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Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results
TB (+2.5) vs ATL; O/U 45.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: TB vs ATL
- The Bucs have operated one of the most efficient offenses in the league through Week 7, but lost WR’s Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to injuries last week. Without Evans and Godwin, Mayfield will rely on WR’s Jalen McMillan, Trey Palmer and Ryan Miller and TE Cade Otton against an Atlanta defense that’s been suspect in 2024, ranking 27th in EPA/play and 30th in 3rd down conversion rate.
- The Bucs have improved significantly in the ground game in 2024 and rank 8th in rushing YPG and 4th in YPC – they will match up against an Atlanta run defense that ranks 24th in rushing YPG allowed. RB Bucky Irving is questionable, which would give Rachaad White a significant role if Irving can’t go considering Evans’ and Godwin’s absences. White and Irving ran for 116 yards total on just 19 carries in their last meeting with the Falcons earlier this season.
- Kirk Cousins has settled into the Falcons’ scheme and leads an offense that ranks 6th in YPP, 5th in early down success rate, 5th in passing YPG, 9th in YPA and 3rd in passes of 10+ yards. He will line up against a Bucs’ secondary that ranks 29th in passing YPG and 28th in passes of 10+ yards that has been lit up over the last few weeks down two of their top corners in Jamel Dean and Bryce Hall. Lamar Jackson threw for 281 yards and 5 TD’s on MNF on just 17-22 passing, while Kirk Cousins finished with 509 yards, 4 TD’s and 1 INT on 42-58 passing on TNF in Week 5.
- Drake London leads the league in receptions of 10+ yards, ranks 3rd in targets and 4th in receptions; he caught 12 balls for 154 yards and 1 TD in his last matchup with TB and should be in line for high target volume once again in Week 8.
- TB is 4-0 to the OVER in their L4 games, while ATL is 3-1 to the OVER in their L4 games.
NE (+7.0) vs NYJ; O/U 41.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: NE vs NYJ
- Drake Maye has been better than expected in his first two starts with NE, but he is going to face a difficult matchup in Week 8 against a Jets’ secondary that ranks 3rd in passing YPG, 6th in YPA and 8th in passes of 10+ yards. Maye certainly has more mobility than Jacoby Brissett, but he’ll operate in the pocket behind an OL that ranks 31st in sacks and QB hits allowed against a Jets’ pass rush that ranks 8th in sacks per game that sacked Brissett 7 times on TNF earlier this season. The Patriots’ OL has been decimated by injury, and they now have two starters on the left side of the line that are listed as questionable.
- New England’s defense has been among the league’s worst this season, ranking 29th in EPA/play, 24th in YPP, 23rd in passing YPG and 26th in passes of 10+ yards. Rodgers and the Jets have struggled to establish an offensive identity, but they have moved the ball through the air relatively effectively, ranking 10th in passing YPG and 8th in passes of 10+. Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams should both have opportunities to impact this game against a Pats’ secondary that could be without CB Jonathan Jones (questionable, DNP Friday) and SS Kyle Dugger (questionable).
MIA (-4.5) vs ARI; O/U 46.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: MIA vs ARI
- Miami’s offensive metrics and rankings are obviously heavily influenced by Tua Tagovailoa’s absence – whether you agree or disagree that he should continue his career, he will be back on the field on Sunday against an Arizona defense that ranks 28th in EPA/play, 30th in YPP allowed, 26th in passing YPG and 31st in passes of 10+ yards allowed.
- Tua has only two starts this season and did not finish the game in Week 2 on TNF against the Bills, but he threw for a crispy 338 yards and 1 TD on 23-37 passing against Jacksonville’s bottom 5 secondary in Week 1, and will now face a Cardinals’ secondary that’s been torched by Justin Herbert (27-39, 349 yards), Jordan Love (22-32, 258 yards, 4 TD’s, 1 INT) in the L2 weeks; Arizona will be without one of their starting CB’s in Sean Murphy-Bunting and could have big issues against Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane.
PIT (-5.5) vs NYG; O/U 36.5
Game Matchup Dashboard: PIT vs NYG
- The Giants head to Pittsburgh to face the Steelers on MNF reeling from a 28-3 rout against the Eagles in which Saquon Barkley ran for 176 yards and 1 TD on just 17 carries and their offense posted just 119 yards (2.2 yards per play). On the season, the Giants rank 25th in EPA/play, 29th in YPP, 23rd in 3rd down conversion rate, 23rd in passing YPG, 25th in rushing YPG and 29th in RZ TD %; they will now face a Steelers’ defense that is 2nd in defensive efficiency, 7th in EPA/play and YPP allowed, 3rd in rushing YPG, 4th in RZ TD % and 2nd in TO’s forced per game.
