Around the NFL: Week 15 Preview

We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.

Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results in Week 15

• Miami’s DL that ranks 3rd in the league in sacks per game and 1st in QB hits per game will have an opportunity to cause significant disruption against a Jets’ OL that ranks 30th in the league in sacks allowed per game and 28th in QB hits per game. Zach Wilson is leading an offense that had success in the second half of last week’s matchup with Houston, but still ranks 32nd in the league in offensive efficiency, EPA/play and series conversion rate and 30th in YPP. Miami sacked Tim Boyle 7 times three weeks ago on Black Friday and in turn held the Jets to just 159 yards of total offense.
• Atlanta has some injury concerns on their OL to monitor heading into Sunday but have one of the league’s best run games, ranking 6th in the league in rushing YPG and 5th in runs of 10+ yards. Carolina has been poor against the run all season and ranks 23rd in rushing YPG allowed (126 per game), 25th in YPC and 25th in runs of 10+ yards. It should be noted that they’ll be without RT Kaleb McGary while three other starting OL’s in G Chris Lindstrom, C Drew Dalman and LT Jake Matthews are all QUESTIONABLE.
• Justin Fields has missed significant time this season but has not been a prolific passer since returning in Week 11 – he is averaging just 204 passing YPG over the L3 weeks and has cleared 223 just twice this season against the Commanders and Broncos. In Week 15 he will face a Browns defense that ranks 2nd in EPA/play, 1st in series conversion rate, 3rd in YPP allowed, 1st in early down success rate and 3rd down conversion rate and a secondary that ranks 1st in passing YPG allowed, 3rd in YPA and 1st in passes of 10+ yards. Cleveland’s weakness on defense (if there is one) is in the run game, where they rank 17th in YPC allowed and 20th in runs of 10+ yards; Chicago ranks 4th in rushing YPG, 8th in YPC and 1st in runs of 10+ yards. If they have success on the offensive side of the ball, it will likely be predicated on the ground game.
• Jordan Love is averaging 273 passing YPG with 11 TD’s, 3 INT’s and a 64% completion rate over the L5 weeks with an excellent matchup against a Tampa secondary that ranks 31st in passing YPG allowed (283 per game), 29th in YPA and 31st in passes of 10+ yards. Tampa is dealing with injuries across its defense (DT William Gholston, CB Carlton Davis are both OUT, DT Vita Vea, S Ryan Neal, DOUBTFUL, LB Devin White and CB Jamel Dean QUESTIONABLE) and has been torched by QB’s of recent that include Desmond Ridder (26-40, 347 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT), Brock Purdy (21-25, 333 yards, 3 TD’s), CJ Stroud (30-42, 470 yards, 5 TD’s) and Josh Allen (31-40, 324 yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT) over the L7 weeks.
• San Fran’s offense that ranks 1st in offensive efficiency, EPA/play, series conversion rate, YPP and early down success rate, 5th in 3rd down conversion rate, 4th in passing YPG, 1st in YPA, 3rd in rushing YPG and YPC and 2nd in runs of 10+ yards will have every opportunity to torch an Arizona defense that ranks 30th in the league in defensive efficiency, 32nd in EPA/play and series conversion rate, 25th in YPP allowed and 32nd in early down success rate. Arizona struggles to defend the run, ranking 30th in rushing YPG allowed (140 per game) and 24th in runs of 10+ yards. Over the L4 weeks, Arizona is allowing 164 rushing YPG and has allowed Najee Harris (16 carries, 62 yards), Jaylen Warren (9 carries, 59 yards), Kyren Williams (16 carries, 143 yards), Royce Freeman (13 carries, 77 yards), Devin Singletary (22 carries, 112 yards, 1 TD) and Bijan Robinson (22 carries, 95 yards, 1 TD) all to have significant success, which bodes well for Christian McCaffrey, who is averaging 105 rushing YPG over the L5 weeks and whose backup Elijah Mitchell is OUT.
• The Rams are off a 37-31 OT loss on the road in Baltimore in which Matthew Stafford threw for 294 yards and 3 TD’s on 23-41 and lead LA to 410 yards of total offense against a Baltimore defense that ranks 1st in the league in EPA/play and YPP allowed and 4th in defensive efficiency. Their offense that ranks 7th in offensive efficiency and 9th in EPA/play will have a much more attractive matchup at home this week against a Washington defense that ranks 27th in the league in defensive efficiency, 31st in EPA/play and 32nd in YPP allowed in Week 15. Stafford should be able to take advantage of a Commanders’ secondary that ranks 29th in passing YPG allowed, 32nd in YPA and 26th in passes of 10+ yards. Washington has been torched by prolific passers recently – Tua threw for 280 yards and 2 TD’s on 18-24 passing in barely 3 quarters of action in Week 13, while Dak Prescott (22-32, 331 yards, 4 TD’s), Tommy Devito (18-26, 246 yards, 3 TD’s), Geno Smith (31-47, 369 yards, 2 TD’s) and Jalen Hurts (29-38, 319 yards, 4 TD’s) have all had similar success over the L6 weeks.
• Philly has been throttle bodied by two of the NFC’s best rosters in consecutive weeks, but still has an offense that ranks 4th in offensive efficiency, 6th in EPA/play, 5th in series conversion rate, 10th in YPP, 9th in early down success rate and 3rd in 3rd down conversion rate. They’ll have an excellent get-right matchup against a Seattle defense that ranks 32nd in defensive efficiency, 29th in series conversion rate, 24th in YPP allowed and 30th in 3rd down conversion rate. Seattle is allowing opponents to post 405 total yards per game and 28 PPG over the L7 weeks, which bodes well for Jalen Hurts and company against a secondary that ranks 25th in passing YPG allowed and 28th in passes of 10+ yards on the season.

