Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Net Yards Per Play Differential Rankings
New England has climbed into the league’s top 10 after thrashing the Lions at home last week.
Denver is 2-3 and embarassed themselves in front of the entire country on TNF in Week 5, but they rank in the league’s top 5 in yards per play differential. If Russ can ever get the offense moving the ball effectively and into the end zone, the Broncos’ have an elite defense that can take them into the playoff race.
Tennessee enters Week 6 on a bye leading the AFC South standings, but ranks dead last in the league in in net YPP.
Cleveland ranks highly across the board in offensive metrics, but their defense has been a liability thus far in the season. Both Clowney and Myles Garrett DNP on Thursday ahead of their matchup with the Patriots.
The Vikings are 4-1, but their net YPP ranking of 24 tells a different story. Minnesota has trailed in the last 5 minutes of each of their last three games but has won all three.
The Jaguars are off an inexcusable loss to the Texans, but they outgained Houston 422-248 in the yardage department. Still plenty of reasons to be bullish on Jacksonville as the season continues despite the bad division loss at home.
Offensive Efficiency Ratings through Week 5
As we predicted last week, San Fran’s offensive rating is going to surge as the offense re-calibrates with Jimmy G under center. The 49ers jumped from 22nd to 13th in the league after beating down on the Panthers on the road and winning the YPP battle 6.5 – 4.7.
Despite traveling to London without two of their top WR’s in Kenny Gollday and Kadarius Toney, the Giants won outright against the Packers in London. They finished with 338 yards of total offense and went 6-11 on 3rd down, scoring 17 unanswered points in the 2nd half sparked by Saquon Barkley.
Indy’s offense is lost with Matt Ryan under center. The Colts cannot protect Ryan, and Ryan consequently cannot hold onto the ball. He has fumbled 9 times and thrown 6 INT’s in his first 5 starts with the Colts.
Denver’s offense is broken. They finished 2-15 on 3rd down and 0-4 in the red zone. Russ made the mistake of throwing at the WR covered by HOF CB Stephon Gilmore in two of the game’s most critical spots.
Defensive Efficiency Ratings through Week 5
Cincy’s defense has been fantastic to start the season. There’s a case to make for the Bengals to return to form if the offense can get right and run some more sophisticated, nuanced schemes that involve something other than throwing deep to Jamar Chase any time he gets single coverage.
Dallas and Philly’s top defenses will face off at the Linc on Sunday Night Football in one of the most entertaining matchups of the weekend.
Kansas City’s defense finds itself in familiar territory near the bottom of the league after allowing 378 yards and 29 points against the Raiders on MNF. Josh Jacobs ran over the Chiefs for 154 yards on just 21 carries.
Miami, Seattle and Detroit have firmly staked their claim as three of the league’s worst defenses.
The Steelers’ defense is fading without TJ Watt to create pressure on opposing quarterbacks.
Minnesota’s defense and more specifically their secondary is the Achilles heel that has a chance to hold them back from a deep postseason run.
Passing & Rushing Ranks by NFC Division
The Eagles have demonstrated themselves as perhaps the NFC’s most complete roster across each facet of offensive and defensive production.
The Giants and Bears are both excelling in running the ball and defending the pass, but are struggling to pass the ball and defend the run.
San Fran looks to have the NFC’s most balanced defense, but just lost CB Emmanuel Moseley to a season-ending injury. Nick Bosa and Jimmie Ward DNP on Thursday ahead of the 49ers’ matchup with the Falcons.
NFC Offensive Efficiency Rankings by Division Through Week 5
Philly and Detroit have consistently demonstrated themselves as two of the NFC’s most efficient offenses from the jump this season.
Green Bay is finding its footing on offense as Aaron Rodgers continues to adjust to his new WR corps.
The Rams’ offensive efficiency has faded week over week behind an offensive line that is injured and undermanned, struggling to protect Matt Stafford or create any sort of running game.
San Fran’s offense is surging as Jimmy G settles back into the helm. Tampa Bay’s offense is climbing in the rankings as Brady’s WRs get healthy.
