We have re-branded to Gridiron Intel! We will continue to provide impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
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Quick Hitters and Trends Across the League
- Cincy is 7-2 to the OVER in their L9 games and 5-2 ATS in their L7 games; they will welcome the Chargers to town in Week 11, who are 4-1 ATS in their L5 games and 7-2 to the UNDER on the season.
- Detroit is on a 7-game winning streak, 5-2 ATS in L7 games and 4-2 to the OVER in their L6, now matching up against the 2-8 Jags who are 6-2 to the OVER in their L8 games.
- The Steelers are 4-0 to the OVER and ATS in their L4 games, and will now host the Ravens, who are 9-1 to the OVER on the season.
- Houston is 4-2 ATS in their L6 games and 8-1 to the UNDER in their L9 games heading into a MNF matchup with the Cowboys and Cooper Rush, who just posted 146 yards in total (2.6 YPP) in Week 10 against Philly. Dallas is 1-7 ATS in their L7 games and 4-2 to the UNDER in their L6 games.
Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results
CHI (+5.5) vs GB; O/U 40.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: CHI vs GB
- The Bears fired their offensive coordinator this week after posting just 142 yards of total offense and allowing 9 sacks at home against a Patriots’ defense that ranked 30th in our defensive efficiency metric and 28th in EPA/play heading into Week 10. On the season, the Bears rank 25th in offensive efficiency, 27th in EPA/play and 31st in YPP. Over the L3 weeks, the Bears rank dead last in the NFL in YPP and are averaging 9 PPG. The Bears rank 31st in the league in sacks allowed and have the most banged up OL in the league – three starters, including both starting T’s are questionable.
- Green Bay ranks 3rd in the league in YPP and 6th in YPA, but will line up against a Chicago defense that’s been an asset this season and ranks 1st in defensive efficiency, 9th in EPA/play, 6th in 3rd down conversion rate, 8th in passing YPG, 8th in RZ trips per game and 1st in RZ TD %.
- The one facet of the game in which the Bears struggle on defense is against the run, where they rank 24th in rushing YPG and 30th in YPC; they will face a GB running game led by Josh Jacobs that ranks 3rd in rushing YPG, 4th in YPC and 5th in runs of 10+ yards.
- With a broken offense and banged up offensive line, it’s unrealistic to expect the Bears to suddenly turn things around on the offensive side of the ball. The Packers have demonstrated that they can move the ball efficiently through both the air and on the ground, but forecast as 13+ MPH winds at Soldier Field during this 1PM matchup. Expect a low scoring game – Chicago is 3-0 to the UNDER in their L3 games, while GB 3-1-1 to the UNDER in their L5.
DET (-13.5) vs JAX; O/U 46.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: DET vs JAX
- The Jags are heading into a buzz saw in Detroit against one of the league’s most efficient and well-balanced offenses. The Jags rank bottom 5 in nearly every metric we track on our game matchup dashboards, and will face a DET offense that ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency, 4th in EPA/play, 4th in YPP, 6th in 3rd down conversion rate, 7th in rushing YPG, 8th in YPC, 9th in runs of 10+ yards and 5th in both RZ trips per game and RZ TD %.
- In their L5 games, the Lions are averaging 37 PPG, while the Jags have allowed 5 of their L7 opponents to post 400+ yards of offense and are allowing nearly 31 PPG in the same stretch.
- Detroit has advantages in offensive efficiency, on 3rd down and in the red zone – expect the Lions to cruise in this game. Expect Jared Goff and the Lions’ passing attack to move the ball efficiently through the air against a Jags’ secondary that ranks 30th in passing YPG and YPA and 26th in passes of 10+ yards.
PIT (+3.0) vs BAL; O/U 48.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: PIT vs BAL
- Pittsburgh’s offense is showing signs of life with Russell Wilson under center – in their L3 games with Wilson as the starter, the Steelers are averaging 30+ PPG and 382 YPG, while Wilson is averaging nearly 246 yards passing with 6 TD’s and 1 INT. In the same stretch, George Pickens is averaging nearly 5 receptions per game, 7 targets and 92 receiving YPG with 2 TD’s. Pittsburgh will line up against a Baltimore secondary that ranks 32nd in passing YPG, 27th in YPA and 32nd in passes of 10+ yards that was just torched by Joe Burrow (34-56, 428 yards, 4 TD’s) on TNF in Week 10. Pittsburgh will need to rely heavily on the passing game considering that the Ravens rank 1st in the league in rushing YPG allowed, YPC and runs of 10+ yards.
- Pittsburgh’s defense is excellent and grades well, but they’ll be facing the league’s highest-octane offense on Sunday in Pittsburgh that ranks in the league’s top 5 in every offensive metric we track with the exception of offensive penalty YPG. Lamar Jackson is averaging nearly 302 passing YPG with 19 passing TD’s in his L6 starts and will now face a Pittsburgh secondary that ranks 23rd in the league in passing YPG allowed, a stat that is particularly concerning considering that QB’s the Steelers have faced this season include Bo Nix, Joe Flacco, Aidan O’Connell and Daniel Jones.
- The Steelers are 4-0 to the OVER in their L4 games and averaging 31 PPG in the same stretch, while Baltimore is 9-1 to the OVER on the season and is averaging 34+ PPG in their L8 games – expect points and offensive production through the air in this matchup in Pittsburgh.
