We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
Saturday Injury Updates and Impacts to Key Skill Positions
- Cleveland Browns: CB Denzel Ward is questionable after suffering a knee injury on Thursday, which is not a great development considering Cleveland will be facing CJ Stroud and a Houston offense that ranks 5th in passing YPG, YPA and passes of 10+. Amari Cooper was limited this week but will be good to go.
- Houston Texans: The Texans are banged up on both sides of the ball, as DE Will Anderson Jr, WR Noah Brown, DT’s Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins and DE Jonathan Greenard are all questionable. WR’s Robert Woods and Noah Brown are going to be game-time decisions, which will present a challenge against a Browns’ defense that ranks 1st in EPA/play, series conversion rate and 3rd down rate and 2nd in passing YPG allowed, YPA and passes of 10+ allowed.
- Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins are battling some significant injuries on both sides of the ball; RB Raheem Mostert and WR Jaylen Waddle are listed as questionable, while S’s Deshon Elliot and Jevon Holland DNP this week and are listed as questionable and CB Xavien Howard is OUT. These are going to present issues against a Chiefs’ offense that has been inconsistent this season but ranks 10th in EPA/play, 9th in series conversion rate, 6th in 3rd down % and 7th in passing YPG, especially considering the Dolphins allowed Buffalo to post 473 yards and Josh Allen to throw for 359 yards, 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s on 30-38 passing.
- Buffalo Bills: WR Gabe Davis and S Taylor Rapp are OUT, while CB Rasul Douglas is questionable; Douglas DNP on Friday.
- Pittsburgh Steelers: TJ Watt is OUT which is a big issue for the Steelers’ on defense against Buffalo’s high-powered offensive attack, although weather conditions are looking less than ideal.
- Green Bay Packers: CB Jaire Alexander rolled his ankle on Wednesday and is now going to be a game-time decision; that could be quite an issue against a Dallas offense that ranks 3rd in EPA/play, 2nd in series conversion rate, 6th in YPP, 2nd in 3rd down conversion rate, 3rd in passing YPG and passes of 10+ yards and 7th in YPA. WR’s Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are both questionable heading into a matchup against a Cowboys’ secondary that ranks 5th in passing YPG and 6th in passes of 10+ yards.
- Detroit Lions: TE Sam LaPorta is questionable after being carted off against the Vikings in Week 18; Detroit will get CJ Gardner-Johnson back at S. They will need his presence against a high-powered Rams’ passing attack that ranks 9th in YPP, 9th in YPA and 8th in passes of 10+ yards facing a Lions’ secondary that ranks 25th in YPP allowed, 29th in passing YPG, 30th in YPA and 32nd in passes of 10+ yards.
- Philadelphia Eagles: WR AJ Brown and S Reed Blankenship and Sydney Brown DNP on Friday; Brown tore his ACL in Week 18, and if Reed Blankenship can’t play, Tristin McCollum will get snaps at FS alongside Kevin Byard.
How We Got Here – NFC, AFC Offensive & Defensive Efficiency Trends
- The NFC has a significant concentration of highly efficient offenses – 6 of 7 contenders on this side of the NFL playoff bracket rank inside the top 10 by our offensive efficiency ratings as of Week 18. Dallas, SF, Detroit have been offensive juggernauts throughout the course of 2023, while the Rams have been a surprise with the emergence of Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua. Jordan Love has settled into his own in GB and the Packers’ have climbed the rankings since the midpoint of the season.
- The NFC has some very poor defensive units, most notably lead by the Eagles’ defense and secondary that has fallen off a cliff since Week 9. The Eagles have bottomed out and have not bounced back – they cannot stop the pass, get off the field on 3rd down or stop opponents in the RZ and as a result will likely get boat-raced by a higher quality NFC opponent should they advance past TB on MNF.
- The AFC has a wider dispersion of offensive units compared to the NFC – Miami and Buffalo lead the pack, while Baltimore has been on a tear and are averaging 34 PPG over their L10 games excluding the Week 18 matchup against PIT. KC’s offense is obviously flush with talent, but they rank 23rd in turnovers and 31st in offensive penalty yards, which is a drag on their rating in our offensive efficiency metric.
