We provide impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
Our Models are LIVE! Head over to the site and browse to the Models section of the Dashboard to check on our four Overs / Unders. Models finished 48-26-2 (65%) in 2023 and are 61%+ over the L3 years!
Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results
BAL (-6.5) vs WAS; O/U 51.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: BAL vs WAS
- Another week and another matchup between Baltimore’s high-powered offense and an opponent with the capability to match their production. Baltimore enters this game ranking 4th in EPA/play and 1st in YPP, fresh off a Week 5 performance in which they posted 520 yards and 41 points on Cincy. Baltimore is averaging nearly 35 points in their L3 games and has posted 400+ yards in 4 of 5 games this season. Washington meanwhile looks to have a more than viable QB in Jayden Daniels, who is leading an offense that ranks 1st in the league in EPA/play and 2nd in YPP.
- Baltimore has been excellent on 3rd down (3rd in league), moving the ball into the RZ (5th in RZ trips) and converting RZ trips into TDs (2nd in RZ TD%). They will enjoy an excellent matchup against a Commanders’ defense that ranks 25th in our defensive efficiency metric, 23rd in 3rd down conversion rate and 29th in RZ TD %.
- Baltimore’s acquisition of Derrick Henry continues to pay dividends, evidenced by the fact that they rank 1st in the league in rushing YPG, YPC and runs of 10+ yards. Henry and Jackson will now face a Commanders’ run defense that ranks 22nd in rushing YPG allowed, 29th in YPC (5.2) and 32nd in runs of 10+ yards. They have yet to face a rushing attack of Baltimore’s caliber this season and could very likely be in for a rude awakening.
- Jayden Daniels has yet to eclipse the 300-yard mark in his rookie campaign, but ranks 5th in the league in YPA; he’ll have an opportunity to move the ball through the air against a Baltimore secondary that ranks 32nd in passing YPG allowed and 31st in passes of 10+ yards that allowed Joe Burrow to throw for 392 yards and 5 TD’s in Week 5. If Washington seeks to sustain offense in this matchup, it will need to be through the air, as Baltimore enters Week 6 as the league’s uncontested top run defense.
- Expect offensive production on the ground and through the air from Baltimore, and for Washington to look to move the ball through the air to keep pace. Deficiencies in both defensive units point to the OVER 51.5, but Baltimore could feasibly control the clock and pace of the game by imposing their will in the ground game.
GB (-4.5) vs ARI; O/U 47.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: GB vs LV
- GB’s offensive metrics are somewhat muted due to Jordan Love’s brief absence, but they enter Week 6 ranking 5th in the league in YPP nonetheless. They will face an Arizona defense that ranks 23rd in EPA/play, 27th in YPP allowed, 29th in 3rd down conversion rate, 27th in passes of 10+ yards and 28th in rushing YPG.
- Josh Jacobs continues to play a key role in Green Bay’s offensive scheme for a rushing attack that ranks 3rd in rushing YPG and runs of 10+ yards and 8th in YPC; he will face an Arizona defense that ranks 28th in rushing YPG that has allowed Jordan Mason (14 carries, 89 yards, 6.4 YPC), Brian Robinson (21 carries, 101 yards, 4.8 YPC, 1 TD), David Montgomery (23 carries, 105 yards, 4.6 YPC, 1 TD) and Jahmyr Gibbs (16 carries, 83 yards, 5.2 YPC) all have outsized success in the L3 weeks.
- Even with Jordan Love’s absence, GB ranks 7th in the league in RZ trips per game and will now face an Arizona defense that ranks 32nd in RZ trips allowed. Arizona allowed San Fran to enter the RZ 6 times in Week 5, but held them to just 1 TD, which translated to a gutsy divisional win on the road. Green Bay should have plenty of opportunity to move the ball into the red zone in Week 6 and could light up the scoreboard if they can execute once they get there.
DAL (+3.0) vs DET; O/U 52.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: DAL vs DET
- Another matchup of high-powered offensive attacks will take place in Dallas this weekend. Detroit is fresh off a bye in Week 5 and enters with an offensive attack that ranks 8th in EPA/play, 6th in YPP, 1st in early down success rate, 7th in passing YPG and 6th in rushing YPG. Dallas meanwhile has struggled to establish a run game, but has moved the ball through the air successfully in 2024, ranking 3rd in passing YPG and 8th in passes of 10+ yards.
- Detroit’s two-headed rushing attack of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs will have opportunities to make significant impacts in this game against a Dallas run defense that ranks 24th in rushing YPG. Their deficiencies on the ground have been muted in the L2 weeks against Pittsburgh and the New York Giants, two teams with subpar offensive lines, but it should be noted that Baltimore ran for 274 yards on Week 3, while the Saints ran for 190 yards in Week 2. Derrick Henry (25 carries, 151 yards, 6.0 YPC, 2 TD’s) and Alvin Kamara (20 carries, 115 yards, 5.8 YPC, 3 TD’s) dominated on the ground, and Montgomery and Gibbs both should have opportunities to do the same.
- Detroit once again in 2024 has been excellent against the run on defense, but their secondary continues to be a liability, ranking 27th in passing YPG allowed. Assuming that Dallas continues to struggle to establish the run against a top 5 run defense in Detroit, Dak Prescott should have a heavy workload moving the ball through the air against a Detroit secondary that’s been exposed by Geno Smith (38-56, 395 yards, 1 TD) and Matthew Stafford (34-49, 317 yards, 1 TD) this season. Last time Dallas played Detroit in Week 17 of 2023, Prescott threw for 345 yards and 2 TD’s on 26-38 passing, while CeeDee Lamb caught 13 balls for 227 yards and 1 TD on 17 targets.
