, but made significant strides in the offseason to address their issues in the secondary with the additions of CB’s Carlton Davis, Amik Robertson, Terrion Arnold (rookie) and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (rookie). Davis, Arnold and Rakestraw Jr. all missed time in training camp, and Arnold and Rakestraw’s roles could be limited somewhat in Week 1; regardless of the rotation and availability, they’ll face a Rams’ passing attack that finished 2023 ranking 11th in passing YPG, 9th in YPA and 8th in passes of 10+ yards and allowed Matthew Stafford to throw for 367 yards and 2 TD’s on 25-36 passing in the NFC Wild Card round.
- Brock Purdy was efficient in a well-oiled 49ers’ offensive scheme most of the season in 2023, but he ultimately faced an extremely weak schedule of passing defenses over the course of the season. In games where he faced top passes rushes and secondaries, Purdy finished 18-32 for 255 yards, 0 TD’s and 4 INT’s against the Baltimore Ravens and 12-27 for 125 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT against the Cleveland Browns. He’ll face a Jets’ secondary that ranked 3rd in passing YPG allowed, 4th in YPA and 1st in passes of 10+ yards that lined up behind a front 7 that finished 7th in the league in sacks. Kyle Shanahan is one of the best offensive minds in the game, but T Trent Williams and WR Brandon Aiyuk missed all of training camp, while RB Christian McCaffrey was a limited participant this week in practice as he deals with a calf strain that has forced him to miss a majority of training camp. CJ Stroud was knocked out late in the 4th quarter of Houston’s matchup with the Jets in 2023, but he finished just 10-23 for 91 yards and was sacked 4 times prior to that occurrence, while Patrick Mahomes was stifled in his early October matchup in New York, finishing just 18-30 for 203 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT’s.
Player Props of the Week
Baker Mayfield O245.5 Passing Yards (FD)
- Mayfield finished his 2023 campaign on a tear, throwing for an average of 299 passing YPG, 14 TD’s and 4 INT’s in his final 6 games. He’ll face a Washington secondary that finished 2023 ranked 32nd in the league in passing YPG allowed, 31st in YPA and 28th in passes of 10+ yards and lost Kendall Fuller to Miami.
- Tampa brought in a new offensive coordinator, but their rushing in 2023 finished 32nd in rushing YPG (90 per game), 32nd in YPC (3.7 YPC) and 29th in runs of 10+ yards. Certainly they’ll seek to address their deficiency in that facet of the game, but Mayfield enters his second season with the Bucs and an established receiving corps that features Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Expect Mayfield to hit the ground running in 2023 against a suspect Washington secondary at home and take O245.5 passing yards.
James Cook O61.5 Rushing Yards (FD)
- James Cook is the lead back in a Buffalo offense that 2023 ranked 7th in both rushing YPG and runs of 10+ yards and 8th in YPC in 2023. He’ll be facing an Arizona defense that finished 2023 ranking 32nd in both rushing YPG allowed and runs of 10+ yards allowed and 29th in YPC.
- The Bills enter this season with a weakened group of pass catchers following the departures of both WR’s Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis; in a Week 1 matchup against an Arizona rushing defense that allowed opponents to rush for nearly 160 yards per game and 5.25 YPC in the final 6 games of the season, expect James Cook to get significant opportunities to produce and take O61.5 rushing yards.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 1 of the 2024 season, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
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