- Whereas the NFC has a concentration of highly inefficiency defenses, the AFC skews more competitively on the defensive side of the ball with 4 units ranking in the league’s top 10 heading into WC weekend. Baltimore has flat-lined as the league’s most efficient unit, while KC and CLE’s defenses have played significant roles in their success over the course of the regular season.
Where We Are Now – 360-Degree Breakdown of Each Contender
Mismatches That Will Impact Game Results
- The Rams head to Detroit with an offense led by Matt Stafford that ranks 7th in offensive efficiency, 9th in EPA/play, 10th in series conversion rate, 9th in YPP and early down success rate, 8th in 3rd down conversion rate, 9th in YPA, 8th in passes of 10+ yards and 4th in RZ TD %; they will be facing a Detroit defense that has regressed significantly over the course of the season and now enters the playoffs ranking 25th in defensive efficiency, 23rd in series conversion rate, 25th in YPP allowed, 29th in passing YPG allowed, 30th in YPA, 32nd in passes of 10+ yards and 29th in RZ TD %.
- Joe Flacco is averaging a 62.5% completion rate, 340.5 passing YPG with 11 TD’s and 300+ passing yards in each of his L4 starts at the helm for the Browns; he will be facing a Houston secondary that ranks 25th in passing YPG, 27th in YPA and is banged up on the DL with injuries at DE and DT. In Week 16 against Houston, he finished 27-42 for 374 yards, 3 TD’s and 3 INT’s.
- Dallas has been an offensive juggernaut at home in 2023 and now has an excellent matchup against a Packers’ defense that could very likely be without Jaire Alexander and ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, 23rd in EPA/play, 28th in series conversion rate, 25th in early down success rate, 28th in rushing YPG allowed, 25th in runs of 10+ yards, 23rd in RZ Trips allowed and 29th in RZ TD %. Dallas’ offense is among the league’s most efficient, ranking 2nd in offensive efficiency, 3rd in EPA/play, 2nd in series conversion rate, 6th in YPP, 5th in early down success rate, 2nd in 3rd down conversion rate, 3rd in passing YPG, 7th in YPA, 3rd in passes of 10+ yards allowed and 1st in both RZ trips and RZ TD %.
Matchups in the Trenches
- The Rams’ OL has been effective in protecting Matt Stafford, ranking 6th in sacks allowed, facing a Lions’ pass rush that ranks 23rd in sacks on the season.
- On the opposite side of this matchup, the Lions’ OL has been excellent in protecting Goff, ranking 4th in sacks allowed and now taking on a Rams’ pass rush that ranks 23rd in both sacks and QB hits on the season.
- Houston’s OL ranks 22nd in the league in sacks allowed, now facing a Browns’ pass rush lead by Myles Garrett that ranks 6th in the league in sacks in 2023. Dating back to Week 11, Texans’ QBs have been sacked at least 4 times in 5 of 8 games. The Browns meanwhile have sacked the opposing passer at least 3 times in 11 of their L14 games.
- Miami enters the postseason ranking 3rd in the league in sacks on the season, but they have lost 2 of their top 4 sack leaders over the past month of the season in Bradley Chubb and Jalen Phillips, which has forced them to sign Melvin Ingram, Bruce Irvin (36 years old) and Justin Houston (35 years old) this week. They will face a KC OL that ranks 2nd in the league in sacks allowed, a credit to that unit but also to Mahomes’ escapability in the pocket.
- Miami’s 4th ranked OL by pass protection will face a Chiefs’ pass rush that ranks 2nd in the league in sacks on the season and got to Tua 3 times in Germany, holding him to just 193 yards passing and a TD on 21-34 passing in Week 9.