The Carson Wentz experience is going poorly in Washington as he continues to get sacked and turn the ball over.
NFC Defensive Efficiency Rankings by Division Through Week 5
Detroit’s defense has showed no pulse as one of the league’s worst defenses since the season kicked off a month ago.
Seattle’s defense has allowed opponents to score an average of 35 points per game over the last 4 weeks.
Passing & Rushing Ranks by AFC Division
Baltimore and Pittsburgh feature two of the league’s worst secondaries against the pass. Pittsburgh has a tough matchup with the Bucs’ 3rd ranked passing offense this weekend, and Minkah Fitzpatrick, Cameron Sutton, Ahkello Witherspoon all DNP on Thursday, while Levi Wallace was limited.
Cleveland leads the league in running the football but struggles to defend the run on the defensive side of the ball.
AFC Offensive Efficiency Rankings by Division Through Week 5
Pittsburgh’s offensive production has fallen off a cliff the last two weeks as they turned the reigns over to Kenny Pickett. The rest of the AFC North features highly efficient offenses as the Bengals continue to work to establish the run to open up passing lanes for Joe burrow.
The AFC South features some of the league’s most inefficient offenses, none of which are trending in the right direction after the first month of the season.
Russ has Broncos country riding steady at the bottom of the league in offensive efficiency due to an inability to convert red zone trips into TD’s.
AFC Defensive Efficiency Rankings by Division Through Week 5
While the Chiefs, Raiders and Chargers continue to produce efficiently on the offensive side of the ball, their defenses are struggling to return the favor. Denver’s defense is doing the heavy lifting in spite of Mr. Unlimited.
Jacksonville’s defense is generating a healthy pass rush and forcing turnovers. Indy’s defense could return to form if they ever get Shaquille Leonard back onto the field.
Pittsburgh’s defense has taken a nose dive since they lost TJ Watt, while Cleveland continues to struggle to defend on a weekly basis in both facets of the game. Their DT’s rank near the bottom of the league in run defense and have created major issues up the middle of that unit.
The Chiefs continue to move the ball into their opponent’s red zone and convert those trips into TD’s.
Tennessee doesn’t get to the red zone at an above average clip, but they punch the ball into the end zone efficiently when they do get inside their opponent’s 20-yard line.
Philly excels in moving the ball into the red zone, while the rest of the NFC East lags most of the league in moving the ball into their opponent’s 20-yard line.
The league’s top 4 defenses by red zone trips allowed (Cowboys, 49ers, Rams and Broncos) are a combined 16-4 to the under, largely due to their defense’s ability to keep opponent’s out of the red zone.
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The “Middle 8,” coined by Mike Lombardi, is a relatively indicative barometer of a team’s ability to perform from a situtional and X’s and O’s standpoint in the final 4 minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half. The Eagles, 49ers, Chiefs, Buccaneers and Patriots are all considered legitimate Super Bowl contenders, while no team in the bottom 10 of the league rankings can be considered a threat to go deep in the postseason with the exception of the Packers.
MATCHUP ANALYSIS
The Bucs are a prime teaser candidate to take -9 / -8.5 down to -3 / -2.5 with a clear advantage in net YPP.
The Patriots are a +2.5 underdog on the road against the Browns and should be another prime teaser candidate up to +8.5 with a significant advantage in the running game.
San Fran is suddenly banged up on defense but has a significant edge over Atlanta. Injuries to Nick Bosa and Jimmie Ward should be monitored closely.
The Chargers’ pass rush will have their hands full against Denver on MNF. They lost 2nd year All-Pro Rashawn Slater to a bicep injury at an inopportune time against a Broncos’ DL that sacked Matt Ryan 6 times in Week 5.
Kyler Murray and Geno Smith should both have plenty of time in the pocket against bottom 10 pass rushes on the opposite side of the ball.
If Nick Bosa can go, he should have an opportunity to make a significant impact in the pass rush against Atlanta’s lackluster pass protection.
