Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized
AROUND THE LEAGUE
WEATHER
There are going to be severe wind conditions across the Midwest on Saturday afternoon, which will have the most significant impact in the Browns-Saints game, which kicks off at 1pm on Christmas Eve. The temperature is projected to be in the teen’s at kickoff with 30+ mph winds with gusts approaching 50 mph. The total has plummeted to 32 / 32.5.
NET YPP RANKINGS
Kansas City has moved into the 2nd slot in the NFL’s net YPP rankings (differential between yards per play gained and yards per play allowed). The Chiefs needed overtime to put the Texans away in Week 15 but out-gained Houston 502 – 219.
A week after beating the Cardinals relatively handedly, the Patriots literally handed the game to the Raiders in the final seconds of regulation by throwing the ball halfway across the field. It looked like a play when you accidentally hit the lateral button in Madden and has the potential to cost them a playoff spot. Regardless, the numbers indicate that New England ranks 8th in the league in Net YPP.
Up next for the Patriots are the Bengals, who continue to surge and round into playoff form with the stretch run effectively here. Cincy has cracked the top 10 in Net YPP, though they were outgained 237-396 in Tampa last week in a game in which they won 34-23 by forcing 4 TB turnovers.
Weekly reminder that Minnesota ranks in the league’s bottom quartile in Net YPP despite their 11-3 record.
NFC EFFICIENCY RATINGS
The Eagles lead the NFL in both our offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, which are a blend of yards per play (allowed), 3rd down conversion rate, red zone conversion rate, turnover differential and penalty yardage assessed.
The Eagles are matched up with the only other team in the NFC with top 6 ratings in both offensive and defensive efficiency in Dallas on Christmas Eve. It will be strength on strength on both sides of the ball in this Week 16 matchup, though it’ll be Minshew replacing Jalen Hurts.
By the letter of the law, SF rounds out the NFC’s contenders as the most balanced roster on either side of the ball.
NFC contenders with significant deficiencies on either or both sides of the ball:
The Giants rank 18th in defensive efficiency and have significant issues stopping the run off a Week 15 win in which they allowed Washington to rush for 160 yds.
Tampa Bay looks lost on offense and ranks 24th in offensive efficiency. They rank 24th in yards per play, 28th in yards per pass attempt and 32nd in rushing YPG, YPC and explosive rushing plays.
The Commanders have an average defense with strengths pressuring the quarterback and slowing down opposing passers, but they rank 27th in yards per play, 24th in sacks allowed and 29th in QB hits allowed.
Detroit has plenty of weapons on offense with Goff leading the helm, but their defense is a massive liability. They rank 32nd in yards per play allowed, 31st in 3rd down conversion rate, 30th in passing YPG allowed, 31st in explosive passing plays allowed and 26th in rushing YPG allowed.
AFC EFFICIENCY RATINGS
Buffalo and Cincinnati are clearly the two most balanced rosters in the AFC with talent and production on both sides of the ball. They are the only two rosters with top-7 ratings on both offense and defense.
Baltimore’s offensive efficiency has taken a massive hit in recent weeks in Lamar’s absence – they need him back healthy and on the field ASAP.
Time is a flat circle and Kansas City once again has an elite offense and a liability of a defense. They have a top 5 pass rush by sacks, but otherwise are pedestrian across the board at every other level of their defense. They’re going to need Mahomes to play near perfect in the eventual playoff showdown with either the Bills / Bengals or both.
Miami showed some guts on the road in the snow in Buffalo in Week 15, but their defense, like KC, is going to be a liability should they find themselves in a shootout-type playoff game.
The Chargers moved to 8-6 with a win over Tennessee in Week 15 but are an average team by our ratings, though the return of both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams has helped Herbert, who has now thrown for 300+ yards in each of the last three weeks.
Tennessee is excellent at defending the run (2nd in rush YPG allowed, YPC), but has major issues in the secondary, ranking 32nd in passing YPG, 25th in YPA and 30th in explosive passing plays allowed. Outside of Derrick Henry, they have JV players catching passes on offense. Ryan Tannehill is hurt, and they are simply not equipped to hang with the high-powered Bills, Bengals or Chiefs passing attacks in a playoff setting.
SCORING OUTPUT: SEASON-LONG VS L6 WEEKS
Lamar Jackson’s absence on the offensive side of the ball, combined with the impact that Roquan Smith has had on the defensive side of the ball has resulted in a compression of scoring in Ravens games since Week 9.
The Saints lack an offensive identity with Andy Dalton at the helm. Over the L3 weeks, they rank 28th in explosive passing plays, 32nd in YPC and 30th in explosive rushing plays. On defense, the Saints rank 2nd in YPP allowed, 6th in passing YPG and 1st in YPA over the same stretch.
HOME / AWAY POINT DIFFERENTIAL SPLITS
The Bills have the league’s best point differential at home in 2022 and currently sit in the pole position as the AFC’s top seed heading into Week 16.
Philly has played a relatively soft schedule but has dominated opponents regardless of the venue throughout the 2022 season. San Fran similarly has played well regardless of the location throughout this season despite constantly battling injuries on both side of the ball.
Cincy just posted an 11-point victory on the road in Tampa but have a clear edge playing at home relative to the road.
