We are here on a weekly basis to provide you with impartial matchup analysis to navigate each week and make informed, data-driven decisions with the latest information at hand. We rely on our game and player matchup analysis dashboards that provide a concise overview of a team’s strengths and weaknesses at every level of the game and produce advantage insights by identifying key mismatches in the trenches, at the skill positions and in the secondary that will have a significant impact on game results across the league each week.
Mismatches that Will Impact Game Results in Week 9
- The Colts have rushed for 168 yards against the Browns (8th in rushing YPG) and 164 yards against the Saints (15th in rushing YPG) over the L2 weeks with Jonathan Taylor and Zach Moss splitting carries evenly. Indy on the season ranks 9th in the league in rushing YPG (129 per game) and 10th in YPC, with an excellent matchup against a Carolina run defense that ranks 29th in rushing YPG (141 rushing YPG), 30th in YPC and 26th in runs of 10+ yards. Carolina has been shredded by opposing backs all season, most recently by Alexander Mattison (17 carries, 95 yards) and Minnesota (135 total yards), David Montgomery (19 carries, 109 yards, 1 TD) and Detroit (159 total) and Raheem Mostert (17 carries, 115 yards, 2 TD’s) and Miami (162 total).
- Houston and Tampa Bay have struggled to convert RZ trips into TD’s, ranking 26th and 28th in the metric respectively. They’ll be facing opposing defenses that rank 1st (TB) and 7th (CAR) in RZ TD % allowed, meaning that points will come at a premium in this game in Houston.
- That said, CJ Stroud, who has struggled against strong secondaries in Carolina and New Orleans over the L2 weeks, will be facing a TB secondary that ranks 30th in the league in passing YPG allowed (271 YPG) and 23rd in YPA. Over the L3 weeks, Jared Goff (30-44, 353 yards, 2 TD’s), Desmond Ridder (19-25, 250 yards) and Josh Allen (31-40, 324 yards, 2 TD’s, 1 INT) have all had significant success against this secondary.
- Saquon Barkley rushed the ball 36 times for 128 yards last week against the Jets and heads into Week 9 with an excellent matchup against a Raiders’ run defense that ranks 30th in the league in rushing YPG (143 per game), 27th in YPC and 32nd in runs of 10+ yards. Jahmyr Gibbs ran the ball 26 times for 152 yards and a TD, while Craig Reynolds added another 74 yards on 14 carries. A week prior, D’Onta Foreman (16 carries, 89 yards, 2 TD’s) and Darrynton Evans (14 carries, 48 yards) combined for 137 yards on the ground in a 30-12 win over the Raiders.
- Daniel Jones looks to be back on track to return in Week 9 to face a Raiders’ secondary that conversely ranks 8th in passing YPG allowed and 5th in passes of 10+ yards allowed. Jones, Tyrod Taylor and Tommy DeVito (briefly) have combined to commandeer a Giants’ passing attack that ranks 32nd in the league in both passing YPG (183 YPG) and YPA and 29th in passes of 10+ yards, and Jones will likely be missing TE Darren Waller, who sounds like he will miss multiple weeks with an aggravated hamstring injury suffered in Week 8.
- Lamar Jackson is 17-1 SU in his career against the NFC with a matchup against Seattle on the docket in Week 9. The hypothesis is that teams that have not faced Lamar at all or have not regularly game-planned for his speed and antics in the pocket and on the run are ill-equipped relative to AFC defenses that have seen his speed to the outside multiple times.
- Baltimore ranks 6th in the league in 3rd down conversion rate and 3rd in RZ TD %, facing a Seattle defense that ranks 27th in 3rd down conversion rate and 30th in RZ TD %.
- Alvin Kamara is averaging 8 receptions, 9 targets and 46 receiving YPG, facing CHI secondary that ranks 28th in passing YPG allowed & 32nd in RB receiving yards allowed (62.5 YPG). Ekeler caught 7 balls for 94 yards and a TD in Week 8 vs CHI on SNF.
- Tyson Bagent looks to be in-line to start vs New Orleans on the road in Week 9 – he is averaging 159 passing YPG, and will be facing a Saints’ defense that ranks 5th in passing YPG allowed, 3rd in YPA and 9th in passes of 10+ yards allowed.
- 5th round rookie Clayton Tune (Houston) has the privilege if stepping under center on the road in Week 9 in Cleveland against a Browns’ defense that ranks 2nd in EPA/play, 4th in YPP allowed, 1st in 3rd down conversion rate and 1st in passing YPG allowed (183 per game). With Dobbs at the helm, Arizona ranked 30th in the league in passing YPG (197 per game) and 28th in YPA.
- Despite losing Nick Chubb in Week 2 in Pittsburgh for the season, Cleveland still ranks 2nd in the league in rushing YPG and 4th in runs of 10+ yards allowed – they will face an Arizona rushing defense that ranks 25th in rushing YPG allowed, 24th in YPC and 23rd in runs of 10+ yards allowed in 2023. Kareem Hunt (14 carries, 55 yards, 1 TD), Pierre Strong Jr. (10 carries, 41 yards) and Jerome Ford (9 carries, 37 yards) combined for 133 yards in Week 8 against a Seattle run defense that ranks 7th in rushing YPG allowed, 2nd in YPC and 5th in runs of 10+ yards allowed.
- Cincy’s defense has displayed some weaknesses early in this season, particularly in the run game where they rank 28th in rushing YPG allowed and 29th in YPC, but they rank 7th in the league in TO’s forced per game and are facing a Buffalo offense that ranks 25th in the league in TO’s per game.