In the last three years, drives where a QB wasn’t sacked ended in a punt 31% of the time, made it to the RZ 33% of the time, and averaged 2.3 points per drive. On drives where a QB was sacked at least once, drives ended in a punt 56% of the time, made it to the red zone 20% of the time, and averaged 1 point per drive. Understanding specific matchups in the trenches is critical to understanding game outcomes.

Matchups in the Trenches

• Buffalo’s OL ranks 1st in the league in sacks allowed on the season but will face a tough test against a Dallas pass rush that ranks 8th in the league in sacks. Dallas only got to Jalen Hurts once last week but brought significant pressure that forced him to get rid of the ball early and off schedule often. Josh Allen will need to deal with the pressure he faces and take care of the ball as Buffalo ranks 28th in the league in turnovers per game on the season.
• KC is off a controversial loss against Buffalo last week but ranks 2nd in the league in sacks allowed on the season with a matchup on the road in Week 15 against an NE DL that ranks just 28th in sacks on the season and 31st in QB hits. Mahomes and the Chiefs are struggling with continuity at the WR position, but time in the pocket should not be an issue in this game.
• Mitch Trubisky will be operating in Week 15 behind a Steelers’ OL that ranks 8th in the league in sacks allowed and has been a significant improvement year over year in 2023, but they’ll be facing a tough test against a Colts’ DL that ranks 3rd in sacks on the season and has logged at least 4 sacks each 4 of the L5 weeks.
• Miami’s pass rush has been one of the league’s best in 2023, ranking 3rd in sacks, with an excellent matchup against a Jets’ DL that ranks 30th in the league in sacks allowed and 28th in QB hits allowed. Miami sacked Tim Boyle 7 times on Black Friday last time the Jets faced the Dolphins, which does not bode well for Zach Wilson in Week 15.

60% of all offensive touchdowns in the last three years came on plays from inside the 10-yard line. Understanding teams and players that participate in offenses that do or do not move the ball inside the RZ and their opponent’s 10-yard line is critical in understanding players who are positioned for success.