Player Props of the Week
Joe Flacco O274.5 Passing Yards – DKNG
- Flacco is averaging a 62.5% completion rate, 340.5 passing YPG with 11 TD’s and 300+ passing yards in each of his L4 starts at the helm for the Brown. In Week 16 against Houston, he finished 27-42 for 374 yards, 3 TD’s and 3 INT’s, finding Amari Cooper for 11 catches, 265 yards and 2 TD’s on 15 targets
- Houston’s defense ranks 25th in passing YPG, 27th in YPA and is banged up on the DL with injuries at DE and DT. Houston has played a very light schedule of opposing QB’s this year that includes – Minshew 2x, Tannehill, Levis, Russell Wilson, Bryce Young, Derek Carr, Desmond Ridder, Kenny Pickett and still among the league’s 8 worst secondaries. Desmond Ridder (329 yards), Derek Carr (353 yards), Trevor Lawrence (279 yards, 364 yards), Burrow (356 yards), Zach Wilson (301) have all cleared this number.
- Houston’s run defense is 6th in YPG allowed and 1st in YPC – this is likely going to force the Browns to resort to the passing game again; the Texans rank 28th in the league in TE yards allowed, which bodes well for David Njoku as well, who is averaging 93 receiving YPG over the L4 weeks. Flacco is 11-4 ATS in his playoff career and has an excellent matchup against a significantly below average secondary; take Flacco O274.5 passing yards.
Matthew Stafford O275.5 Passing Yards – FD
- Matthew Stafford leads a Rams’ offense that ranks 7th in offensive efficiency, 9th in EPA/play, 10th in series conversion rate, 9th in YPP and early down success rate, 8th in 3rd down conversion rate, 9th in YPA, 8th in passes of 10+ yards and 4th in RZ TD %. Stafford has cleared this number in 4 of L5 games against some particularly good secondaries:
- 279 vs CLE (1st in passing YPG allowed)
- 294 vs BAL (6th in passing YPG allowed)
- 328 vs NO (5th in passing YPG allowed)
- 317 vs NYG (17th in passing YPG allowed)
- Stafford will be returning home to Detroit in the dome against a Lions’ defense that ranks 29th in passing YPG, 30th in YPA and 32nd in passes of 10+ yards on the season. Nick Mullens has torched the Lions in 2 of the L3 weeks, going for 411 yards, 2 TD’s but 4 INT’s on and 22-36 passing in Week 16 and 396 yards, 2 TD’s and 2 INT’s on 22-36 passing in Week 18. Dak Prescott meanwhile finished 26-38 for 345 yards and 2 TD’s in Week 17 against Detroit.
- Expect Stafford to be able to move the chains against this defense that ranks 25th in DE, 23rd in series conversion rate, 25th in YPP and post some significant production against the Lions on the road on Wild Card weekend. Take Stafford O275.5 passing yards.
Chiefs -4.5 – FD
- KC has home field advantage in a game that’s going to be played in extremely frigid conditions at Arrowhead; they enter with an offense that’s hamstrung themselves with TO’s and offensive penalty yards, but enters the postseason ranking 10th in EPA/play, 9th in series conversion rate, 7th in YPP, 6th in 3rd down conversion rate, 7th in passing YPG, 9th in passes of 10+, 7th in YPC, 7th in RZ trips per game and 2nd in sacks allowed.
- KC has been excellent in sack avoidance as a function of their pass protection and Mahomes’ escapability; on the surface they’ll be facing a Miami DL that ranks 3rd in sacks and 1st in QB hits but has lost Jalen Phillips and Bradley Chubb to the IR over the last month of the season, which has forced them to sign Melvin Ingram, Bruce Irvin (36 years old) and Justin Houston (35 years old) this week to bolster their DL.
- Miami’s secondary is also extremely banged up; CB Xavien Howard is OUT, while S Jevon Holland and S Deshon Elliot both DNP on Tuesday to Thursday. Jalen Ramsey was a LP all week but does not have an injury designation entering tonight’s matchup.
- Buffalo just posted 473 yards in total in Week 18 – Allen finished 359 yards, 2 TD’s, 2 INT’s on 30-38 passing, and BUF logged 5 trips to RZ, finishing just 2-5. They were 9-15 on 3rd down and moved the ball at will until they got near the RZ. It should not be forgotten that the Dolphins a week prior allowed the Ravens to post 56 points and 491 yards of total offense; Lamar Jackson finished 18-21 for 321 yards and 5 passing TD’s, while the Ravens in total finished 5-5 on RZ trips.
