We provide impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
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Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results
GB (-2.5) vs HOU; O/U 47.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: GB vs HOU
- CJ Stroud and the Texans did not light up the box score in the passing game against NE in Week 6, but they are still a top 3 unit that will now line up against a GB secondary that ranks 25th in passing YPG and passes of 10+ yards allowed. The Texans are going to miss their deep threat in Nico Collins, but Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell combined for 13 receptions, 134 yards and 2 TD’s on 16 total targets in Week 6 and should expect to see similar target volume in Week 7 against this GB secondary.
- Green Bay meanwhile has one of the most efficient offenses in football under Jordan Love. They will face a Houston defense that grades extremely well thus far in 2024, but the Texans have cluster injuries at LB and in the secondary. They will be without starting LB’s Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To’oTo’o, CB Kamari Lassiter and S Jimmie Ward. GB just posted 437 yards of offense at home against Arizona in Week 7 and has the talent at skill positions to exploit a banged up Houston defense in Week 7.
MIN (-1.5) vs DET; O/U 50.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: MIN vs DET
- The Lions continue to operate one of the most efficient and explosive offenses in football and now head to Minnesota for a critical divisional matchup against the 5-0 Vikings. Under Brian Flores, the Vikings have one of the highest-rated defenses in football, ranking 1st in EPA/play and 5th in YPP allowed, but they are suspect in the passing game, ranking 30th in passing YPG allowed and 27th in passes of 10+ yards.
- Goff and the Lions rank 4th in passing YPG and 1st in YPA. The emergence of Jameson Williams as a reliable deep threat has been a promising development for Detroit, who just posted 492 yards of total offense, 47 points and 315 yards through the air in Week 6 against Dallas. Jared Goff has thrown for at least 290 yards in 3 of his L4 games with 7 TD’s and 1 INT, while Jordan Love (32-54, 389 yards, 4 TD’s, 3 INT’s) and Brock Purdy (28-36, 319 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) have had success against this secondary this season.
- Minnesota has been stout against the run, ranking 2nd in rushing YPG, YPC and runs of 10+. It’s difficult to envision that they are going to completely slow down David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, but Detroit should place a stronger emphasis on the passing game given the secondary’s weakness.
- Detroit is 3-0 ATS in their L3 games and has posted 40+ points in each of the L2 weeks against the Cowboys and Seahawks.
ATL (-3.0) vs SEA; O/U 50.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: ATL vs SEA
- Atlanta is hitting their stride on the offensive side of the ball with Kirk Cousins at the helm – they rank 5th in YPP, 10th in early down success rate, 6th in passing YPG, 10th in YPC and runs of 10+ yards and 7th in RZ trips. In the L2 weeks, Atlanta posted 550 yards of offense on TNF against Tampa Bay and another 423 yards of offense on the road in Carolina.
- Seattle is down two of their top 4 cornerbacks on the road in Week 7. SF posted 483 yards of total offense (7.9 YPP) on Seattle on TNF last week. Brock Purdy (18-28, 255 yards, 3 TD’s), Daniel Jones (23-24, 257 yards, 2 TD’s) and Jared Goff (18-18, 292 yards, 2 TD’s) have all been extremely efficient against Seattle in the L3 weeks, which bodes well for Kirk Cousins, who exploded for 509 yards and 4 TD’s on 42-58 passing against TB’s 28th ranked secondary two weeks ago.
- Tyler Allgeier (18 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) and Bijan Robinson (15 carries, 95 yards, 2 TD’s) combined for 200 yards on the ground against Carolina’s 31st ranked run defense in Week 6; both should expect significant volume on the ground in Week 7 against a Seattle run defense that ranks 27th in rushing YPG and YPC.
WAS (-8.5) vs CAR; O/U 51.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: WAS vs CAR
- The Commanders will enjoy the best offensive matchup on the Week 7 slate. They will face a Carolina defense that ranks 32nd in EPA/play, 29th in YPP, 31st in YPA, 31st in rushing YPG, 24th in runs of 10+ yards, 29th in RZ trips per game and 30th in RZ TD %. Washington is averaging 34+ PPG over the L4 weeks with an efficient running game that ranks 5th in rushing YPG, YPC and runs of 10+ yards.
- Carolina’s offensive metrics are influenced by Bryce Young’s performances and Andy Dalton isn’t an elite quarterback, but the Panthers will have an opportunity to move the ball on offense against a Washington unit that ranks 25th in EPA/play, 28th in YPP, 28th in 3rd down conversion rate, 23rd in passing YPG, 28th in YPC and 29th in RZ TD %.
- The Commanders and Panthers are both 5-1 to the Over this season; expect offensive production and points on either side of the ball in this matchup given deficiencies within both units and cluster injuries for Carolina.