Red Zone Matchup Analysis

• San Fran’s high-powered and highly efficient offense ranks 3rd in the league in RZ trips on the season with an excellent matchup against a Cardinals’ defense that ranks 32nd in RZ trips allowed; SF ranks 3rd in the league in RZ TD % as well, an indication that they are taking advantage of opportunities when they move close to the end zone. Christian McCaffrey ranks 11th in the league among all players in RZ receptions per game and 3rd among RB’s in both RZ carries per game and RZ targets per game.
• Denver’s offense has not been terribly prolific in 2023, but they do rank 5th in RZ trips per game with a matchup against a Detroit defense that ranks 25th in RZ trips per game and 29th in RZ TD %. Courtland Sutton ranks 4th in the league in RZ receptions per game, 2nd in the league in receiving TD’s and in 7 of Denver’s L8 games and 10 of 13 total games on the season.
• Chicago ranks 23rd in the league in RZ trips per game with a sub-optimal matchup against a Browns’ defense that ranks 3rd in RZ trips allowed per game; that said, Cleveland does rank 28th in the league in RZ TD % when opponents reach their RZ.
• Arizona has had a number of different QB’s commanding their offense in 2023 but ranks 28th in the league in RZ trips on the season, now tasked with a SF defense that ranks 1st in the league in RZ trips allowed on the season and 9th in RZ TD %. This does not bode well for offensive options on Arizona in Week 15.
• New England’s offense has been atrocious in 2023 and ranks 32nd in the league in RZ trips; they’ll be facing a KC defense that ranks 6th in the league in RZ trips allowed, anchored by a pass rush that ranks 3rd in the league in sacks and 5th in QB hits on the season.

Player Props of the Week

Matthew Stafford O269.5 Passing Yards – FD

• Matthew Stafford has cleared 269.5 passing yards in each of the L2 weeks against two of the league’s top 6 passing defenses in Cleveland (1st in passing YPG allowed) and Baltimore (6th in passing YPG allowed), finishing 22-37 for 279 yards and 3 TD’s against the Browns and 23-41 for 294 yards and 3 TD’s in torrential downpour in Baltimore last week.
• LA’s offense ranks 7th in the league in offensive efficiency, 9th in EPA/play, 9th in series conversion rate and 10th in early down success rate, meaning they can move the chains and extend drives at an above average clip. They’ll be facing a Commanders’ defense that ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, 31st in EPA/play, 23rd in series conversion rate and 32nd in YPP, which translates to the simple fact that Washington does not excel in slowing down opposing offenses.
• Stafford has an excellent matchup against a Commanders’ secondary in particular that ranks 29th in passing YPG allowed, 32nd in YPA and 26th in passes of 10+ yards. Washington has been torched by prolific passers recently – Tua threw for 280 yards and 2 TD’s on 18-24 passing in barely 3 quarters of action in Week 13, while Dak Prescott (22-32, 331 yards, 4 TD’s), Tommy Devito (18-26, 246 yards, 3 TD’s), Geno Smith (31-47, 369 yards, 2 TD’s) and Jalen Hurts (29-38, 319 yards, 4 TD’s) have all had similar success over the L6 weeks.
• Opposing passers have cleared this number against Washington in 4 of the L6 weeks and 9 of the L12 games in 2023. Take Stafford O269.5 passing yards and find Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua early and often against this bad Washington secondary.

