AROUND THE LEAGUE
Scoring in the NFL is down in 2022 through the first two weeks of the season relative to years past.
Net YPP rankings entering Week 3:
First half point differential rankings:
Offensive Efficiency Rankings Across the League
The Lions top the league in our offensive efficiency metric largely due to their ability to run the ball extremely effectively through the first two weeks of the year. Detroit is averaging 188 rushing yards per game and a staggering 7.7 yards per carry. They rank 4th in the league in red zone efficiency but are leading the league in red zone trips, with 10 trips and 8 TD’s. They also haven’t recorded a turnover.
Washington is the other surprising name near the top of the league in OE. Carson Wentz has been effective passing the football, averaging 325 yards per game (2nd in league) with 23 completions over 10 yards (8th in league). They’ve been effective on 3rd down (3rd in league in conversion rate) and are averaging only 11 offensive penalty yards per game (4th in league).
Defensive Efficiency Rankings Across the League
Jacksonville has popped early ranking 3rd in the league in our defensive efficiency rating after blanking the Colts at home 24-0 in Week 2. Their rushing defense has been extremely effective, holding Johnathan Taylor to 54 yards on 9 carries and ranking 3rd in the league in yards allowed. They’ve been able to generate an effective pass rush, get pressure on the QB (7th in sacks, 5th in QB hits) and force turnovers with 6 so far.
Pittsburgh ranks 8th in the league in defensive efficiency, but it will be interesting to see how the unit performs in TJ Watt’s absence.
Detroit has a highly capable offense and a very suspect defense which should continue to lead to Over’s early in the season.
New England’s offense has looked disorganized and inefficient, but Bill Bellichick has the defense playing effectively. Their Week 1 performance against the Dolphins looks more impressive after Miami’s offensive explosion against Baltimore in Week 2. The Patriots have only allowed two touchdowns, one of which was a sustained scoring drive against Pittsburgh.
Efficiency Ratings by NFC Divisions
Green Bay is the only team in the NFC with top 10 ratings in offensive and defensive efficiency. Philly’s defense looked much better in Week 2 against Kirk Cousins on MNF than they did against Detroit in Week 1.
Tampa’s offense has struggled so far this year, largely due to injuries to Brady’s receivers. He’ll miss Mike Evans in Week 3 after he was suspended for causing some ruckus against the Saints. Julio Jones and Chris Godwin were both DNP’s at Thursday’s practice. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bucs have hit their stride early in the season and look to be a top 5 defense in the league.
Trey Lance’s injury should bring some stability on offense with Jimmy G now at the helm. San Fran has faced the Bears and Seahawks, so their defensive ranking can be taken with a grain of salt heading into their matchup on MNF with the Rams.
Seattle knocked off Russ in the season opener, but they will continue to be exposed as one of the NFC’s most incomplete rosters as the season goes on.
Passing and Rushing Rankings Across the League
Philly has a well-balanced offensive attack through 2 weeks with a good matchup against Washington’s 28th ranked rushing defense in Week 3.
Justin Fields has been horrible through 2 weeks moving the ball through the air.
Detroit’s 3rd ranked rushing attack has a favorable matchup against Minnesota this weekend. The Vikings allowed the Eagles to rush for 163 yards on the ground on MNF (4.8 ypc).
Efficiency Ratings by AFC Divisions
The Bills have demonstrated themselves as the AFC’s most complete roster.
Cincy’s defense has performed well through the first two weeks of the season, but their OL has struggled to give Burrow time in the pocket and create an effective rushing attack to keep defenses honest against play action and the pass.
Matt Ryan’s stint in Indy has been a disaster so far. The Colts lack speed and playmakers on offense behind Michael Pittman and Johnathan Taylor.
Passing and Rushing Rankings by Offense in the AFC
Ryan Tannehill could have a short leash in Tennessee if he continues to conduct the offense the way he has through 2 weeks.
Vegas has plenty of weapons at WR and TE but has yet to build an effective rushing attack.
Baltimore’s passing defense has been exposed early in the season after finishing last in the league in pass yards allowed. They’ve allowed passers to throw for over 460 yards in their last 4 games – Burrow torched them for 525 yards in Week 18, while Tua went for 469 in Week 2. An ineffective pass rush is leaving their secondary on an island.
Red zone efficiency can be a misleading metric expressed as a percentage. Washington leads the league in efficiency, but Cleveland, Detroit and KC have logged the most trips into the red zone. Seattle and Denver have yet to convert a trip to the red zone into a TD.
Despite their struggles to find the end zone on the offensive side of the ball, Denver has yet to allow an opponent to convert an RZ trip into a TD. The Seahawks, Cardinals and Commanders have been allowing the highest rate of opponent RZ trips.
Pat Mahomes should have plenty of time in the pocket against Indy’s pass rush.
Tannehill may be in a bounceback spot against LV’s anemic pass rush after struggling mightily against Buffalo in Week 2.
After facing Pittsburgh and Dallas in the first two weeks, Joe Burrow should have some time in the pocket against the Jets in Week 3.
Daniel Jones has struggled to move the ball through the air and is going to have a tough day against Micah Parsons and Dallas’ pass rush on MNF. Rodgers is going to have a tough time building chemistry with his new receiving corps against Tampa’s top ranked pass rush.
The below are samples of Sporting Intelligence’s player matchup dashboards, which will be available next week ahead of Week 4 at gridironintel.com.
QB’s vs Wk 3 Pass Defenses
Tua is going to have a heavy lift against Buffalo’s 4th ranked passing defense after popping against Baltimore.
Russell Wilson is going to face a tough test against San Fran in Week 3 after back to back matchups with the Seahawks and Jets’ ineffective passing defenses. Jeudy is banged up and Denver does not look to have many weapons behind Courtland Sutton in the passing attack without Tim Patrick.
RB’s vs Wk 3 Rush Defenses
D’Andre Swift, Leonard Fournette, Miles Sanders and Jalen Hurts have some of the best matchups in the ground game in Week 3.
RB’s by Usage Rate vs Rushing Defenses
Joe Mixon has been the bell cow for Cincy so far and should have an opportunity to get their running game going against NYJ in Week 3.
RB’s vs Wk 3 Explosive Rush Defenses
RB’s vs Wk 3 Running Back Receiving Yards
WR’s vs Wk 3 Pass Defenses
WR’s vs Wk 3 Pass Defenses by YAC
WK 3 MATCHUP ANALYSIS
The below are samples of what Sporting Intelligence’s matchup dashboards illustrate. Matchup analysis dashboards will be available at gridironintel.com ahead of Week 4.
Colts vs Chiefs
KC’s offense has a very favorable matchup with Indy in Week 3, especially if Darius Leonard can’t go. KC’s 2nd ranked offensive by efficiency will be facing up with Indy’s 28th rated defense. They’ve been in the red zone early and often through the first two weeks and should have success against Indy’s 32nd ranked red zone defense which has allowed opponents to convert RZ trips into TD’s at a 100% clip.
Eagles vs. Commanders
Philly has a favorable matchup with Washington’s rushing defense in Week 3 and should look to attack that unit. Philly is averaging 190 yards rushing against a Commanders defense that ranks 28th in the league so far. Hurts and Sanders rushing props should be targets on Sunday in addition to Philly’s TT Over at 28 against Washington’s suspect defense that allowed Detroit to post 36 points in Week 2.
