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Quick Hitters and Trends Across the League
- Washington is 7-3 ATS in their L10 games, now hosting the Cowboys who are 2-8 ATS on the season and 0-5 ATS in their L5 games.
- Detroit is 7-1 ATS in their L8 games, 5-2 to the OVER in their L7 and now hit the road to face the Colts, who are 8-3 ATS on the season themselves.
- The Titans are 1-9 ATS on the season and now hit the road to face the Texans, who are 8-2 to the UNDER in their L10 games and 5-2 ATS in their L7 games off a 24-point victory over Dallas on MNF.
- MIA is 3-0 ATS in their L3 games with Tua back and 3-1 to the OVER in their L4; they will host the Patriots, who are 4-2 to the OVER in their L6 games and just allowed LAR to post 402 yards of total offense and Stafford to throw for 295 yards and 4 TD’s in Week 11.
- The Vikings are 3-0 to the UNDER in their L3 games, heading to Soldier Field to face the Bears, who are 4-0 to the UNDER in their L4 games.
- LV is 2-4 ATS in their L6 and now will host Denver, who just beat up the Falcons in Week 11 and are 7-2 ATS in their L9 games and 5-2 to the OVER in their L7.
- KC is 3-1 to the OVER in their L4 games and now will hit the road to face Carolina’s horrible defense and a team that is 6-2 to the OVER in their L8 games.
Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results
HOU (-7.5) vs TEN; O/U 40.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: HOU vs TEN
- This AFC South divisional matchup is going to feature two defenses that rank in the league’s top 10 in both EPA/play and passing defense. Tennessee heads into this game ranking 10th in EPA/play, 3rd in YPP allowed, 3rd in 3rd down conversion rate, 1st in passing YPG allowed, 4th in YPA and 1st in passes of 10+ yards. Houston meanwhile enters Week 12 ranking 3rd in EPA/play, 5th in YPP allowed, 10th in 3rd down conversion rate, 7th in passing YPG and 6th in passes of 10+ yards.
- Will Anderson Jr. did not play on MNF but has been a limited participant this week in practice; he is a key piece on Houston’s DL that ranks 6th in sacks per game and 7th in QB hits per game. Houston will face a Tennessee OL that is one of the league’s worst in pass protection, ranking 29th in both sacks per game and QB hits allowed.
- Will Levis had success through the air in Week 11 against Minnesota’s suspect secondary, but he’ll face a much tougher test against Houston’s top 10 secondary on the road in Week 12. Levis has cleared 200 yards passing just twice in 6 full starts this season. The Titans managed just 1 RZ trip and allowed Levis to be sacked 5 times last week against a Minnesota defense that ranks 1st in EPA/play and 3rd in sacks per game. Expect Levis to struggle against one of the league’s strongest pass rushes in secondaries on the road in this one.
- The Titans are just 1-9 ATS on the season, while the Texans are 8-2 to the UNDER in their L10 games. Expect points to come at a premium in this game and consider the UNDER 40.5.
IND (+7.5) vs DET; O/U 50.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: IND vs DET
- Detroit just posted an absurd 645 yards of total offense on the Jags – 449 yards passing and another 196 yards rushing. They will hit the road with one of the league’s most efficient and balanced offenses to take on an Indy defense that ranks 26th in passing YPG, 27th in YPA and passes of 10+ yards, 28th in rushing YPG and 31st in runs of 10+ yards.
- Detroit has faced a handful of the league’s stronger defenses over the last month in Tennessee, Houston and Minnesota along with an outdoor game in less than ideal weather conditions in GB, but they should be in top form in the dome in Indy. Goff should roll in Week 12 against a secondary that’s allowed Josh Allen (22-37, 280 yards, 2 INT’s), Sam Darnold (28-34, 290 yards, 3 TD’s, 2 INT’s) and CJ Stroud (25-37, 285 yards, 1 TD) to post significant production in 3 of the L4 weeks.
- Expect David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to have big days against Indy’s run defense that struggles to defend the run and ranks among the league’s worst in explosive runs allowed. Jahmyr Gibbs is tied for 4th in the league in both runs of 10+ and 20+ on the season and is averaging nearly 80 rushing YPG with 8 rushing TD’s in total on the season.
- Detroit is 7-1 ATS in their L8 games and 5-2 to the OVER in their L7 games.
LV (+6.5) vs DEN; O/U 41.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: LV vs DEN
- Denver’s offense does not grade particularly well on our dashboards, but they’ve surged in recent weeks as Bo Nix matures under Sean Payton – Denver posted 400 yards total offense, finished 4-4 in the RZ and posted 38 points at home against Atlanta in Week 11. Bo Nix threw for 307 yards through the air and finished with 4 TD’s. The Broncos will face a Raiders’ defense that ranks 26th in the league in EPA/play, 28th in RZ trips allowed, 27th in RZ TD % and has one of the league’s most anemic pass rushes, ranking 27th in sacks per game and QB hits per game.
- Tua Tagovailoa (28-36, 288 passing yards, 3 TD’s) and Joe Burrow (27-39, 251 passing yards, 5 TD’s, 1 INT) have both been extremely efficient against this Raiders’ secondary in the L2 weeks, while Bo Nix is off the best game of his NFL career in Week 11. The Raiders’ top three corners are listed as questionable this week and DNP on Thursday.
