Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized
AROUND THE NFL
NET YPP RANKINGS – CURRENT VS WK 8
Miami has surged in their Net YPP output over the last month and a half. Miami has outgained each of its opponents over the L5 weeks on a YPP basis, though the Dolphins have faced a subpar slate of defenses in the span. Tua was not well protected in the pocket against SF’s top 5 pass rush and threw 2 costly INT’s that cost them the game.
Detroit – 32nd in defensive efficiency
Chicago – 31st in defensive efficiency
Cleveland – 27th in defensive efficiency
Houston – 21st in defensive efficiency
San Fran – 11th in defensive efficiency.
Similarly, the Bengals have rounded into form in the middle part of the season and are off their biggest win of the season, at home vs Kansas City. They’ve secured impressive wins against two strong AFC opponents in the L2 weeks with the Browns up next at home. Joe Burrow is 0-4 in his career against the Browns, who needed four defensive touchdowns to get past the Texans on Sunday.
Minnesota continues to win close games while also plumetting in the Net YPP ranks. Though the public may be surprised that the Vikings are a +2.5 / +3-point underdog on the road against Detroit this weekend, the underlying numbers support it. Minnesota has a strong offense that ranks 8th in offensive efficiency, 9th in passing YPG and 5th in both explosive passing plays and 5th in red zone trips, but they have a significant weakness in the secondary (ranked 32nd in passing YPG, yards per attempt and explosive passing plays) that’s hurting their ability to win games by more margin. They’re up against a Detroit offense that ranks 4th in offensive efficiency, 10th in passing YPG and 8th in YPA in Week 14 that plays significantly better at home than it does on the road. Detroit averages nearly 32 points per game at home compared to just 18 on the road.
OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RANKINGS – 2022 SEASON VS WK 8
Chicago has leaned into utilizing Justin Fields’ mobility over the last month plus, and their offensive efficiency has improved significantly as a result.
The Giants find themselves on the cusp of the top 10 in our offensive efficiency ratings in spite of Daniel Jones and because of Saquon Barkley. Jones has certainly cleaned up his turnover issues from years past but has the Giants offense ranking 28th in passing YPG and 23rd in explosive passing plays. Barkley meanwhile is spearheading a Giants’ rushing attack that ranks 6th in rushing YPG and explosive run plays. They’ll face a tough test this weekend against a Philly pass defense that ranks 1st in passing YPG allowed and just welcomed DT Jordan Davis back to the lineup, holding Derrick Henry to 30 yds on 11 carries in Week 13.
Kenny Pickett will have a tough test against Baltimore’s defense this weekend, but he’s been improving steadily since the Steelers’ bye in early November. Pittsburgh is averaging +9 more points per game on offense than they scored in the previous 8 games before the bye, and Pickett hasn’t recorded a turnover in the same span.
DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RANKINGS – 2022 SEASON VS WK 8
San Francisco’s defense was bit by the injury bug in the month of October with injuries in the secondary and to Nick Bosa, but this unit has been elite over the last month. Since they allowed 44 points to Kansas City in their first game back from back-to-back games on the East Coast, the 49ers have held opponents to 11.4 points per game over the L5 weeks, including a shutout of the Saints at home in Week 12. They boast the league’s top rushing defense heading into their Week 14 matchup with Tampa Bay, who ranks 32nd in rushing YPG, YPC and explosive running plays.
Tampa’s defense was playing average football in the first half of the season, but has surged over the last month plus, holding opponents to just 17 points per game sine the start of November. Their matchup with the 49ers will feature two of the highest surging defenses over the last 6 weeks with excellent pass rushes (Bucs: 4th in sacks; 49ers: 6th in sacks).
AVG. SCORING OUTPUTS – 2022 SEASON VS L5 WEEKS
The average final scoring output in Ravens games in 2022 is 43, but over the L5 weeks, average output is just north of 31 points. The Ravens’ secondary was a significant concern early in the season, but as their DL has gotten healthier and applied more pressure on opposing quarterbacks, defensive production has increased. Baltimore ranks 3rd in the league in defensive efficiency and 5th in the league in total sacks. They’ve held 3 of their L4 opponents to 13 points or less. Lamar Jackson is doubtful, meaning it will likely be Tyler Huntley against Pittsburgh’s defense that’s a different animal with TJ Watt on the field.
