Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized
AROUND THE LEAGUE
NET YPP RANKINGS – CURRENT VS WK 8
Reminder that before you place a wager on Minnesota in Wild Card Weekend that they rank 28th in the league in net yards per play with the ranks of the Bears, Giants, Chargers, Rams, Steelers, Cardinals and Texans. They are an incomplete team with an efficient offense and very bad secondary.
Philly, Buffalo, Kansas City and San Fran pass the eye test as 4 of the top 5 teams in the league, and not surprisingly rank 1 through 4 in net YPP. Cincy belongs in the top 5 argument – their net YPP is lagged slightly due to a slow start when their OL was a work in progress.
OFFENSIVE & DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RANKINGS BY WEEK
Philly has flat lined as the most efficient defense in the league by our rating system, which is a function of yards per play allowed, 3rd down conversion rate, red zone conversion rate, yards penalized and turnovers forced.
Dallas’ offense has climbed into the top 10 in efficiency over the last month of the season, primarily due to the resurgence of their running game. They lost RT Riley Steele last week, but will get LT Tyron Smith back into the lineup for the stretch run.
The only units ranked above the league’s midpoint in the NFC South are the Falcons’ offense and the Bucs’ defense. 8-9 is going to win this division.
New Orleans has the personnel on defense to duplicate their efficiency over the last 3-4 seasons but just has not performed this season.
SF’s offense has regressed slightly in Jimmy G’s absence, though Purdy has now proven to be a more than capable backup in two weeks since. Deebo Samuel’s absence will hurt in the short term, but he’ll be back earlier than expected. SF’s defense has gotten healthier as the season has progressed.
Chicago’s offensive efficiency has climbed steadily as the Bears’ have committed to using Fields’ legs to their advantage. Their defensive rating has plummeted without Roquan Smith – they cannot stop the run (28th in rush YPG) with a top 3 rushing attack in Philly coming to town this weekend.
Tua has led Miami to a top 10 rating in offensive efficiency but has laid several eggs over the L2 weeks against San Fran and the Chargers. Remove Tyreek Hill’s 60-yard TD from his stat line and Tua was 9-27 for 83 yards. Their defense will be a liability in a potential postseason experience. They’ll be a long way from South Beach on Saturday night in Orchard Park, where there’s a potential for 30-mph gusts and light to moderate snow at kickoff. Tua has demonstrated how he performs on the road and under pressure over the L2 weeks and has the potential to be severely exposed again in weather elements in Week 15.
Cincy’s offense has clicked over the last month thanks to an offensive line that’s protected Burrow relatively well over the last 2 months and has helped to generate a somewhat dangerous run game.
New England’s defense has been a bright spot. Having a former defensive coordinator coaching the offense has not paid dividends.
Baltimore’s defense has been excellent since the acquisition of Roquan Smith. Over the L3 weeks they rank 2nd in rushing yards allowed per game and 1st in yards per carry.
Similar to the NFC South, Tennessee’s offense and defense are the only two units within the division ranked above the league’s midpoint.
KC’s offense has been stellar without Tyreek Hill, while their defense continues to be a liability.
Denver has wasted an unbelievable season-long performance from their defense with incompetence on the offensive side of the football. They look to have a combination of a very bad contract at QB and a head coach out over his skis, which is a bad combination by my estimation.
Despite the hype heading into the season spawned by splashy offseason acquisitions, the Chargers are an average team on both sides of the ball.
POINT DIFFERENTIAL RANKINGS
Back to the Vikings: teams with even point differentials struggle to win playoff games.
Miami has been a great story this season with Mike McDaniels’ antics on the sideline, but they’re barely net positive on point differentials as well.
Red flags of potential playoff teams: Tampa Bay (-30), Tennessee (-35).
HOME / AWAY POINT DIFFERENTIALS
Miami is nearly 15 points worse by point differential on the road than they are at home this season, which is a notable metric as they head to Buffalo to play in sub 32-degree temperatures, 20+ mph winds and snow on Saturday night.
Buffalo is nearly 10 points better at home. They’ll be grinding to the end of the season to try to ensure that the AFC Championship goes through Buffalo.
Cincy and Detroit are two interesting teams down the stretch with significant home/road splits by point differential.
There’s little divergence between Philly’s point differential on the home vs. the road, which is an indicator of an elite team.
MATCHUP ANALYSIS
WORST OL MATCHUPS BY PASS PROTECTION
Chicago ranks 28th in the league in pass protection with Philly’s top-ranked pass rush coming to town this weekend. Fields will need to utilize his mobility to have any success off the bye.
Washington sacked Daniel Jones 4 times in Week 13 and held him to just 200 yards of passing in Week 13. Expect a similar amount of pressure in Week 15 with the Commanders off a bye.
BEST OL MATCHUPS BY PASS PROTECTION
Dallas heads into Week 15 without RT Riley Steele, but their top ranked OL by pass protection will have an excellent matchup against an anemic Jacksonville pass rush.
It will be strength on strength on Lions-Jets, Jags-Cowboys, Raiders-Patriots and Browns-Ravens.