David Montgomery O67.5 Rushing Yards – FD

• Montgomery has been stagnant over the L4 weeks but has faced the Chicago Bears’ 2nd ranked rushing defense in 2 of the L4 weeks that allows just 85 yards per game and now has an excellent matchup against a Broncos’ defense that ranks 32nd in the league in rushing YPG allowed (145 per game), 32nd in YPC allowed and 28th in runs of 10+ yards allowed.
• The Lions return home where Montgomery is averaging 81 rushing YPG and 5.2 YPC on the season and their offense is averaging 407 rushing YPG. Montgomery is an integral part of a Lions’ offense that ranks 8th in EPA/play, 3rd in YPP, 5th in rushing YPG, 4th in YPC and 7th in runs of 10+ yards on the season.
• Denver has held opponents in check in the run game over the L3 weeks, but that’s been against the Chargers (25th in rushing YPG), Texans (26th in rushing YPG) and Browns (4th in rushing YPG; negative game script playing from behind with DTR at QB). Denver has faced 4 top 10 rushing attacks in 2023: Cleveland, Buffalo, Chicago and Miami; they held the Browns in check (24 carries, 107 yards), but Miami (43 carries, 350 yards, 8.1 YPC), Buffalo (26 carries, 192 yards, 7.4 YPC) and Chicago (31 carries, 171 yards, 5.5 YPC) have all had significant success against them.
• Take Montgomery O67.5 rushing yards with an excellent matchup against the league’s worst rushing defense on Saturday night.

OVER OF THE WEEK

Jaguars / Ravens OVER 41.5 – FD

• This matchup will feature a Baltimore offense that ranks 9th in our offensive efficiency metrics, 7th in EPA/play, 8th series conversion rate, 5th in YPP, 3rd in early down success rate, 9th in 3rd down conversion rate, 1st in rushing YPG, 2nd in YPC and 2nd in runs of 10+ yards. They rank 2nd in the league in RZ trips per game and 5th in RZ TD % once they arrive. The Ravens’ offense is predicated on the run game but they do rank 5th in YPA through the air with an excellent matchup against a Jags’ secondary that ranks 30th in passing YPG, 24th in YPA and 27th in passes of 10+ yards.
• Jacksonville will be without CB Tyson Campbell and could be missing another of their top corners in Tre Herndon, who is questionable with a concussion. Joe Flacco threw for 311 yards, 3 TD’s and 1 INT on 26-45 passing against this secondary in Week 14, leading Cleveland to 31 today points, while Jake Browning a week prior threw for 354 yards and a TD on 32-37 passing.
• Baltimore’s defense ranks 4th in defensive efficiency, 1st in EPA/play, 3rd in series conversion rate, 1st in YPP allowed, 8th in 3rd down conversion rate, 7th in passing YPG, 4th in passes of 10+ yards allowed and 3rd in both RZ trips allowed and RZ TD %. That said, the Rams just posted 410 yards of offense against Baltimore in Sunday in torrential downpour in a game where Matthew Stafford threw for 294 yards and 3 TD’s on 23-41 passing and lead the Rams to 3-5 conversion rate in RZ trips.
• Jacksonville does not grade particularly well on the offensive side of the ball, ranking just 17th in offensive efficiency, 21st in EPA/play, 15th in series conversion rate and 16th in YPP, but they are averaging nearly 30 PPG over their L4 weeks. Average scoring output in Jags’ games over the L6 weeks is at 50.3 PPG. The Jags played a Cleveland defense in Week 14 that ranks 9th in defensive efficiency, 2nd in EPA/play allowed, 1st in series conversion rate, 3rd in YPP, 1st in early down success rate and 1st in passing YPG (180 per game), but Trevor Lawrence managed to post 257 yards through the air with 3 TD’s and 3 INT’s on 28-50 passing.
• There could be some significant winds in the forecast on Sunday evening in Jacksonville that could have an impact on scheme and gameplanning, but at 41.5, this is a good considering the injuries Jacksonville is dealing with in the secondary, that Jacksonville is 3-1 to the OVER in their L4 games and Baltimore is 5-2 to the OVER in their L7. Take the OVER 41.5 in this one.

MODEL PICKS

Our models are 34-16-2 (68%) in 2023 and have 6 picks for the Week 15 slate. Head over to the About us section to read up on the models and methodology.

Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 15, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.

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