TB (+3.5) vs BAL; O/U 49.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: TB vs BAL
- The Bucs and Ravens enter Week 7 with two of the most efficient offenses in football and secondaries that struggle to defend the pass. Baker Mayfield and the Bucs rank 9th in passing YPG and 7th in passes of 10+ yards, facing a Baltimore secondary that ranks 32nd in passing YPG allowed and passes of 10+ yards allowed. The Ravens meanwhile rank 8th in passing YPG and 4th in passes of 10+ with a matchup against a Bucs’ secondary that ranks 28th in passing YPG and 26th in passes of 10+ yards.
- Baltimore is the league’s top run defense, which is going to force TB to resort to the passing game to sustain offense in this one. TB meanwhile grades as an average run defense, but they missed Vita Vea at DT for several games and have been stout over the L3 weeks since he returned.
- The Bucs are 3-0 to the Over in their L3 games, while Baltimore is 5-1 to the Over on the season. Given deficiencies in either secondary, expect offensive production through the air on both sides of the ball on MNF.
Under of the Week
PIT / NYJ – UNDER 39 – DK
Game Matchup Dashboard: PIT vs NYJ
- Sunday Night Football is going to feature a matchup of two top-10 defenses by EPA/play and an offense led by Russell Wilson. The Jets rank 9th in the league in EPA/play and 3rd in YPP allowed, while the Steelers rank 7th in EPA/play and YPP allowed.
- Russell Wilson played the majority of the first half of Pittsburgh’s preseason game against the Bill. On 5 drives, Wilson led the steelers to three 3-and-outs, 34 yards in total and a drive that ended in a missed 52-yard FG. Russell Wilson looked like a shell of himself the last two seasons in Denver, and it’s difficult to envision Wilson lighting up the scoreboard against a Jets’ secondary that ranks 2nd in the league in passing YPG allowed and a front 7 that ranks 4th in sacks. Wilson has been dealing with a calf injury that’s kept him out of action in the first 6 weeks of the season.
- Pittsburgh has generally been excellent on the defensive side of the ball, particularly in the running game, where they rank 4th in rushing YPG and 3rd in YPC. The Jets continue to have issues on their OL and operate a running game that ranks 30th in the league in rushing YPG and 29th in YPC. Breece Hall ran for 113 yards on 18 carries against Buffalo’s suspect run defense in Week 6 on MNF, but the Jets are going to need to rely on Rodgers, Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams to sustain offense in Week 7.
- The Steelers will be without starting C Zach Frazier, which is likely going to be an issue against the Jets’ DL that is proficient in getting after the quarterback, ranking 4th in sacks per game.
- The addition of Davante Adams is intriguing for the Jets on the offensive side of the ball, but this offense is pedestrian, ranking 25th in EPA/play and YPP. Russell Wilson lacks mobility, now operates behind a banged up OL without their starting center against a top 5 pass rush a top 10 Jets’ defense; take the UNDER 39 on SNF.
Player Props of the Week
Player Matchup Dashboard: Passing YPG
Jared Goff O251.5 Passing Yards – DK
- Jared Goff leads a Detroit passing attack that ranks 4th in the league in passing YPG and 1st in YPA into a divisional matchup on the road with the Vikings, who rank 30th in passing YPG and 27th in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Minnesota has struggled to defend the pass, but ranks 2nd in the league in rushing YPG allowed, an indication that Detroit’s diversified passing attack is going to be a key part of the gameplan of exploiting Brian Flores’ unit.
- Jordan Love (32-54, 389 yards, 4 TD’s, 3 INT’s) and Brock Purdy (28-36, 319 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) have been incredibly productive against this secondary in 2024 leading efficient offenses that can move the ball on the ground and through the air.
- Goff has cleared this number in 3 of his L4 games in a stretch where he is averaging 278+ yards passing and is completing nearly 73% of his attempts. Goff cleared this number in two matchups with Minnesota in the late stages of the 2023-24 campaign. Goff threw for 257 yards and 1 TD on 30-40 passing in Week 16 of 2023 320 yards and 2 TD’s on 23-32 passing in Week 18.
- Expect Goff to have plenty of opportunity to move the ball through the air to his arsenal of targets assuming that Minnesota slows down Detroit’s running game, and take Goff O251.5 passing yards.
AJ Brown O73.5 Receiving Yards – FD
- AJ Brown missed 3 games with a hamstring injury but has been the centerpiece of the Eagles’ passing attack when healthy. In two games this season, Brown has 11 receptions, 19 targets, 235 receiving yards and 2 TD’s. He has cleared 116 receiving yards in both starts this season and is Jalen Hurts favorite target when healthy.
- The Eagles do not have a clear cut WR3 and will be without TE Dallas Goedert in Week 7, meaning that Brown and DeVonta Smith will likely see the bulk of target share against a Giants’ secondary that’s been average against the pass this season.
- The Giants rank 32nd in YPC and 26th in runs of 10+ yards allowed in 2023; if the Eagles can establish the ground game with Barkley, expect them to open things up in the passing game with play action and for Hurts to target Brown over the top. AJ Brown is one of the league’s most explosive receivers and deep ball catchers; expect him to have opportunities to take the top off of the Giants’ defense in Week 7 and take O73.5 receiving yards.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 7 of the 2024 season, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
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