Scoring is up significantly for the Bengals, Bears and Cowboys over the L5 weeks.
Cincy’s OL has gelled since a rough season opening start against Pittsburgh, and Jamar Chase’s return to the lineup should provide another boost.
The upswing in Chicago’s output is two-pronged: on offense, they’ve built a scheme that enhances Justin Fields’ mobility; on defense, they traded away two Pro Bowlers mid-season in Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn.
Dallas’ totals on the season are influenced by Dak’s absence – the Cowboys have scored at least 28 points in the L4 games with a matchup against a Houston defense that ranks 32nd in rushing YPG and explosive running plays, 25th in YPP allowed and 23rd in explosive passing plays in Week 14.
MATCHUP ANALYSIS
Russell Wilson will face a Chiefs pass rush that ranks 6th in the league in sacks behind an offensive line that ranks 29th in the league in pass protection. Over the last 6 weeks, Denver has faced three defenses with top 10 pass rushes: NYJ, TEN, BAL. Against those defenses, Denver has posted 9 PPG, 217 passing YPG and allowed 9 sacks.
Dallas’ top-rated pass rush should be slated for a field day against a Texans’ pass protection unit that ranks 26th in sacks allowed. Against Indy’s 32nd ranked OL by pass protection in Week 13, Dallas registered 3 sacks and forced 5 turnovers. Davis Mills is going to have a tough day in the pocket on Sunday, returning from the bench after two games. Houston ranks 24th in QB hits allowed, 26th in passing YPG, 32nd in 3rd down conversion rate and 31st in YPP.
Kenny Pickett is in for a tough matchup behind an OL that ranks 23rd in sacks allowed, facing a Ravens’ DL that ranks 5th in the league in sacks on the season. That said, Pickett has been efficient under pressure, ranking 3rd in completion percentage and 2nd in catchable pass rate in 2022.
Kyler Murray will face the Patriots’ 3rd ranked pass rush on MNF. His hamstring better be healthy against a New England defense that ranks 6th in YPP allowed, 6th in YPA allowed, 9th in explosive passing plays allowed and 10th in rushing yards per game.
It’ll be strength on strength in the Bucs-49ers matchup, with Tampa Bay’s 2nd ranked pass protection unit tasked with the 49ers’ 6th ranked pass rush. On the other side of the matchup, SF’s 5th ranked pass protection unit will be matched up with Tampa’s 4th ranked pass rush. Nick Bosa did not practice all week and is questionable, while Bucs T Tristan Wirfs is listed as doubtful.
Deshaun Watson should have some time in the pocket on Sunday behind an OL that ranks 10th in pass protection, taking on a Bengals’ pass rush that ranks 29th in sacks on the season. Jacoby Brissett threw for 278 yards on just 22 attempts in the Browns’ previous matchup with the Bengals in Week 8. Amari Cooper caught 5 balls for 131 yds and a TD.
The Bills have a rematch with the Jets on the docket on Sunday. They’ll surely be focused on neutralizing the Jets’ 6th ranked pass rush that sacked Josh Allen 5 times and forced 2 INT’s in their Week 9 win over the Bills. Allen was uncomfortable in the pocket all afternoon, throwing for just 205 yds on 18-34 (53% completion rate).
RED ZONE MATCHUP ANALYSIS
Kansas City leads the league in red zone trips by a relatively wide margin with 54 total trips through 12 games (Buffalo and Detroit are tied for 2nd in the league with 46). They’ll face a Denver defense that ranks 2nd in the league in red zone trips allowed and 1st in red zone conversion percentage when opponents do move the ball inside the 20-yard line. On the opposite side of the matchup, Denver’s ability to move the ball into their opponent’s red zone has been comically poor this season – they have logged just 24 trips in 12 games and rank 31st in the league in conversion rate when they do log a trip.
Minnesota ranks 5th in the league in red zone trips, matching up with a Detroit defense that ranks 24th in red zone trips allowed. Justin Jefferson ranks 5th in the league in red zone targets among WR’s – he should have an opportunity to log several more on Sunday in Detroit.