NE (+6.5) vs HOU; O/U 37.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: NE vs HOU
- Houston enters Week 6 as the league’s highest-powered passing attack with an excellent matchup against an NE secondary that ranks 24th in passing YPG, 26th in YPA and 27th in passes of 10+ yards. The Texans will be without WR Nico Collins for an extended period of time, but Stroud and this passing attack will still have opportunities to move the ball through the air against a defense that has been torched by Brock Purdy (15-27, 288 yards, 1 TD), Aaron Rodgers (27-35, 281 yards, 2 TD’s) and Geno Smith (33-44, 327 yards, 1 TD) this season.
- Drake Maye will debut as a Patriot with a lackluster corps of playmakers against a Houston secondary that ranks 4th in passing YPG allowed, 4th in YPA and 3rd in passes of 10+ yards. It is difficult to envision a WR corps of Demario Douglas, Kayshon Boutte, Hunter Henry, Ja’Lynn Polk and Kendrick Bourne getting much separation against this Texans’ secondary.
- To make matters worse, Maye will operate behind one of the worst OL’s in football that ranks 30th in sacks allowed and 31st in QB hits allowed, matching up against a Houston front 7 that ranks 8th in sacks. Brissett was sacked 13 times in total in Weeks 3 and 4 against the Jets and 49ers; Maye certainly has better mobility than Brissett, but will not have time in the pocket to see routes develop.
- NE is 0-4 ATS in their L4 games and does not enjoy a favorable matchup in Week 6 against the Texans, whose strengths could make this a long day for Drake Maye and company.
Under of the Week
CAR vs ATL – UNDER 46.5 – FD
Game Matchup Dashboard: CAR vs ATL
- Atlanta is fresh off a dramatic win on Thursday Night Football over the Bucs in which Kirk Cousins threw for 509 yards and 4 TD’s on 42-58 passing, which may give some pause when assessing the viability of this Under, but they will match up against a Carolina offense that ranks 27th in the league in EPA/play that just posted 10 points and finished 3-12 on 3rd down on the road in Chicago in Week 5.
- Andy Dalton turned some heads in Week 3 against the Raiders, stepping in for Bryce Young and throwing for 319 yards and 3 TD’s, but he’ll now face an Atlanta secondary that ranks 7th in passing YPG and 10th in YPA. Dalton has thrown for just 178 YPG in his last two starts against the Bears (6th in passing YPG) and Bengals (16th in passing YPG), while Atlanta has held Baker Mayfield (19-24, 180 yards), Pat Mahomes (26-39, 217 yards), Jalen Hurts (23-30, 183 yards) and Justin Fields (17-23, 156 yards) in check this season.
- Atlanta may have success moving the ball through the air against Carolina, but they rank 28th in RZ TD %. Carolina meanwhile has an offense that is regressing back to its mean with Andy Dalton at the helm with a lack of playmakers in his receiving corps and a running game that is incapable of generating explosive plays. Expect Atlanta to move the ball on offense, but do not expect Carolina to serve as a worthy running mate and take the UNDER 46.5.
Player Props of the Week
Player Matchup Dashboard: Rushing YPG
Jahmyr Gibbs O57.5 Rushing Yards – FD
- Jahmyr Gibbs has continued to take carry share from David Montgomery in 2024 and now enjoys an excellent matchup against a Dallas run defense that’s been exposed on multiple occasions by Derrick Henry (25 carries, 151 yards, 6.0 YPC, 2 TD’s) and Alvin Kamara (20 carries, 115 yards, 5.8 YPC, 3 TD’s). Gibbs has cleared this number in each of his L3 games and figures to be an integral part of the offensive gameplan against a Dallas run defense that ranks 24th in rushing YPG allowed.
- Gibbs missed time in training camp with a hamstring injury, but Dan Campbell has described Gibbs as having “his legs back under” him and “on the uptick.” Campbell continued, “He continues to get better, and there was about probably three runs in there that are this close to going all the way. And every week there’s been more and more of these that are this close, so I would anticipate he’s really about to take off. He’s coming on.”
- Detroit traded up to get Gibbs in last year’s draft, and Campbell’s comments corroborate with his uptick in production and carry share over the L3 weeks. Expect Gibbs (5.3 YPC) to have a big role in the offense as he continues to demonstrate himself as the more efficient runner alongside Montgomery (4.3 YPC) and take O57.5 rushing yards.
Josh Jacobs O66.5 Rushing Yards – FD
- Josh Jacobs leads a GB rushing attack that ranks 3rd in rushing YPG and runs of 10+ yards and 8th in YPC. He will now line up against an Arizona defense that ranks 28th in rushing YPG that has allowed Jordan Mason (14 carries, 89 yards, 6.4 YPC), Brian Robinson (21 carries, 101 yards, 4.8 YPC, 1 TD), David Montgomery (23 carries, 105 yards, 4.6 YPC, 1 TD) and Jahmyr Gibbs (16 carries, 83 yards, 5.2 YPC) all have outsized success in the L3 weeks.
- Jacobs sputtered in Weeks 3 and 5 against Minnesota (2nd in rushing YPG allowed) and Tennessee (15th in rushing YPG allowed), but has cleared this number against Philly (21st), Indy (31st) and LAR (32nd). Jordan Love should be able to move the ball through the air against a suspect Arizona secondary, but expect Jacobs’ to make a significant impact on this game when he gets the opportunity and take O66.5 rushing yards.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 6 of the 2024 season, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
Agree or disagree with anything we’ve discussed? Give us a follow on X and let us know!