Since losing to Denver in London, Trevor Lawrence leads the league in completion percentage and ranks 2nd in passer rating. He and his OL will face one of the toughest tests of the season against Dallas’ high-powered pass rush. He turned in the best game of his career against Tennessee’s 31st ranked secondary last week and will face a stark contrast against Dallas’ 4th ranked secondary in Week 15.
Similar to Lawrence, Jared Goff will go from facing a Minnesota secondary that ranks 32nd in passing yards per game, yards per attempt and explosive passing plays allowed to a Jets’ defense that can rush the QB effectively and defend the pass well (5th in passing YPG, 3rd in YPA and explosive passing plays). Expect some regression from Goff last week relative to this week.
Deshaun Watson has been particularly sharp in his return to football the last 2 weeks. He’ll face a Baltimore pass rush that is surging, ranking 9th in sacks over the L3 weeks.
RED ZONE MATCHUP ANALYSIS
KC leads the league by a relatively wide margin in RZ trips this season with 57. Baltimore, Detroit, LA Chargers and Minnesota are tied for 2nd with 48. They’ll face a Houston defense that ranks 22nd in RZ trips allowed. Travis Kelce has 28 RZ targets and has caught 17 balls for 102 yards and 10 TD’s inside the RZ in 2022.
Weather will be a factor, but Buffalo should have plenty of red zone opportunities against a Miami defense that ranks 26th in the league in RZ trips allowed. When opponents reach the red zone, Miami ranks 24th in TD rate. Stefon Diggs leads the Bills with 21 RZ targets in 2022 and should have an opportunity to put points on the board. He caught 7 balls for 76 yards on 11 targets in Week 3 vs. Miami.
Philly will face a Chicago defense that ranks 22nd in red zone trips allowed and 26th in red zone conversion rate. AJ Brown leads the Eagles with 14 red zone targets – he has caught 7 balls for 70 yds and 4 TD’s inside the RZ this season.
RB MATCHUP ANALYSIS
Derrick Henry has an excellent matchup with a Chargers’ defense that has been decimated by injuries to their interior DL and ranks 27th in rushing YPG allowed. On the season, the Chargers rank 32nd in the NFL in YPC allowed at nearly 5.6. Henry ranks 2nd in the league in % of his team’s carries, getting 75%+ of Tennessee’s designed runs. Teams committed to running the football have excelled recently against this DL that has 4 DT’s on IR:
Josh Jacobs: 26 carries, 144 yds, 1 TD (5.5 YPC)
McCaffrey / Mitchell / Samuel: 36 carries, 155 yds, 1 TD
Kenneth Walker III: 23 carries, 167 yds, 2 TD’s
Chubb / Hunt: 28 carries, 181 yds, 3 TD’s
Miles Sanders is having a huge contract year and is slated for another high volume week against Chicago’s defense that ranks 28th in rushing YPG, 25th in YPC and 29th in explosive rushing plays allowed. Sanders ranks 5th in the league in rushing YPG and 3rd in explosive rushes off a Week 14 performance against NYG’s 29th ranked rushing defense in which he rushed for 144 yards and 2 TD’s on just 17 carries, translating to a staggering 8.5 YPC.
In the same vein, Jalen Hurts should excel using his legs this weekend. As a QB, he ranks 9th in the league in explosive rushing plays against Chicago’s defense that ranks 29th in the league in explosive rushing plays allowed.
TEASER OF THE WEEK: EAGLES -3 / BILLS -1
As we discussed in last week’s newsletter, the Eagles love to run the football behind their top 3 OL and had an extremely juicy matchup with a Giants ‘ defense that ranks 29th in rushing YPG and 31st in explosive rushing plays. They have another excellent matchup this week against a Chicago defense that ranks 28th in rushing YPG and 29th in explosive rushing plays allowed. Chicago’s defensive production and efficiency has fallen off a cliff since they off-loaded Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith before the trade deadline. The Eagles are an elite roster from top to bottom on both sides of the football. They have a the league’s top pass rush that should tee off against a Chicago OL that ranks 28th in sacks allowed and a high-powered rushing attack that should allow them to control the clock. Fields is missing Darnell Mooney and is in for a rough game against a Philly secondary that ranks 2nd in passing YPG allowed and 1st in YPA. Take the Eagles from -9 to -3 through key numbers of 6 and 7.
Buffalo will be seeking to exact revenge against the Dolphins at home in a game that’s likely going to feature sub-optimal weather conditions. Tua has been exposed in the L2 weeks against the 49ers and Chargers. As we mentioned earlier, remove Tyreek Hill’s 60-yard TD from his stat line and Tua was 9-27 for 83 yards against a Chargers defense that ranks 29th in YPP allowed and 26th in total sacks. Buffalo has a high-powered pass rush that ranks 9th in sacks, 7th in YPA allowed, 4th in rushing YPG and 5th in YPC. Without an effective run game, this game will hinge on Tua’s ability to weather the elements. Take Buffalo from -7 to -1 through the key number of 3.