Week 7 Preview – Sporting Intelligence

Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized

AROUND THE LEAGUE

NET YPP RANKINGS: CURRENT VS. WEEK 4

  • Tennessee is perhaps the most fradulent 3-2 team in the league through 6 weeks, ranking dead last in the league in net yards per play. There is a divergence between the public perception of the Titans and what the numbers dictate – the Titans have been outgained by their opponent in each of their first 5 games.

  • Denver has been atrocious in the several primetime games they’ve played this year, but rank 4th in the league in net yards per play, largely due to their defense, which ranks 2nd in the league in yards per play allowed.

Highest Climbers:

  • Seahawks: Seattle has made the largest jump of any team in the NFL in Net YPP since Week 3, primarily due to their ability to move the ball effectively on offense. They rank 3rd in the league in yards per play, 3rd in 3rd down conversion rate, 5th in yards per attempt, 3rd in yards per carry and 7th in explosive rushing plays. Their defense has been a lag on their rating, but if Geno Smith continues to play at a high level, the Seahawks have shown an ability to play complementary football in 2022.

  • NY Jets: The Jets have made a similar climb in the net YPP rankings since Week 3. Their defense is surging and playing a physical brand of football in Robert Saleh’s second year at the helm. The Jets rank 7th in yards per play allowed, 10th in yards per attempt, 4th in opponent yards per carry and 3rd in QB hits. They are winners of two straight after holding the Dolphins’ and Packers’ potent offenses to just 27 points in total the last two weeks. Obviously Teddy Bridgewater was knocked out of the Week 5 matchup early, but the Jets held the Packers to just 278 yards of total offense, sacked Rodgers 4 times and held Green Bay to 4-16 on 3rd down.

Biggest Laggards:

  • Lions: Detroit has plummeted in rankings since Week 3 due to their bottom 3 defense that ranks 32nd in yards per play allowed, 32nd in 3rd down conversion rate, 29th in yards per attempt, 32nd in rushing yards allowed and 32nd in sacks. They are an OVER team until further notice due to the divergence between their offensive and defensive efficiencies.

  • Panthers: The wheels are off the tracks in Carolina with Matt Rhule’s firing and the ongoing firesale of their remaining assets on the roster. Carolina has 0 offensive identity, ranking 30th in yards per play, 32nd in 3rd down conversion rate, 29th in passing yards per game, 30th in red zone conversion rate and 25th in pass protection.


  • The two Super Bowl contestants in 2021 ranked in the league’s top 4 heading into Week 7 of the 2021 season.

  • The league’s top 12 teams by Net YPP looks like a grouping of playoff contenders with a few newcomers in the Jaguars and Jets. Can Russ get Denver’s offensive issues resolved down the stretch?


EFFICIENCY RANKINGS THROUGH WEEK 7

  • The Eagles are the only team in the NFC with top 10 ratings in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

  • Atlanta has outperformed preseason expectations moreso than perhaps any other team in the league through the first 6 weeks of the season.

  • Green Bay is still working to find its offensive identity without Davante Adams, but their defense is performing at a high level.

  • The Rams’ defensive starpower continues to pay dividends, but they have significant structural issues on the offensive line and miss OBJ badly.

  • Buffalo continues to demonstrate itself as the most balanced and efficient roster in the league after a 24-20 win on the road over KC.

  • Despite Tennesee’s poor net YPP ranking, they are one of 4 teams in the AFC with a top 10 ranking in both offensive and defensive efficiency.

  • Baltimore and Cincinnati are going to find themselves in a battle for the AFC North crown as the stretch run approaches. Baltimore is struggling to finish games, while Cincy’s offensive line is gelling and giving Burrow time to see the field from the pocket after a poor start to the year.

  • The Chiefs once again find themselves with a highly efficient offense and a defense that struggles to play complementary football. KC has been surprisingly stout against the run (4th in rushing yards allowed), but that could be a function of opponents relying on the pass to keep pace with Mahomes, as the Chiefs rank 28th in passing yards allowed and 29th in explosive passing plays allowed.


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MOST EFFICIENT OFFENSES SINCE 2015 THROUGH WEEK 6

  • The Chiefs and Bills rank as two of the most efficient offenses in the league by or efficiency rating through Week 6 over the last eight seasons.

PASSING AND RUSHING RANKS BY DIVISION

  • The Giants continue to struggle to move the ball through the air and defend the run. Saquon is the engine of their offense in the ground game, while their secondary has been effective in defending the pass.

  • The Vikings look like a contender in the NFC, but their passing defense could be their Achilles heel down the stretch heading into their bye.

  • San Fran’s defense continues to perform at an elite level in both facets of the game, but time will tell how cluster injuries in their secondary affect their defensive integrity against the pass.