Kansas City’s offense has traveled very well this season – they score 8 points more on the road on average relative to home.
MATCHUP ANALYSIS
BEST / WORST OL MATCHUPS BY PASS RUSH
Taylor Heinicke is going to face some significant pressure behind Washington’s 27th ranked OL, facing SF’s 7th ranked pass rush. Over the L3 weeks, they’ve faced the Giants twice (18th ranked pass rush) and Atlanta (31st ranked pass rush).
Trace McSorley is going to need to use his legs to escape pressure against Tampa Bay’s 6th ranked pass rush. Against NE’s 3rd ranked pass rush two weeks ago, Colt McCoy was sacked 6 times; the Cardinals mustered just 210 yards passing.
Joe Burrow has handled pressure relatively well all season, but he’ll face the aforementioned Pats’ 3rd ranked pass rush on the road in Week 16. Over the L3 weeks, the Patriots have racked up 11 sacks and 18 QB hits, though Cincy has allowed Burrow to be sacked just 5 times in the same span.
It will be strength on strength in Dallas / Philly on Christmas Eve, with the league’s top OL by sacks allowed facing the league’s strongest pass rush. The Eagles logged 0 sacks in Week 6 against Cooper Rush, but have recorded 19 sacks and 25 QB hits over the L3 weeks, both best in the NFL.
Jared Goff is a different QB on the road relative to home, but he’ll have some time in the pocket to diagnose Carolina’s defense against a DL that ranks 23rd in the league in pass rush.
Tua will face significantly less pressure in Week 16 against Green Bay’s DL that ranks 23rd in the league in sacks after facing a top-10 Bills defense a week ago. This means he will have time to sit in the pocket and allow Tyreek Hill / Jaylen Waddle get down field, though the Packers lead the league in 2022 in explosive passing plays allowed.
RED ZONE MATCHUP ANALYSIS
Buffalo ranks 2nd in the league in RZ trips with a matchup against the Bears’ defense that ranks 22nd in RZ trips allowed and 27th in RZ TD conversion rate. The Bears’ defense continues to be in free fall since the departure of Roquan Smith. Jalen Hurts shredded this defense for 315 yds through the air a week ago, and Josh Allen should have similar success between the 20’s and inside the RZ.
After a miraculous comeback in Week 15, Minnesota should have plenty of red zone opportunities on offense against a Giants’ defense that ranks 31st in the league in RZ trips allowed and 25th in explosive passing plays allowed.
We previously mentioned that Detroit should excel in protecting Jared Goff, and if they can do so, Goff should be able to lead the Lions’ offense into the red zone at an above average clip against a Carolina defense that ranks 24th in the league in RZ trips allowed. They faced a stout Jets’ defense in Week 15 and went 0-3 in the RZ converting trips into TD’s, but it should be a different story in Week 16 against a Carolina defense that ranks 21st in RZ TD rate. Amon-Ra St. Brown has 11 catches for 83 yards and 6 TD’s on 15 targets inside the RZ in 2022.
Houston has sputtered on offense with Davis Mills at the helm and will face a Tennessee defense that ranks 5th in RZ trips allowed.
Taylor Heinicke should face consistent pressure against SF’s pass rush as we previously discussed. Should that happen, Washington is going to struggle to get into the RZ and create opportunities to score points against a 49ers’ defense that ranks 1st in the league in RZ trips allowed and 9th in RZ TD conversion rate. We’d recommend staying away from playing Commanders on player props and in the fantasy playoffs.
1H POINT DIFFERENTIAL MATCHUP ANALYSIS
The Titans rank 5th in the league in 1H point differential, facing a Texans roster that ranks 31st in the same metric. With Malik Willis starting and a juicy matchup of Derrick Henry against one of the league’s 3 worst rushing defenses, we’d expect Tennessee to try to control the clock on the ground and grind Houston down from the jump in this game.
Buffalo ranks 3rd in the league in 1H point differential with a matchup against Chicago, which ranks 30th in the same metric. The Bills have led at halftime in each of their last 8 games.
BEST RB MATCHUPS
It’s that time of the season again when Derrick Henry has a matchup with the Texans rushing defense, which ranks 32nd in rushing YPG and explosive rushing plays allowed and 27th in YPC. Henry has rushed for at least 200+ yds in each of his last 4 matchups with the Texans with 9 rushing TD’s to go with it. Malik Willis is starting again at QB, which should mean that the Titans are going to feed their stud RB early and often.
Dallas does a lot of things well on defense, but defending the run is not one of them – they rank 24th in rushing YPG and 30th in explosive rushing plays allowed. Gardner Minshew is an extremely capable backup and borderline NFL starter, so Philly should work to get the passing game going, but when the going gets tough, we expect them to use their OL to bully their way down the field, which should lead to a high-volume game from Miles Sanders, who ranks 5th in the league in rushing YPG and 3rd in explosive rushing plays.
The Browns will face a Saints’ defense that ranks 23rd in rushing YPG allowed in weather conditions that will not favor any sort of consistent passing attack (30 mph sustained winds, nearly 50 mph gusts). This should translate to a lot of forced production from Nick Chubb against a Saints’ rushing defense that allowed Tyler Allgeier and Cordarelle Patterson to rush for 191 yds on 31 carries in Week 15.