We provide impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
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Quick Hitters and Trends Across the League
- Tennessee is 2-10 ATS on the season and 7-3 to the OVER in their L10 games; Jacksonville meanwhile is 6-2 to the OVER in their L8 games and will turn to Mac Jones at QB.
- Philly is 6-1 ATS in their L7 games and winners of 8 straight; they will host the Panthers, who are 4-0 ATS in their L4 games and 8-2 to the OVER in their L10, thanks largely to a defense that is among the league’s worst.
- The Steelers are 6-1 ATS and 6-1 to the OVER in their L7 games, while the Browns just allowed Denver to post 41 points on MNF and are 3-1 to the OVER in their L4 games.
- Seattle hits the road to face Arizona in an NFC West showdown; the Seahawks are 5-1 to the UNDER in their L6 games, while the Cardinals are 6-1-1 to the UNDER in their L8 games. Seattle just posted 259 yards of total offense on the road against the Jets in Week 13 and has a horrible travel schedule now heading to Arizona; these two teams played in late November to a 16-6 result.
- KC is 11-1 SU but 0-6 ATS in their L6 games; they will host the Chargers at home on SNF, who are 5-1 ATS in their L6 games.
- The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS and 5-2 to the OVER in their L7 games and 3-8 ATS in their L11; they will host the Bengals as a 5.5-point underdog on MNF against the Bengals, who are 5-0 to the OVER in their L5 and 9-2 to the OVER in their L11 games.
Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results
PHI (-13.5) vs CAR; O/U 45.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: PHI vs CAR
- Philly is off perhaps their best win of the season on the road in Baltimore in which they posted 140 yards on the ground against the league’s top run defense; they host Carolina’s defense at home in Week 14 that ranks 31st in defensive efficiency and EPA/play, 28th in YPP allowed, 23rd in passing YPG allowed, 32nd in rushing YPG allowed, 29th in runs of 10+ yards, 32nd in RZ trips allowed and 25th in RZ TD %. Carolina is off a tight OT loss at home to the Bucs, but are walking into a buzz saw against one of the hottest teams in the league that ranks 1st in the league in rushing YPG and 2nd in both YPC and runs of 10+ yards.
- Over the L7 games, Saquon Barkley has cleared 100+ yards rushing in 6 starts and is averaging over 145 rushing YPG. Bucky Irving and Rachaad White posted 228 total yards on the ground (6.3 YPC) in Week 13 against Carolina.
- Bryce Young has showed some progression over the L2 weeks, but he’s done so against below average passing defenses in KC (19th in passing YPG allowed) and TB (32nd in passing YPG allowed); he will match up against an Eagles’ defense that ranks 1st in YPP allowed, 3rd in passing YPG allowed, 1st in YPA and 4th in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Philly’s front 7 has been among the league’s best this season as well, ranking 7th in rushing YPG, 9th in runs of 10+ yards and 6th in sacks per game.
- Carolina ranks 32nd in the league in points allowed per game at 30.5 and is 8-2 to the OVER in their L10 games.
MIN (-5.5) vs ATL; O/U 46.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: MIN vs ATL
- The Falcons are off a tough loss at home against the Chargers in which they held LA to just 187 total yards of offense, 10 first downs, 3-11 on 3rd down and 0-2 on RZ trips; 4 INT’s from Kirk Cousins and a 1-4 performance on RZ trips ultimately held the Falcons back in the 17-13 loss. The Falcons hit the road with an offense that ranks 10th in the league in YPP, 3rd in passing YPG, 8th in YPA and 4th in passes of 10+ yards. Cousins and the Falcons will face a Vikings’ secondary that ranks 29th in passing YPG and 31st in passes of 10+ yards allowed.
- Over the L3 weeks, Kyler Murray (31-45, 260 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT’s), Caleb Williams (32-47, 340 yards, 2 TD’s) and Will Levis (17-31, 295 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) have all had significant success against this Vikings’ secondary.
- Atlanta will need to rely on Cousins and the passing game to sustain offense in this game considering that Minnesota ranks 1st in the league in rushing YPG and 3rd in both YPC and runs of 10+ yards allowed. Arizona posted 405 yards of total offense on Minnesota last week and finished just 1-6 on RZ trips, an indication that they left points on the field over the course of the game.
DAL (+5.5) vs CIN; O/U 49.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: DAL vs CIN
- Cincy travels to Dallas to face the Cowboys on MNF off another high-scoring loss, this time in a 44-38 shootout at home against the Steelers, who posted 520 yards of total offense on Cincy’s defense that ranks 30th in defensive efficiency and EPA/play, 27th in passing YPG and 30th in RZ TD %. Cincy’s offense ranks among the league’s most efficient, ranking 1st in our offensive efficiency metric, 6th in EPA/play, 1st in passing YPG, 6th in passes of 10+ yards and 2nd in RZ TD %. They will face a Dallas defense that ranks 23rd in defensive efficiency, 29th in EPA/play and YPP allowed and 29th in YPA.