  • Tampa Bay has demonstrated 0 capability to run the ball.

  • Atlanta’s offense is predicated on running the football in Arthur Smith’s scheme, but their inability to defend the pass is a major red flag against high-flying passing offenses. The Falcons have a tough test against the surging Bengals on the road this week.

  • Despite a revolving door at quarterback the last three weeks, Miami ranks 2nd in the league in passing, fueled by the speed of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

  • The Jets look like a well-rounded team across each facet on either side of the ball, and Breece Hall looks like a legitimate playmaker at RB. The Jets outrushed the Packers 179-60 in Week 6.

  • Cincinatti needs to get their running game going to force defenses to respect the run and open up passing lanes for Burrow and his WR’s.

  • The Dolphins, Ravens, Steelers, Chiefs and Titans are among the worst passing defenses in the league.

Red zone efficiency can be a misleading metric, as it is expressed as a percentage and does not account for the volume of trips to the red zone. Drives that turn into red zone trips produce points more often than drives that do not pass through it.

  • The Chiefs continue to lead the league in red zone trips and are converting trips into TD’s at a high rate – 3rd in the league.

  • The Chargers are tied with Philly in total red zone trips, but rank 23rd in the league in red zone efficiency once they arrive.

  • Tennesse ranks is tied for 30th in the league in red zone trips, but leads the league in red zone efficiency once they get inside their opponent’s 20-yard line.

  • Houston has a tough time moving the ball between the 20’s and has sniffed its opponent’s red zone just 10 times in 5 games.

  • We will continue to pound the pavement regarding the correlation between a team’s ability to keep its opponents out of the red zone and Unders. The league’s top 8 defenses by red zone trips allowed are a combined 33-15 (69%) to the Under through 6 weeks.


MATCHUP ANALYSIS

MATCHUPS BY NET YPP RANKINGS

  • Despite the Giants’ 5-1 record, books think that the Jaguars are the better team at home this week. The line opened at Jags -3 and has not moved.

  • Baltimore has struggled to close games, but is the superior roster against Cleveland this weekend.

  • Miami has a significant edge at home against a Steelers’ team off an emotional win at home over Brady and the Bucs.

RED ZONE MATCHUP ANALYSIS

  • The Chargers have a favorable matchup with Seattle’s defense this week, ranking 2nd in the league in red zone trips. They’ll have plenty of opportunities to put points on the board if they can improve their efficiency inside Seattle’s 20-yard line on Sunday.

  • Baltimore has a similarly favorable matchup with Cleveland’s defense at home this weekend, as the Browns rank 29th in the league in red zone trips allowed. The Ravens rank 11th in the league in efficiency once they arrive inside the 20-yard line.

  • Washington and Carolina are going to have trouble moving the ball into the red zone against the Packers and Bucs, respectively. Should Carolina get to the red zone, they rank 30th in the league in efficiency. Green Bay ranks 10th in the league in red zone efficiency once opponent’s breach their 20-yard line.

OFFENSIVE LINE MATCHUP ANALYSIS

  • Tom Brady should have plenty of time to sit in the pocket and move the ball through the air against Carolina’s 28th ranked pass rush.

  • Dak also returns with an excellent matchup against Detroit’s 32nd ranked pass rush. Detroit ranks 24th in the league in passing yards allowed, 29th in yards per attempt and 25th in explosive passing plays allowed.

  • Justin Fields is not going to have a comfortable night in the pocket in Monday Night Football against a Pats’ DL that ranks 7th in the league in sacks and 9th in turnovers forced per game.

  • Brady will have plenty of time to throw, while Carolina’s starter (likely Darnold?) is going to face steady pressure all day behind an offensive line that ranks 25th in sacks allowed.

  • The Jets will look to build on their 4-sack performance against the Packers when they face the Broncos on Sunday. The Broncos rank 27th in the league in sacks allowed and 25th in QB hits allowed, and Russ is now dealing with a hamstring injury.

1ST HALF POINT DIFFERENTIAL MATCHUP ANALYSIS

  • New England has led by at least 3 points at half in four of its last 5 games. The Bears have trailed at halftime in every game this season.


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QB MATCHUPS

  • Joe Burrow has one of the best matchups of the weekend against the Falcons’ pass defense that ranks 26th in the league in passing TD’s allowed, 31st in the league in passing yards per game allowed and 31st in explosive passing plays allowed. Burrow has outperformed his season average of 269 yards in four of six games this season, while the Falcons have allowed opposing passers to outperform season averages in each of the last four weeks:

    • 296 to Jimmy G (averages 231 pass YPG)

    • 351 to Brady (averages 275 pass YPG)

    • 234 to Brissett (averages 221 pass YPG)

    • 325 to Geno (averages 250 pass YPG)

  • Matt Ryan has a great matchup with the Titans’ 32nd ranked passing defense as he continues to settle into the Indy offensive scheme. He’s passed for at least 350 yards in two of the last three games, including 356 against Tennessee in Week 4 (27-37 passing, 356 yds, 9.6 yards per attempt).

