Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized
AROUND THE LEAGUE
NET YPP RANKINGS: CURRENT VS WK 4
Seattle, Cincy and the NY Jets are the teams surging the most in the Net YPP rankings heading into Week 8 relative to their rankings following Week 4.
Cincy has righted the ship on offense, ranking 4th in offensive efficiency, 3rd in 3rd down conversion rate, 3rd in passing yards per game and 5th in explosive passing plays. Jamar Chase is a huge loss for the next 4-6 weeks.
Seattle is playing complementary football on the offensive side of the ball, establishing the run early and often. The Seahawks rank 3rd in the league in yards per play, 4th in 3rd down conversion rate, 1st in yards per carry and 5th in explosive rushing plays. Seattle lost Rashaad Penny to a season-ending injury, but Kenneth Walker has played incredibly well in the RB1 role, rushing for 352 yards and 6.8 yards per carry over the last three weeks.
The Jets are still searching for balance on the offensive side of the ball and will have to replace Breece Hall’s production after losing him to a season-ending injury in Week 7, but their defense ranks 7th in the league in yards per play allowed and yards per attempt, 9th in explosive passing plays allowed and 3rd in yards per carry.
OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RANKINGS THROUGH WEEK 7
Above are our offensive efficiency ratings heading into Week 8 across the league. A lot to digest and little context in just one table, so let’s break it down by division to understand who’s been steady in their ranking, who’s trending up and who is in free fall.
The Eagles have been cruising near the top of the league’s rankings in offensive efficiency all season, primarily due to Jalen Hurts’ decision making in the passing game (4th in yards per attempt), the efficacy of the running game (4th in rushing yards per game) and ball security (1st in turnovers per game).
Washington started the season strong in the first two weeks on the offensive side of the ball, but the Commanders have been in a free fall since losing to the Lions 36-27 in Week 2. Heading into Week 8, they rank 27th in offensive efficiency, 31st in yards per play, 24th in yards per carry, 29th in percentage of drives to reach the red zone, 28th in sacks allowed and 31st in QB hits allowed.
Minnesota has posted at least 24 points in every game since their 24-7 dismantling at the hands of the Eagles on MNF on Week 2. Justin Jefferson is the X-factor on this offense and ranks 3rd in the league in receiving yards per game heading into a Week 8 matchup with a Cardinals defense that ranks 25th in the league in passing yards allowed and 29th in explosive passing plays allowed.
Not surprisingly, Kansas City and Buffalo have been the frontrunners by offensive efficiency in the AFC all season.
New England’s offensive efficiency has been in free fall since Week 1. They may have a QB controversy on their hands after a subpar performance on offense on MNF at home against the Bears.
Houston has had a sneaky climb into the upper half of the league in offensive efficiency over the last 4 weeks. They do not turn the ball over often (5th in turnovers per game), do not shoot themselves in the foot with penalties (2nd in the league in offensive penalty yardage) and protect the QB (10th in total sacks allowed).
Indy hasn’t had a steady pulse on offense all season. It’s difficult to imagine Sam Ehlinger is the answer relieving Matt Ryan the rest of the way.
LEADERS AND LAGGARDS BY OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY SINCE WEEK 3
Cincy has found its footing on offense after a subpar start to the season. The Saints, Raiders, Falcons and Texans have all ascended from below average offenses into the league’s upper half.
Miami has fallen off a cliff in offensive efficiency as they’ve shuffled QB’s in and out of the starting lineup over the last month. Some stability at the quarterback position should allow them to climb back into the top 10.
Though Kenny Pickett didn’t look awful on SNF in Miami, Pittsburgh lacks an offensive identity with a weak running game and overall offensive strategy. They rank 32nd in the league in yards per play, 29th in yards per attempt, 27th in rushing yards per game, 26th in percentage of drives to reach the red zone and 27th in plays per drive. Mike Tomlin said he wasn’t eager to make a change this week ahead of a matchup with the Eagles, but with the Steelers on a bye after this week, a change may come then.
DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS THROUGH WEEK 7
Dallas ranks in the league’s top 10 in nearly every defensive metric and is unsurprisingly our highest rated defense through seven weeks. They are 2nd in yards per play allowed, 8th in 3rd down conversion rate, 3rd in yards per attempt, 5th in red zone percentage, 1st in percentage of opponent’s drives to reach the red zone, 1st in sacks, 1st in QB hits and 4th in turnovers forced per game. They have a juicy matchup this week with Chicago’s 32nd ranked pass protection unit.
The Cowboys, Colts, Patriots and Titans are the league’s most surging defenses over the last month of the season. Jacksonville, Tampa and New Orleans have plunged in our ratings after starting the season looking like elite units.
RED ZONE DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY
Weekly reminder that teams that prevent their opponents from entering the red zone do not allow a lot of points. The bottom 8 teams in the league by red zone trips allowed (Cincy, Green Bay, Buffalo, Tampa Bay, Denver, Minnesota, Dallas, LA Rams) are a combined 39-14 (74%) to the UNDER this season.
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MATCHUP ANALYSIS
MATCHUPS BY NET YPP RANKINGS
The Eagles have the most significant edge of any matchup this weekend, facing the 31st ranked Steelers by net yards per play.