- Giants quarterbacks were sacked 8 times on Week 7 against Philly; the Steelers rank just 20th in sacks per game but 9th in QB hits and have TJ Watt, who is likely to make a significant impact in the pass rush against an OL that is among the league’s worst.
- Najee Harris has run for 100+ yards in each of the L2 weeks, including a performance on MNF against a Jets’ run defense that ranks 9th in YPC allowed in which he ran for 102 yards and 1 TD on 21 carries (4.9 YPC). Harris will face a Giants’ run defense that ranks 25th in rushing YPG allowed, 32nd in YPC and 31st in runs of 10+ yards that was just torched by Barkley and the Eagles (269 yards rushing total).
UNDER of the Week
DEN / CAR – UNDER 41 – DK
Game Matchup Dashboard: DEN vs CAR
- The Carolina Panthers are the most injured roster in the league and will be without QB Andy Dalton and their two best WR’s in Diontae Johnson and Adam Thielen. Bryce Young will return to the starting role to lead and offense that already ranks 27th in EPA/play and 25th in YPP against a Denver defense that ranks 3rd in EPA/play allowed, 1st in YPP allowed, 5th in passing YPG, 10th in rushing YPG, 2nd in RZ trips allowed and 1st in RZ TD %. It is difficult to envision the Panthers generating anything offensively on the road in this game off a week in which they posted 180 yards of total offense against a very bad Commanders’ defense, 70 yards of which game on a TD drive early in the 4th quarter when they were down 37-0.
- Carolina has cluster injuries on the defensive side of the ball across their front 7 and enter Week 8 ranking 32nd in rushing YPG allowed, 25th in YPC and 27th in runs of 10+ yards. Denver has been committed to running the football in Sean Payton’s offensive scheme and ranks 10th in YPC and 7th in runs of 10+ yards. Javonte Williams ran for 88 yards and 2 TD’s on just 14 carries on TNF last week against NO and is going to have plenty of opportunity to pick up significant yardage in this matchup against the league’s worst run defense.
- Expect Denver to clamp down defensively against one of the most inept offenses in football that is sending Bryce Young back out onto the field against one of the 5 best defenses in football. Denver should remain committed to the ground game, keeping the clock moving and getting out of Week 8 with a clean win against a Panthers’ roster that shouldn’t be a threat to putting points on the board. Take the UNDER 41.
Player Props of the Week
Player Matchup Dashboard: Passing YPG
Jordan Love O260.5 Passing Yards – FD
- Jordan Love leads a Green Bay offense that ranks 10th in EPA/play and 7th in YPP into Jacksonville to face a defense that ranks 29th in YPP, 30th in EPA/play and is atrocious in defending the pass, ranking 31st in passing YPG, 30th in YPA and 30th in passes of 10+ yards.
- Tua Tagovailoa (23-27, 338 yards, 1 TD), Josh Allen (23-30, 263 yards, 4 TD’s), CJ Stroud (27-40, 345 yards, 2 TD’s), Joe Flacco (33-44, 359 yards, 3 TD’s) and even Drake Maye (26-37, 276 yards, 2 TD’s) have all cleared this number against Jacksonville through Week 7.
- Green Bay has one of the most efficient offenses in football and has not had significant continuity due to injuries at QB and WR over the first half of this year, but they head down to Jacksonville to face one of the worst secondaries in football and a defense that’s actually proficient in defending the run (6th in rushing YPG allowed); expect GB to sustain offense against this unit thanks to efficiency through the air from Love and team, and take Jordan Love O260.5 passing yards.
Joe Mixon O77.5 Rushing Yards – FD
- Mixon missed a few weeks with a injury but has been one of the most productive RB’s in the league when healthy this season – he has cleared 100+ yards in 3 of 4 starts and now faces an IND run defense that ranks 31st in rushing YPG and runs of 10+ yards.
- CJ Stroud finished with just 86 yards on 10-21 passing against Green Bay last week, while Mixon picked up the slack with 115 yards and 2 TD’s on 25 carries against a Packers’ run defense that’s been slighly above average all season. Mixon took 30 carries for 159 yards and 1 TD in Week 1 in Indy in a game where the Texans posted 417 yards of total offense and 213 yards on the ground. Without Nico Collins, Houston will likely continue to rely on Mixon and the ground game – expect him to continue to get a significant workload out of the backfield against one of the worst run defenses in football, and take O77.5 rushing yards.
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 8 of the 2024 season, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
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