- Over the L3 weeks, Joe Burrow is averaging 365 passing YPG with 10 TD’s, while the Bengals are averaging 36.5 points per game in the L4 weeks and will face a Cowboys’ defense that ranks 30th in the league in points allowed per game. The Bengals’ offense has not been their issue this season; they rank 2nd in the league in RZ TD % and will face a Dallas defense that ranks 32nd in the league in RZ TD % allowed. Cincy finished 4-5 on RZ trips in Week 13 in their 38-point performance against Pittsburgh’s much stronger defense.
- Cincy is 5-0 to the OVER in their L5 games and 9-2 to the OVER in their L11 games, while Dallas is 3-8 ATS in their L11 games and 5-2 to the OVER in their L7 games.
Over of the Week
PIT / CLE – OVER 43.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: PIT vs CLE
- The Steelers are off a Week 13 win on the road in they posted 520 yards of total offense and 410 yards passing; Russell Wilson finished 29-38 for 414 yards, 3 TD’s and 1 INT on Cincy’s suspect defense. Pittsburgh’s defense meanwhile was also torched, allowing Cincy to post 38 points of their own and to finish 4-5 on RZ trips.
- The Browns meanwhile are off a thrilling 41-32 loss on MNF in which Jameis Winston and the offense posted 552 yards of total offense; Winston threw for 497 yards and 4 TD’s on 34-58 passing, but unfortunately also threw 2 pick-6’s that made things difficult to bounce back from. The Browns’ defense allowed Denver to post 400 yards of their own, including 294 yards through the air. Jameis Winston has thrown for 300+ yards in 3 of his L5 starts and has logged 40+ passing attempts in 4 of his L5 games with 10 TD’s and 7 INT’s in that same 5-game stretch.
- These two teams most recently faced off in Week 12 in a TNF game where heavy snowfall impacted the game; the skies look clear with no wind or precipitation that will impact the game on Sunday in Pittsburgh.
- Since Russell Wilson took over as the starter, the Steelers are averaging 28.7 PPG, while the average total scoring output is nearly 51.7 PPG in that stretch in Steelers’ games.
- The Browns are 3-1 to the OVER in their L4 games, while the Steelers are 6-1 to the OVER in their L7 games. Expect the Steelers’ offense to continue to have success moving the ball in this game and for the Browns to continue to air the ball out against a Steelers’ defense that just allowed Cincy to post 38 points in Week 13 and take the OVER 43.5.
Player Props of the Week
Player Matchup Dashboard: Rushing YPG
Saquon Barkley O110.5 Rushing Yards – FD
- This is obviously a premium prop and number, but Barkley is averaging 145 rushing YPG over his L6 starts; he leads the league in runs of 10+ yards and trails only Derrick Henry in runs of 20+ yards, now facing a Carolina run defense that ranks 32nd in rushing YPG allowed and 29th in runs of 10+ yards.
- Bucky Irving and Rachaad White posted 228 total yards on the ground (6.3 YPC) in Week 13 against Carolina, while Tyrone Tracy (18 carries, 103 yards, 1 TD) and Alvin Kamara (29 carries, 155 yards) have also had significant success against this horrible run defense in recent months.
- Carolina will be without Jadeveon Clowney while LB’s DJ Wonnum and Josey Jewell are also listed as questionable.
- The biggest hindrance to Barkley’s production is an early blowout, but Carolina has been a competitive opponent over the last month – they’ve played in one-score games in each of their L4 games and have lost to the Chiefs and Bucs on last-minute FG’s in each of the L2 weeks. Expect Barkley to pick up yardage in chunks this afternoon against Carolina and take O110.5 rushing yards.
Alvin Kamara O82.5 Rushing Yards – FD
- Alvin Kamara continues to operate as a workhorse in New Orleans’ offensive approach and will now face one of the worst run defenses in football on the road in Week 14 in the Giants, who rank 29th in rushing YPG, 32nd in YPC and 31st in runs of 10+ yards allowed. Kamara is averaging 97+ rushing YPG over the L4 weeks, and while Kendre Miller will return to the lineup, the Saints lost Taysom Hill to the IR. The Saints do not have an explosive passing attack but rank 10th in the league in rushing YPG and 9th in YPC thanks largely to Kamara.
- Rico Dowdle (22 carries, 112 yards, 1 TD), Bucky Irving (12 carries, 88 yards, 1 TD), Chuba Hubbard (28 carries, 153 yards, 1 TD), Saquon Barkley (17 carries, 176 yards, 1 TD) and Najee Harris (19 carries, 114 yards) have all cleared this number against the Giants over the L6 weeks. Expect Kamara to have similar success this week against the Giants and take O82.5 rushing yards.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 14 of the 2024 season, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
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