SF (-6.5) vs SEA; O/U 48.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: SF vs SEA
- The 49ers offense is finally healthy and still ranks as one of the league’s most efficient offenses across the board despite injuries that have plagued this unit all season. They will host a Seattle defense that ranks 26th in early down success rate, 24th in passing YPG allowed, 26th in rushing YPG allowed, 25th in YPC and 30th in RZ trips allowed per game.
- San Fran posted 413 yards of total offense on the Bucs in Week 10 and should have won this game more convincingly than they did, considering that they finished 1-3 on RZ trips and missed 3 FG’s.
- Seattle meanwhile is off the bye, but allowed Matthew Stafford (25-44, 298 passing yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT) to post 366 yards of total offense at home in Week 9. Josh Allen (24-34, 283 passing yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT) and the Bills posted 445 yards of total offense against Seattle a week prior to that.
- The 49ers and Seahawks have already met earlier this season – SF posted 483 yards of total offense (7.9 YPP) with 36 points to show for it and ran for 283 yards on the ground without Christian McCaffery, while Brock Purdy threw for 255 yards and 3 TD’s on just 18-28 passing. Expect the 49ers’ offense to continue to roll against a Seahawks’ defense that has had trouble containing higher octane offenses in recent weeks.
UNDER of the Week
DAL / HOU – UNDER 42 – DK
Game Matchup Dashboard: DAL vs HOU
- Dallas is a lost cause on the offensive side of the football – they are without Dak Prescott for the remainder of the season with a non-existent running game that ranks 31st in rushing YPG, 30th in YPC and 29th in runs of 10+ yards. Cooper Rush led the Cowboys to just 146 yards of offense (2.6 YPP) in Week 10 against Philly, and now will face a Houston defense that ranks 9th in defensive efficiency, 3rd in EPA/play, 4th in YPP allowed, 4th in passing YPG and YPA, 2nd in passes of 10+ yards, 10th in rushing YPG, 3rd in RZ trips allowed per game and 8th in sacks.
- The Cowboys turned the ball over 5 times in Week 10 with Cooper Rush under center. Rush finished just 13-23 for 45 yards total passing, and now faces a top 5 secondary in Houston by passing YPG that also ranks 8th in sacks. Dallas has zero running game and an incompetent quarterback who finished with 2.0 YPA with a 16.4 QBR.
- Houston meanwhile has sputtered on the offensive side of the football without Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins. Collins has potential to return in Week 11, which should help this passing game immensely, but the Texans are best off leaning into Joe Mixon and the running game against a Dallas defense that ranks 31st in rushing YPG, 28th in YPC and 25th in runs of 10+ yards allowed.
- Houston’s OL ranks 30th in the league in sacks allowed per game and 28th in QB hits allowed – Micah Parsons has missed significant time this season but made a significant impact in his return in Week 10 with two sacks of his own, part of a Cowboys’ effort that yielded 5 sacks on Jalen Hurts.
- Houston is 8-1 to the UNDER in their L9 games, while Dallas is 4-2 to the UNDER in their L6 games.
- Dallas’ offense could be the worst in the league going forward with Cooper Rush at QB, now facing one of the league’s top 10 defenses that has the potential to make the passing game a complete non-factor. Houston meanwhile could struggle to protect CJ Stroud with Micah Parsons back in action – expect points to come at a premium in this MNF matchup and take the UNDER 42.
Player Props of the Week
Player Matchup Dashboard: Passing YPG
Russell Wilson O228.5 Passing Yards – FD
- Russell Wilson has injected life into Pittsburgh’s offense over the L3 games – since he took over under center, the Steelers are averaging 30+ PPG and 382 YPG, while Wilson is averaging nearly 246 yards passing with 6 TD’s and 1 INT. Wilson will line up against a Baltimore secondary that ranks 32nd in passing YPG, 27th in YPA and 32nd in passes of 10+ yards that was just torched by Joe Burrow (34-56, 428 yards, 4 TD’s) on TNF in Week 10.
- Eight of 10 quarterbacks to face this Ravens’ secondary have cleared this number in 2024, including Gardner Minshew and Jameis Winston. Joe Burrow most recently torched this secondary, finishing 34-56 for 428 yards and 4 TD’s on TNF in Week 10. Pittsburgh will need to rely heavily on the passing game considering that the Ravens rank 1st in the league in rushing YPG allowed, YPC and runs of 10+ yards. Expect Wilson to move the ball through the air and continue to push the ball down the field to his WR’s in single coverage and take Wilson O228.5 passing yards.
Player Matchup Dashboard: Rushing YPG
Joe Mixon O86.5 Rushing Yards – FD
- Joe Mixon will face one of the worst run defenses in football in the Cowboys that ranks 31st in rushing YPG, 28th in YPC and 25th in runs of 10+ yards that has allowed SF (223 rushing yards), DET (184 rushing yards), BAL (274 rushing yards) and Philly (187 rushing yards) to roll over them over the last month and a half.
- Mixon is averaging nearly 94 rushing YPG this season and has cleared 100+ yards rushing in 5 of 7 starts this season – the two games in which he did not came against the Lions (currently 5th in rushing YPG allowed) and Bears (24th in rushing YPG allowed). Mixon is averaging nearly 25 carries per game in the L4 games since returning from injury and should have plenty of opportunity to work against one of the worst run defenses in the league – take Mixon O86.5 rushing yards.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 11 of the 2024 season, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
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