The Eagles rank 10th in the league in red zone trips and 2nd in red zone conversion rate, facing a Giants’ defense that ranks 29th in red zone trips allowed but 5th in red zone conversion rate. AJ Brown leads Philly in red zone targets with 14 and should have opportunities to hit paydirt off a 2 TD performance against the Titans in Week 13.
Tampa Bay has struggled to move the ball into the red zone consistently this season and will face a 49ers defense that ranks 1st in red zone trips allowed and 9th in red zone conversion rate.
RB MATCHUP ANALYSIS
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Dalvin Cook has an excellent matchup in Week 14 against a Detroit rushing defense that ranks 28th in rushing YPG allowed, 31st in YPC and 26th in explosive rushing plays allowed. Cook rushed for 96 yds on 17 carries in the Vikings’ Week 3 matchup with Detroit. He injured his shoulder late in the 4th quarter and did not log another carry thereafter. Cook ranks 4th in the league in share of his team’s carries, logging 69% of Minnesota’s rushing attempts.
Miles Sanders is slated for another strong day against a Giants’ rushing defense that ranks 26th in rushing YPG (142 / gm), 29th in YPC and 30th in explosive rushing plays allowed. Philly ranks 5th in the league in rushing YPG and 4th in explosive rushing plays. The Giants have been exposed by opposing rushing attacks consistently this season, and the Eagles should look to impose their will with their bread and butter:
Robinson / Gibson: 30 carries, 138 yds
Elliot / Pollard: 34 carries, 152 yds, 1 TD
Dameon Pierce: 17 carries, 94 yds (5.5 YPC)
Travis Etienne: 14 carries, 114 yds (8.1 YPC)
Jackson / K. Drake / JK Dobbins: 24 carries, 211 yds (8.8 YPC)
Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliot are also slated for field days against Houston’s historically rushing defense that ranks 32nd in rushing YPG allowed (170 / gm), 28th in YPC and 32nd in explosive rushing plays. Elliot has rushed for 4 TD’s in his last three starts and 7 in his last 5 starts. Pollard is averaging 16 touches and 95 rushing YPG over the L5 weeks with 6 rushing TD’s and 2 receiving TD’s.
UNDER OF THE WEEK: U44 – BRONCOS / CHIEFS
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The above dashboard illustrates two key points: the Denver Broncos do nothing well on offense and have a top 3 defense that does a number of things extremely well, namely slowing down opponent passing attacks and preventing opponents from reaching the red zone.
On offense, the Broncos rank 30th in offensive efficiency, 26th in yards per play, 20th in 3rd down conversion rate, 27th in explosive passing plays and 25th in explosive rushing plays. They cannot protect their quarterback, who has decided to not scramble this year after using his legs to his advantage for the entirety of his career with Seattle.
When you add all this up, they do not move the ball into the red zone and consequently do not score many points. They rank dead last in the league in red zone trips with just 24 in 12 games. When they do conduct a drive that reaches the red zone, the convert that trip into a TD on just 37.5% of their attempts, good for 31st in the league.
On the opposite side of the ball, the Broncos have a top 3 defense in the league that ranks 2nd in defensive efficiency, 2nd in yards per play allowed, 3rd in 3rd down conversion rate, 2nd in passing YPG allowed and 1st in explosive passing plays allowed. Their matchup with the Chiefs will be the toughest test they’ve faced all year, as KC ranks 1st in offensive efficiency, yards per play and passing YPG, but they’ve faced three offenses that currently rank in the top 12 of our offensive efficiency metrics: Tennessee, San Francisco and Baltimore. They held each of those opposing offenses to under 17 points.
From an injury perspective, Chiefs WR Kadarius Toney and Broncos WR are both OUT.
In total, this is a matchup that features an abysmal offense with poor pass protection and awful red zone conversion rate, facing an opposing Chiefs pass rush that excels getting to the quarterback. It also features an elite defense that should excel in at least slowing down a Chiefs offense through the air with a secondary that’s near the top of the league in several key passing metrics.
The Broncos are 11-1 to the UNDER this season. This is a trend that’s indicative of what’s happened previously and not necessarily an indicator of what’s yet to happen, but it tells you that the market has not adjusted nearly enough to account for Denver’s atrocious offensive capacity and defensive prowess.