WR MATCHUPS

  • Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have a juicy matchup with Pittsburgh’s secondary in Week 7. Hill and Waddle accounted for 306 yards receiving against Minnesota last week and accounted for 75% of the Dolphins’ offensive output in the passing game. Tyreek Hill leads the league in explosive catches (> 10 yds) with 29 and will face a Steelers’ defense that ranks 30th in explosive passing plays allowed.

Explore our dynamic matchup analysis tools that provide a global view of matchups at every level of every game across the league.

RUSHING MATCHUPS

  • Josh Jacobs (O/U 81.5 rush yds) has the best matchup in the running game this weekend against a Texans’ defense that ranks 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed and 28th in explosive rush plays allowed. Jacobs ranks 3rd in the league rushing yards per game, 7th in explosive rushing plays and leads the league in share of his team’s carries with over 79% of the Raiders’ touches in the run game. In the last two weeks, Jacobs rushed for 144 yards against Denver’s 12th ranked rushing defense and 154 yards against Kansas City’s 4th ranked rushing defense. The Texans have been shredded on multiple occasions thus far in 2022:

    • Johnathan Taylor rushed for 161 yards on 31 carries

    • The Javonte Williams / Melvin Gordon RB plateau combined for 122 yards on 25 total carries

    • Khalil Herbert rushed for 157 yards on just 20 carries

  • Zeke and Tony Pollard have a great matchup against Detroit’s 32nd ranked rushing defense, but they’re sharing carries relatively evenly to predict a big day from one player or the other.


Explore our dynamic matchup analysis tools that provide a global view of matchups at every level of every game across the league.

Sign up below for a free log-in to browse our game-by-game matchup analysis dashboards and to view our model picks that have been backtested over the previous 7 seasons. Model picks are 8-4 (67%) through Week 6 and historically have hit at a 63% clip in Weeks 5-16 since 2015.

MODEL PREDICTIONS

Our models are up and running now that Week 5 has passed. In their first two weeks of deployment, model plays are 8-4 (67%) in 2022. Plays for Week 7 are below:

  • Bengals / Falcons O47.5

    • We expect this game to be a high-scoring affair with two offenses ranked in the top 10 in our offensive efficiency metric (Cincy: 5, Atlanta: 9).

    • Joe Burrow (7th in passing yards per game) should have a great opportunity to hit his stride against an Atlanta secondary that struggles to defend the pass, ranking 31st in passing yards allowed per game and explosive passing plays allowed.

    • Cincy excels in moving the chains on 3rd down (3rd in league) while Atlanta ranks 31st in the league in 3rd down conversion on defense.

    • Cincy has shown that it has a strong defense, but Atlanta succeeds in moving the chains on 3rd down (5th in league) and running the ball (3rd in rushing yards per game; 6th in rushes over 10 yards). Mariota has the legs to extend plays, while Cincy struggles to apply pressure to opposing passers (28th in sacks).

  • Patriots / Bears U40

    • Bellichick loves to make his opponents play left-handed. In this matchup, that will involve forcing Justin Fields to beat them through the air. The Bears rank 32nd in the league in passing yards per game, while the Patriots rank 8th in the league in yards per attempt allowed. Fields is going to have a tough time moving the chains and sustaining offense if he is forced to be the catalyst.

    • New England ranks 7th in the league in sacks and should tee off on a Chicago OL that ranks 31st in the league in sacks allowed.

    • Chicago’s strength is their passing defense (2nd in the league in passing yards allowed), while they struggle mightily to defend the run (29th in rushing yards allowed, 32nd in explosive runs). We expect New England to target Chicago’s lackluster running defense with Stevenson and Damien Harris, which should keep the clock moving when the Patriots have the ball.

  • Broncos / Jets U38.5

    • This matchup will feature the 28th ranked (Jets) and 32nd ranked (Broncos) offenses by our efficiency metrics. Both teams struggle heavily in moving the chains on 3rd down and advancing the ball into the opponent’s red zone.

    • Denver has flashed as one of the league’s top 5 defenses, while the Jets’ defense is surging under Robert Saleh and should have enough ammo to create pressure on Russell Wilson behind a Broncos OL that ranks 27th in sacks allowed. Russ has been a limited participant this week with a hamstring injury that has a chance to limit his mobility in this game.

    • We see this as a defensive slugfest in a matchup of offenses that will struggle to muster up many sustained offensive drives.