Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized
It would be inappropriate to commence this week’s newsletter without addressing Damar Hamlin’s fight for his life, the significant progress he’s made in his fight to get back to who he was at 8pm EST on Monday night and the aftermath of what transpired on the field in Cincinnati. His injury and the ensuing battle to regain consciousness are a sobering reminder of the fragility of life and our shared humanity. The hearts of NFL players beat as regularly as anyone’s and they deserve to be treated as such.
Damar Hamlin is a 24-year old young man with an incredibly bright future regardless of whether or not he ever steps on a football field again. He has dreams of becoming an entrepreneur off the field and used his platform as an NFL player immediately to give back to his community via the Chasing M’s Foundation Community Toy Drive.
You can donate to the Go Fund Me, which has already raised over $7.5M to date, here.
We hope that Damar’s condition continues to improve as rapidly as it has today on a go-forward basis.
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Here is an updated look at key metrics by current NFC contenders.
Philly, SF and Dallas have the most significant point differentials and all boast offenses and defenses in the top 10 in the league by efficiency. Barring anything unprecedented, the NFC representative is likely one of these three teams.
Minnesota and Tampa Bay are both showing negative point differentials heading into the postseason – not a good look for either team.
Green Bay and the NY Giants should be excited to be in the postseason but should not expect a deep run. The Packers have the luxury of Aaron Rodgers at QB in any postseason matchup should they beat the Lions on SNF and clinch a playoff berth. The Giants have their guy in Brian Daboll. More on the Packers-Lions matchup below.
Similar to the NFC, the AFC representative in the Super Bowl is likely one of three teams between the Chiefs, Bills and Bengals.
Doug Pederson deserves consideration for coach of the year should the Jaguars beat the Titans on Saturday and win the AFC South in his first season, especially when you look across the board at their season-long fundamentals and consider where the franchise was a year ago with Urban Meyer.
The Chargers finally have their receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams healthy and will be playing competitively this weekend to secure the 5th seed to avoid a first round matchup with the Chiefs, Bills or Bengals. They are one of the league’s most unpredictable teams on a week-to-week basis but have a superstar QB in Justin Herbert and offensive and defensive units that have surged into the top 10 of the league over the last month. Their unpredictability makes them a difficult team to back but also a darkhorse in the AFC and a must-watch.
2021 PLAYOFF TEAM FUNDAMENTALS
Using the same metrics we’ve examined the L2 weeks, it’s interesting to look back to 2021 to highlight the underlying fundamentals of teams that reached the NFL’s Final 4.
Each of the Rams, 49ers, Chiefs and Bengals had a top-10 point differential and an offensive efficiency rating ranking above 11. Only the Chiefs did not finish the season with a top-10 ranking in Net YPP.
Super Bowl LVI featured the league’s 3rd and 5th ranked offenses by our efficiency ratings. Only the Rams had a defense that ranked within the top 10 in our season-long defensive efficiency ratings. In today’s NFL, offense wins championships.
Generally speaking, a high-powered rushing attack did not translate to a deep postseason run in 2021.
Let’s look at the same metrics for 2020.
Again in 2020, Super Bowl LV between the Bucs and Chiefs featured the 3rd and 5th ranked offenses by our efficiency ratings. The Final 4 in 2020 ranked 1st, 3rd, 5th and 9th in offensive efficiency.
The Packers were the only team still alive in Championship Weekend with an above average rushing attack.
The Bucs were the only team still alive in Championship Weekend with an above average defense by our efficiency ratings.
We’ll dive into playoff matchups when the field is set next week. For now, let’s move onto Week 18 matchup analysis.
MATCHUP ANALYSIS
The Cowboys still have a chance to secure the NFC’s top seed with a win and losses by both PHI and SF. Their 3rd ranked pass rush will face off against Washington’s 26th ranked OL by pass protection and a mix of Taylor Heinicke and Sam Howell. In Week 4, the Cowboys defense held Carson Wentz to just 170 yards through the air with 2 sacks and 2 INT’s. In Weeks 11-13, Dallas’ pass rush faced the Vikings (28th by sacks allowed), Giants (27th) and Colts (31st). They racked up 13 sacks and held starting passers to an average of 207 YPG.
The Eagles are max motivated to beat the Giants at home to lock up home field advantage. In Week 14, they racked up 7 sacks of Daniel Jones / Tyrod Taylor and held the Giants to just 181 yds passing. It’s unclear what the Giants’ plan is with regard to their starters, but whoever is sitting in the pocket is going to have a tough time against this pass rush.
KC should protect Patrick Mahomes well against LV’s 30th ranked pass rush in a game in which they are playing to win and secure the top seed, despite the NFL’s ruling on Thursday night in which a potential Buffalo / KC AFC Championship game would be played at a neutral site. Mahomes threw for 292 yds and 4 TD’s in Week 5 against the Raiders. Over the L6 weeks, 5 of 6 QB’s have outperformed their season averages against the Raiders poor pass rush:
Geno Smith: 254 pass YPG avg; 328 yds, 2 TD’s vs LV
Justin Herbert: 279 pass YPG avg; 335 yds, 1 TD vs LV
Baker Mayfield: 183 pass YPG avg; 230 yds, 1 TD vs LV
Kenny Pickett: 184 pass YPG avg; 244 yds, 1 TD vs LV
Brock Purdy: 226 pass YPG avg; 284 yds, 2 TD’s vs LV
The 49ers have a shot at the NFC’s 1-seed with a win and a Philly loss. Both teams kick off at 4:25 EST. SF has a top 5 OL by pass protection facing a bottom 5 pass rush on the Arizona side. In Week 11, Jimmy G was not sacked and finished 20-29 for 228 yds and 4 TD’s. Brock Purdy will be facing this poor pass rush and a secondary that ranks 25th in passing YPG allowed and 29th in explosive passing plays allowed.
