Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized
WEEK 1 TAKEAWAYS
Net yards per play is an excellent, all-encompassing metric to quantify a team’s success in yards per play gained on offense, less a team’s yards per play allowed on defense.
Buffalo and Kansas City dominated in Week 1.
Indy outgained Houston by a net 1.25 yards per play but tied the game in Matt Ryan and Frank Reich’s first game together.
Denver outgained Seattle by a net 1.2 yards per play, but lost the game largely due to two fumbles at the Seahawks’ goal line on the opening 2 possessions of the 2nd half and an attempted 64-yard game winner.
Dallas lost Dak Prescott for an extended period of time, but looked like a dumpster fire on offense even before he left with an injury.
3rd down avoidance can be misleading early in the season, but it is an indicative measure of a team’s ability to move the chains on first and second down. Kansas City faced just eight 3rd downs on 10 total drives and unsurprisingly led 37-7 by the end of the 3rd quarter.
Rankings will normalize as weeks go on, but the Lions and Commanders are in good company after Week 1 by Sporting Intelligence’s offensive efficiency metric.
Carson Wentz showed flashes of his 2017 alter ego with 4 TD’s and his 2018-2021 alter ego with interceptions on consecutive plays.
Detroit racked up 386 yards of total offense and 181 yards rushing against Philly to pair with a 9-14 conversion rate on 3rd down, but shot themselves in the foot early with a Pick 6 near the 6-minute mark in the 2nd quarter.
Kansas City
Buffalo
Detroit
Washington
New Orleans
Philadelphia
Offensive penalty yards hamstring the unit’s ability to build an effective drive into the opponent’s territory and red zone. Dallas led the league in offensive penalty yards assessed against them in 2021. They’re off to a hot start to lead the league in that metric in 2022.
Secondaries for the Texans, Steelers, Cardinals and Chargers allowed the most explosive passing plays in Week 1. The Texans will face the Broncos in Denver – Danger Russ found Jeudy for a 67-yard TD in Seattle and finished with 340 yards. Arizona’s revolving door of a secondary will have the honor of defending Davante Adams on the road in Week 2, while the Chargers will be matching up against KC’s new look offense on TNF.
Yards after catch allowed by a defense is an indicator of both an opponent’s ability to create separation and a defense’s ability to tackle a defender quickly. Seattle, Arizona, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville and Houston all had questions in the secondary heading into the season and allowed over 150 yards after the catch in Week 1.
Drives that make it to the red zone result in points significantly more often that drives that do not make it to the red zone.
Kansas City scored on each of their 6 trips inside Arizona’s 20-yard line.
Dallas, the most penalized offense in the league in Week 1, didn’t make it into Tampa’s red zone once.
Davante Adams made an immediate impact for the Raiders in his debut. He was targeted 17 times and took 7 receptions for over 10 yards.
AJ Brown’s connection with Jalen Hurts was immediate with 13 targets and 155 yards through the air.
Diontae Johnson looks to be Mitch Trubisky’s top target, while Javonte Williams caught 11 balls for 65 yards against a Seattle defense that led the league in RB receiving yards in 2021 with over 1,100.
Tyreek Hill flashed quickly in Miami, while Michael Pittman’s connection with Matt Ryan was immediate as well.
MATCHUPS WE LIKE IN WEEK 2
Chiefs vs. Chargers
With Tyreek Hill gone, there’s a relatively significant vacuum for targets in KC with the reshuffling that occurred at the WR position. Hill accounted for over 24% of Pat Mahomes’ targets in 2021.
At a first glance, the Chiefs’ 2022 offensive scheme appears to be centered around Travis Kelce with a stronger emphasis on the running game. Kelce caught 8 balls on 9 targets for 121 yards and a TD in Week 1 and is Mahomes’ longest-tenured and most trusted target on the current roster.
The Chargers’ defense allowed the most receiving yards to the TE position of any defense in 2021 with 1,170. Darren Waller caught 4 balls for 79 yards in Week 1.
Travis Kelce’s last three meetings with LAC:
Sept. 2020: 9 catches, 14 targets, 90 yds, 1 TD
Sept. 2021: 7 catches, 11 targets, 104 yds
Dec. 2021: 10 catches, 13 targets, 191 yds, 2 TD’s
We like Travis Kelce (O80.5, -115) to be a target for Mahomes early and often on TNF.
Raiders vs. Cardinals
Cardinals GM Steve Keim admitted before Week 1 that he was a “little concerned” about the depth at corner. The Cardinals allowed 192 yards after the catch (31st in Wk 1) and 14 passes over 10 yards (T-31st) against Kansas City to open the season.
Davante Adams was the most targeted receiver in the league in Week 1 in his first run with Derek Carr and trailed only Jamar Chase and AJ Brown in receptions over 10 yards in Week 1. We have our eyes peeled for his receiving yards prop as it becomes available.
Giants vs. Panthers
Saquon Barkley returned from injury and rushed for 164 yards on 18 carries against the Titans, including a vintage 63-yard rush early in the 3rd quarter. He is the deodorant for a Giants’ roster that is hamstrung by poor cap decisions the trailing 2-3 seasons.
The Titans had the league’s best rushing defense in 2021. Saquon and the Giants will face a Panthers rushing defense from a year ago that ranked 24th in the league in explosive run plays allowed and let Nick Chubb (22 carries, 141 yds) and Kareem Hunt (11 carries, 46 yds) rush for nearly 190 yards.
Saquon does not split carries the way Chubb and Hunt do, as he took 18 of NY’s 23 designed running plays in Week 1. We’ll be waiting for Saquon’s yardage total at the open ahead of Sunday.