The Ravens’ pass rush will be getting a significant boost this week or next with the returns of Tyus Bowser and David Ojabo. If either guy can go this week against NYG, the Ravens should have a disruptive pass rush against the Giants’ 25th rated pass protection unit.
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The team that wins the turnover battle often wins the game. Jacksonville and Cincy have both excelled in creating turnovers with matchups against offenses that have rank near the bottom of the league in giveaways.
Kenny Pickett is going to have a tough time getting the ball into Tampa Bay’s red zone, which is going to create issues when it comes to scoring points and keeping pace with Brady and the Bucs’ offense.
The 49ers have led by 20, 4, 8 and 14 points in each of their last four games, while the Falcons rank 26th in the league in 1H point differential.
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Josh Allen has an excellent matchup with the Chiefs secondary in an ultimate revenge spot on the road in KC this weekend. We discussed his matchup in depth on our podcast on the Steady Picks platform in depth this week and recommend Josh Allen O2.5 Passing TD’s.
Allen ranks 2nd in the league in passing TD’s, facing a Chiefs secondary that has allowed the most passing touchdowns through Week 5.
Allen leads the league in passing yards per game, facing the 27th ranked passing defense.
The Bills get to the red zone at the 10th highest rate in the league. The Chiefs defense allows opponents’ offense to convert RZ trips into TD’s at a staggering 81.2% of the time (31st in the league).
Tom Brady has a similarly fantastic matchup against a Steelers’ defense that ranks 30th in the league in passing yards allowed per game. Brady has thrown for 385 and 351 yards the last two weeks with Chris Godwin back in the mix and is facing a Steelers’ secondary that is very banged up.
Rhamondre Stevenson has the best rushing matchup of the weekend for a multitude of reasons. The Patriots typically have a RB by committee approach, but Damien Harris went down last week with a hamstring injury and looks like he’s going to miss multiple weeks. Stevenson went for 161 yards on 25 carries against a Lions’ defense that ranks 30th in the league in rushing yards allowed. As the Pats’ feature back this week, Stevenson will face a Browns’ defense with significant weaknesses in the middle of their front 7 that ranks 28th in the league in rushing yards allowed and let Austin Ekeler go for 173 yards on just 16 carries last week. We’ll be waiting for Stevenson’s prop to be released and will love his OVER RUSHING YARDS anywhere in the high 60’s to low 70’s.
Justin Jefferson, Marquise Brown and Stefon Diggs all have excellent matchups with opposing secondaries that allow explosive plays and yards after the catch in bunches.
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BUCS -3 / JAGS +8 TEASER
A quick look at our matchup analysis dashboards reveals a heavy mismatch between the Bucs and Steelers on either side of the ball. Brady has the Bucs ranked 3rd in the league in passing yards per game and 2nd in the league in explosive passing plays (over 10 yds), facing off against a Steelers defense that ranks 30th in passing yards allowed and 31st in explosive passing plays allowed.
The Steelers struggle to defend the run and stop opponents on 3rd down, while their pass rush has fallen off a cliff without TJ Watt. They’ll struggle to get to Brady against an OL that ranks 4th in the league in pass protection and QB hits allowed.
In a teaser, we have Brady -3 against Kenny Pickett in his second career start against a defense that flashes in the league’s top 8 in a majority of key metrics.
The Colts are anemic on offense and have shown no ability to move the ball effectively or build any sort of lead in any game thus far this season.
The Jags rank 6th in the league in creating turnovers, while the Colts rank 31st in the league in giveaways. Matt Ryan has fumbled 9 times and thrown 6 INT’s through 5 weeks.
In Week 2, the Jags sacked Ryan 5 times and forced 3 INT’s in a 24-0 shutout at home.
The Jags struggled the last two weeks in the rain against Philly and in an inexcusable loss to the Texans, but we like them to bounce back in this spot against the Colts on the road against a bad, turnover-prone Indy offense. We’ll take the Jags from +2 to +8 paired with the Bucs -3 in a 6-point teaser.