Seattle hosts the 6-1 NY Giants at home this week. The Giants are well traveled over the last month – they sailed to London to face the Packers, trekked back to New York to host the Ravens and flew down to Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars. Though they are 3-0, this is a difficult spot for a cross-country trip to face the Seahawks, who rank 10th in the league in Net YPP and are 3-1 ATS and SU in the last four weeks.
San Fran may be the toughest 3-4 team in the league, ranking 3rd in the league in Net YPP and facing the 23rd ranked LA Rams on the road in a game that may feel like a home game for the 49ers, who have a well-traveled fan base. The 49ers outgained the Rams 6.7 – 3.5 on a yards per play basis in their Week 4 matchup in which they sacked Matt Stafford 7 times.
OFFENSIVE LINE MATCHUP ANALYSIS
Justin Fields has the worst possible matchup you could possibly schedule against the Cowboys’ top ranked pass rush this week. The Bears have allowed 27 sacks in 7 games, while the Cowboys have amassed 29 so far this season. Fields has rushed or scrambled at least 7 times in every game this season. The Bears have implemented designed QB runs into their offense over the last 3-4 weeks and will likely continue to do so against Dallas’ high-powered pass rush on Sunday. In the last two weeks, Fields has rushed 26 times for 160 yards (6.5 ypc).
We touched on it earlier, but Matt Stafford is in for another tough day in the pocket against the 49ers’ 2nd ranked pass rush. It does not help that OT Joe Noteboom went on IR before the bye – the Rams have had a revolving door on the offensive line all season and allowed Stafford to be sacked 7 times in Week 4.
Neither Taylor Heinicke nor Sam Ehlinger will have alot of time in the pocket behind bottom 3 OL’s by pass protection facing top 10 pass rushing units.
RED ZONE MATCHUP ANALYSIS
Philly should have plenty of opportunities to post points early and often against Pittsburgh off the bye. They rank 6th in the league in red zone trips, facing a defense that ranks 28th in the league in red zone trips allowed.
Chicago is going to face tough sledding against Dallas’ top ranked pass rush, as we mentioned earlier in the newsletter. They don’t get to the red zone often, ranking 23rd in red zone trips, and are going to have a difficult time doing so against Dallas’ 2nd ranked defense by red zone trips allowed. When they do reach the red zone, the Bears rank 26th in red zone conversion rate, facing Dallas’ 5th ranked red zone defense.
Houston ranks dead last in the league in red zone trips on offense, facing the Titans’ 9th ranked defense by red zone trips allowed. The Texans also rank 30th in the league in explosive passing plays and 29th in explosive running plays, facing a Titans’ defense that ranks 12th in explosive passing plays allowed and 9th in explosive running plays allowed. It may be tough sledding for Houston at home on Sunday against the Titans.
QB MATCHUPS
Jalen Hurts has an excellent matchup against Pittsburgh’s secondary this weekend.
The Steelers held Brady and Tua near their season averages in their last two games, but Josh Allen (330 avg. pass YPG) and Zach Wilson (173 avg. pass YPG) significantly outperformed their season averages in Weeks 5 and 6, passing for 424 yards and 252 yards respectively.
RB MATCHUPS
Derrick Henry (Over 99.5 Rush Yds, Draftkings) has the most favorable matchup of any running back this week and perhaps of any running back for the season. He should have no issue clearing 100 yds for the below reasons.
Henry ranks 4th in the league in rushing yards per game, facing the league’s worst rushing defense that allows 166 yards per game.
Henry ranks 7th in the league in explosive running plays, facing the league’s worst defense by explosive rushing plays allowed.
Henry ranks 3rd in the league in percentage of his team’s carries, getting the ball on 77% of the times that the Titans call a running play. The Titans rank 5th in the league in rushing play percentage, rushing the ball 52% of times from scrimmage.
In his last three matchups with the Texans, Henry has done the following:
Dec-19: 32 carries, 211 yds, 3 TD’s
Oct-20: 22 carries, 212 yds, 2 TD’s
Jan-21: 34 carries, 250 yds, 2 TD’s
WR MATCHUPS
Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have excellent matchups against Detroit’s suspect secondary this weekend. This duo has lit up the NFL over their first 7 games. Hill and Waddle account for 52% of Miami’s targets and 67% of their total receiving yards in one of the most explosive passing offenses in the league that ranks 4th in passing yards per game, 3rd in yards per attempt and 2nd in explosive passing plays.
Hill ranks 1st in the league in receptions, receiving yards per game and explosive receptions, facing a Detroit defense that ranks 22nd in receiving yards allowed and 24th in explosive passing plays allowed.
Waddle ranks 5th in receiving yards per game and 8th in explosive receptions.
This offense has a great matchup against a Detroit defense that ranks 31st in yards per attempt allowed, 24th in explosive passing plays allowed, 31st in 3rd down conversion rate and 30th in sacks per game. Without a strong pass rush, Tua should have plenty of time to sit in the pocket and dissect this defense. In the last three games, opposing receivers have matched or outperformed their season averages:
DK Metcalf: 149 yds (avg. 67 receiving YPG)
Tyler Locket: 91 yds (avg. 67 receiving YPG)
Jakobi Meyers: 111 yds (avg. 71 receiving YPG)
Hunter Henry: 54 yds (avg. 24 receiving YPG)
Ceedee Lamb: 70 yds (avg. 68 receiving YPG)
Noah Brown: 50 yds (avg. 48 receiving YPG)
*Dallas led this game wire to wire and ran the ball 32 times