- The Raiders’ offense meanwhile struggles across the board and lacks playmakers at skill positions – they rank 32nd in EPA/play, 29th in YPP, 23rd in 3rd down conversion rate, 32nd in rushing YPG and YPC, 30th in runs of 10+ yards, 28th in RZ trips per game and 29th in sacks allowed per game. They will face one of the league’s top defenses in Denver that ranks 7th in EPA/play, 1st in YPP allowed, 6th in rushing YPG, 4th in YPC, 4th in RZ trips allowed per game, 3rd in RZ TD %, 2nd in sacks per game and 3rd in QB hits per game. Gardner Minshew has found ways to push the ball down the field, but he is going to be facing a strong pass rush at home against Denver in Week 12.
- Denver is 7-2 ATS in their L9 games and 5-2 to the OVER in their L7 games, while LV is 2-4 ATS in their L6 but 5-1 to the OVER in the same stretch. Expect Denver to continue to roll on the road with an ascending rookie QB and an elite defense.
UNDER of the Week
CHI / MIN – UNDER 39.5 – FD
Game Matchup Dashboard: CHI vs MIN
- This NFC North matchup is going to feature two of the league’s top defenses outdoors at Soldier Field. Minnesota enters Week 12 ranking 1st in EPA/play, 6th in YPP allowed, 1st in early down success rate, 1st in rushing YPG, 3rd in YPC and runs of 10+ yards, 2nd in RZ trips allowed per game, 3rd in sacks per game and 1st in QB hits per game. Chicago meanwhile ranks 1st in our defensive efficiency rating, 4th in 3rd down conversion rate, 10th in passing YPG allowed, 6th in passes of 10+ yards and 1st in RZ TD %.
- Relatively speaking, the Bears’ offense improved in Week 11 following the firing of OC Shane Waldron, but they will face a much tougher test in Minnesota than they did against GB. Caleb Williams will be operating behind one of the league’s worst OL’s in pass protection against a Vikings DL that is among the league’s best at getting to the quarterback. Combine that with the fact that Chicago’s pedestrian run game will face a Vikings’ run defense that leads the league in rushing YPG allowed and held TEN to just 33 yards rushing in Week 11, and it could be a long day for Williams and the Bears on the offensive side of the ball.
- Minnesota is 3-0 to the UNDER in their L3 games, while the Bears are 4-0 to the UNDER in their L4. Minnesota’s defense has allowed opponents to score just 10.6 PPG in that stretch, while the Bears’ offense has scored just 11.5 PPG over the last month. Expect points to come at a premium in this one and take the UNDER 39.5.
Player Props of the Week
Player Matchup Dashboard: Passing YPG
Jared Goff O243.5 Passing Yards – FD
- Jared Goff just threw for 449 yards passing against a Jags’ secondary that is among the league’s worst in Week 11; he will now face an Indy secondary that ranks 26th in passing YPG, 27th in YPA and passes of 10+ yards. Goff should continue to find success through the air in Week 12 against a secondary that’s allowed Josh Allen (22-37, 280 yards, 2 INT’s), Sam Darnold (28-34, 290 yards, 3 TD’s, 2 INT’s) and CJ Stroud (25-37, 285 yards, 1 TD) to post significant production in 3 of the L4 weeks.
- Goff has faced a stretch of stronger defenses over the last month in Tennessee, Houston and Minnesota, but should be in top form on the road in the dome in Week 12. Expect Goff to have similar success to Allen, Darnold and Stroud and for the Lions’ to continue to push the gas in Week 12 and take Goff O243.5 passing yards.
Bo Nix O217.5 Passing Yards – FD
- Bo Nix is averaging over 257 passing YPG over the L4 weeks and is rounding into form under Sean Payton entering the home stretch of his rookie campaign. He most recently finished 28-33 for 307 yards and 4 TD’s at home in Week 11 against an average Atlanta secondary that ranks 18th in passing YPG and 21st in passes of 10+ yards allowed.
- The Raiders meanwhile have significant cluster injuries in the secondary – their top three cornerbacks (Jack Jones, Jakorian Bennett and Nate Hobbs) all DNP on Wednesday or Thursday, which does not bode well for their participation on Sunday. Injuries in the secondary have been an issue for the L3 weeks or so, which explains in part why Tua Tagovailoa (28-36, 288 passing yards, 3 TD’s) and Joe Burrow (27-39, 251 passing yards, 5 TD’s, 1 INT) have had significant success against the Raiders over the L2 weeks.
- Bo Nix started 61 games in college and is 24 years old, so he is hardly a rookie under Sean Payton’s watch – Nix said this week that he and Payton have “found a good rhythm of what we both like, what we can kind of put out there on the field, and what we can execute. Then the guys have kind of adapted to it, found our roles within the offense, and executed at a high level. It’s just all about slowing the game down and processing things in a manner that you can handle. Just kind of see one or two things, and let those guys take you to where the ball is supposed to be.”
- Expect Nix to continue to have success in Week 12 in an offense that is gelling against a Raiders’ secondary that is among the most banged up in the league and take Nix O217.5 passing yards.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 12 of the 2024 season, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
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