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There are two winner take playoff spot matchups in Week 18: GB / DET & JAX / TEN. Let’s dive into each matchup using our game matchup dashboards.
JAX -6 VS TEN, O/U 40
Tennessee has lost 6 straight entering this game amidst a flurry of injuries, while Jacksonville has surged to 4 straight victories and given themselves a chance for an improbable division title.
Tennessee enters with 10 days of rest, while Jacksonville will have just 6 days of rest.
Tennessee has struggled to defend the pass all season – they rank 32nd in passing YPG allowed and 30th in explosive passing plays. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence has been one of the most accurate and prolific passers in the league since Week 9 after a loss in London to the Broncos.
Over L3 weeks, the Jaguars’ offense ranks 3rd in offensive efficiency and 8th in YPP. Their defense ranks 6th in defensive efficiency and 4th in YPP allowed over the same span. Over the L3 weeks, the Titans’ offense ranks 26th in OE and 24th in YPP. Their defense ranks 25th in defensive efficiency but 8th in YPP allowed.
The Titans have dealt with injuries all season. Starting CB Kristian Fulton was a limited participant on Thursday and is questionable. S Amani Hooker and WR Treylon Burks DNP on Thursday and are both questionable. Burks was Josh Dobbs’ 2nd most targeted receiver and most productive receiver with 4 catches for 66 yds in the TNF matchup against the Cowboys.
The Titans allow the 2nd most receiving YPG to opposing tight ends in the NFL. Evan Engram caught 11 balls for 162 yds and 2 TD’s in Week 11.
Christian Kirk (O/U 62.5 receiving yds) and Zay Jones (O/U 58.5 receiving yds) need 98 yds and 91 yds respectively for $500K incentive bonuses.
Prop to consider: Trevor Lawrence O261.5 pass yds
Lawrence is facing the league’s worst secondary by passing YPG allowed that’s still battling injuries to their top corner and safety. He has been on fire since Week 9 and threw for 368 yds and 3 TD’s against the Titans in Week 11. The Titans conversely have the league’s 2nd ranked rushing defense by YPG allowed that ranks 1st in YPC. Jacksonville will likely put the ball in Lawrence’s hands to exploit Tennessee’s weakness and take them to the playoffs.
GB -4.5 VS DET, O/U 49.5
The Lion have one of the most explosive passing offenses in the league, ranking 5th in YPA, 6th in explosive passing plays and 2nd in % of drives to reach the red zone. When they’ve gotten to the red zone, they are extremely efficient, ranking 3rd in RZ TD %.
The Lions will be facing a somewhat suspect Packers’ secondary that ranks 1st in passing YPG allowed and explosive passing plays allowed that just locked up an explosive Vikings’ passing offense last week. They held Kirk Cousins to 18-31 passing for 205 yds, 1 TD and 3 INT’s and allowed Justin Jefferson to catch just 1 ball for 15 yds.
GB struggles to defend the run, ranking 27th in rushing YPG allowed and 26th in explosive rushing plays allowed. That said, the Lions are not an elite rushing offense.
On the season, Green Bay’s offense looks incredibly pedestrian, ranking 14th in YPP and offensive efficiency, 19th in passing YPG and 23rd in explosive passing plays. That said, they have the most attractive matchup you could possibly ask for in a winner take the playoffs matchup at home in Lambeau in Week 18. They’ll face a Lions’ defense that ranks 31st in defensive efficiency, 32nd in YPP allowed, 30th in 3rd down conversion rate and passing YPG, 31st in explosive passing plays allowed, 29th in rushing YPG allowed, 26th in explosive rushing plays allowed and 27th in RZ TD %.
In Wk 9 matchup, the Lions were missing DJ Chark, Jameson Williams, Josh Reynolds. D’Andre Swift played only 10 snaps.
In Wk 9, Aaron Rodgers turned in one of his worst games in recent memory. He threw for 291 yards on 29-43 passing with 1 TD, but threw 3 INT’s in a 15-9 loss. On paper and in the win-loss column, this shows up as an L for the Packers, but it’s misleading in that Rodgers threw 2 INT’s inside the Lions’ 5-yard line in the first half of the game. Instead of scoring 6, 10 or 14 points, the Packers scored 0 and surrendered the ball.
Goff home/road splits are going to be a difference as this game is being played in Lambeau:
23 TD’s, 3 INT’s at home
6 TD’s, 4 INT’s on road – threw 3 TD’s on road vs CAR 2 wks ago
In summary, give us Packers -4.5. This is Aaron Rodgers, at home in Lambeau, 4-0 SU / ATS in L4 against a bottom-3 secondary in the league facing off against Jared Goff in the cold. Detroit may hang for spots in this game, but if Rodgers takes care of the ball and converts RZ trips into TD’s instead of INT’s, GB should deliver a knockout punch and beat the Lions at home to go to the playoffs.