- KC ranks 7th in the league in RZ trips on the season, now facing a Miami defense that ranks 28th in RZ TD % and have allowed the Bills and Ravens to finish 7-10 in the RZ over the L2 weeks of the season.
- Cold weather in KC is going to be a factor for the Dolphins, who have a +131 point differential at home and a -26 point differential on the road in 2023.
- KC enters this game with homefield advantage, an excellent defense that held Tua to just 193 yards passing and a TD on 21-34 passing in Week 9 and an efficient offense that should be able to take advantage of significant cluster injuries on both the DL and in the secondary. Take Chiefs -4.5 at Arrowhead.
Teaser of the Week
Cowboys -1 / Rams +9
- Dallas is an offensive juggernaut, particularly at home where they have a +172 point differential and are 6-2 ATS on the season with an average cover margin of +13 points. They enter this matchup with a high octane offense that ranks 2nd in offensive efficiency, 3rd in EPA/play, 2nd in series conversion rate, 6th in YPP, 5th in early down success rate, 2nd in 3rd down conversion rate, 3rd in passing YPG, 7th in YPA, 3rd in passes of 10+ yards allowed and 1st in both RZ trips and RZ TD %.
- Dallas will face a GB defense that could likely be without Jaire Alexander and ranks 27th in defensive efficiency, 23rd in EPA/play, 28th in series conversion rate, 25th in early down success rate, 28th in rushing YPG allowed, 25th in runs of 10+ yards, 23rd in RZ Trips allowed and 29th in RZ TD %.
- Dallas ranks 1st in the league in RZ trips and RZ TD %, now facing a GB defense that ranks 23rd in RZ trips per game and 29th in % of drives to reach the RZ.
- Dak Prescott is averaging 309 passing YPG at home with 22 TD’s and just 3 INT’s in 2023; Green Bay’s defense has regressed significantly over the 2nd half of the season and has turned in some particularly concerning tape against below average offenses over the last month of the season. Bryce Young, who finished 2023 averaging 180 passing YPG, turned in the best performance of his rookie season against Green Bay, finishing 23-36 for 312 yards and 2 TD’s in Week 16. Baker Mayfield, who finished 2023 averaging 238 passing YPG, finished 22-38 for 381 yards and 3 TD’s in Week 15.
- Green Bay’s offense has progressed over the 2nd half of this season (7-2 to the OVER in L9) and may have some success against Dallas, but if their defense can’t slow down the Cowboys early, they’re going to be forced into some obvious passing situations. Dallas should win this game at home to advance to the Divisional Round.
- The Rams head to Detroit with an offense led by Matt Stafford that ranks 7th in offensive efficiency, 9th in EPA/play, 10th in series conversion rate, 9th in YPP and early down success rate, 8th in 3rd down conversion rate, 9th in YPA, 8th in passes of 10+ yards and 4th in RZ TD %; they will be facing a Detroit defense that has regressed significantly over the course of the season and now enters the playoffs ranking 25th in defensive efficiency, 23rd in series conversion rate, 25th in YPP allowed, 29th in passing YPG allowed, 30th in YPA, 32nd in passes of 10+ yards and 29th in RZ TD %.
- Stafford and the Rams take advantage of their opportunities in the RZ, ranking 4th in RZ TD %, now facing a DET defense that ranks 29th in RZ TD %.
- Detroit’s secondary will get CJGJ back for the Wild Card round but is allowing opponents to throw for 394 YPG over the L3 weeks, which is not a good trend considering LA’s explosiveness in the passing game and propensity to push the ball down the field – the Rams rank 8th in passes of 10+ yards.
- The Rams are 5-1 ATS and to the OVER in their L6, excluding the Week 18 matchup against SF where starters DNP. They are averaging 31.3 PPG in that stretch and now have an excellent opportunity to continue to move the chains against a Lions’ defense that is more of a liability than an asset at this juncture of the season. The Rams will have every opportunity to stay competitive throughout this game – +9 takes you through key numbers of 4, 6 and 7.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Wild Card Weekend and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to target the player prop markets.
Agree or disagree with anything we’ve discussed? Give us a follow on X and let us know!