Matchups in the Trenches
- Miami’s secondary has been banged up in the first half of the 2023 season, but their pass rush has been one of the best in the league, ranking 3rd in sacks per game and 8th in QB hits per game. They’ll match up in Germany against a KC OL that ranks 2nd in the league in sacks allowed per game and 1st in QB hits allowed.
- It’ll be strength on strength on the opposite side of the ball in the MIA-KC matchup, as the Dolphins’ OL ranks 3rd in sacks allowed, facing a KC front 7 that ranks 2nd in sacks. KC has logged at least 4 sacks in each of the last three games, most recently getting to Russell Wilson 6 times and holding Denver’s offense to just 240 yards of offense in Week 9 in a game where KC’s offense turned the ball over 5 times.
- TB’s OL has graded well in pass protection in 2023 in spite of preseason chatter that Tom Brady’s quick release in the pocket masked shortcomings of this OL – they rank 2nd in sacks allowed and 7th in QB hits allowed per game. TB’s offense production has plummeted over the last month or so, but Mayfield should at least have time in the pocket against a Houston pass rush that ranks 23rd in sacks per game and 20th in QB hits.
- By all accounts Jordan Love sounds like he’s running out of time to establish himself as the long-term answer at QB for the Packers on a go-forward. That said, he’s had great pass protection, as GB’s OL ranks 5th in the league in sacks allowed and 4th in QB hits allowed. They’ll be facing a Rams’ front 7 that ranks 27th in sacks allowed per game and 26th in QB hits allowed per game.
- Geno Smith was sacked just one time last week at home against Cleveland’s high-powered pass rush, but completed just 23 of 37 passes and threw 2 INT’s. He’ll stand in the pocket behind a Seattle OL that has improved significantly from years past and ranks 9th in sacks allowed, but they’ll be tasked with blocking Baltimore’s top-ranked pass rush by sacks that also ranks 6th in QB hits. Baltimore got to Jared Goff 5 times two weeks ago against a DET OL that ranks 7th in the league in sacks allowed per game.
- Deshaun Watson looks like he’ll be returning to action on Sunday at home behind an OL that ranks 24th in sacks allowed, facing a Cardinals’ pass rush that ranks 10th in sacks per game.
- Zach Wilson has cut down significantly on turnovers since his early season debacle in Dallas where he threw 3 INT’s on the road – he’s thrown just 1 INT in 5 games since. That said, he’ll be standing in the pocket behind a NYJ OL that ranks 27th in sacks allowed per game and 26th in QB hits allowed against a Chargers’ pass rush that includes Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa that ranks 6th in the league in sacks per game and 9th in TO’s forced per game.
Red Zone Matchup Analysis
- Buffalo heads on the road to Cincy this week for a SNF matchup with the Bengals in which they are ranking 3rd in the league in RZ trips per game, facing a Cincy defense that ranks 24th in RZ trips allowed but 10th in RZ TD %. Stefon Diggs leads the Bills in both RZ targets (1.5/game) and receptions (1.1/game), and should have opportunities to hit pay dirt if Buffalo continues their success in the RZ, where they rank as an offense 2nd in the league in RZ TD %.
- KC ranks 5th in the league in RZ trips, facing a Miami defense that ranks 30th in RZ trips allowed and 28th in RZ TD %. Travis Kelce ranks 3rd in the league in RZ receptions per game and should have opportunities to get into the end zone in Germany.
- Arizona will be starting 5th round rookie Clayton Tune against Cleveland’s top-5 defense that ranks 3rd in RZ trips allowed but 29th in RZ TD %. It’s difficult to imagine Tune is able to move the ball with much success in the passing game, as he is stepping into the helm of an Arizona offense that ranks 25th in EPA/play and 30th in passing YPG, facing a Cleveland defense ranking 2nd in EPA/play and 1st in passing YPG allowed.
- Fellow rookie QB Tyson Bagent will be leading a Bears offense that ranks 23rd in the league in RZ trips, facing a Saints defense that ranks 9th in RZ trips allowed, 6th in EPA/play and 7th in YPP allowed.
Player Props of the Week
Zack Moss O43.5 Rushing Yards – DKNG
- Zack Moss is averaging 4.7 YPC in 2023 and has continued to get touches in Indy’s offense even since Jonathan Taylor returned from injury in early October against the Titans. Over the L2 games, Taylor has gotten 18 and 12 carries, while Moss has gotten nearly identical the amount of touches with 18 carries (57 yards) against Cleveland (8th in rushing YPG allowed) and 11 carries for 66 yards against New Orleans.
- Indy as a team ranks 9th in the league in rushing YPG and 10th in runs of 10+ yards, facing a Carolina rushing defense that ranks 29th in rushing YPG allowed (142/game), 30th in YPC (5.1) and 26th in runs of 10+ yards.
- Shane Steichen said this week: “It’s a good one-two punch back there but JT is doing a really good job right now.’’ Jim Irsay said earlier this month of Taylor, “I think Jonathan will get a few less carries, which is good for his long-term career.”
- Through 8 weeks, Zack Moss is tied for 2nd in the league in rushes of 10+ yards and shares the league lead with DeVon Achane in runs of 20+.
- Assuming Moss continues to get a solid volume of touches as Indy tries to extend Jonathan Taylor’s shelf life after signing him to a 3-year, $42 million contract earlier this season, he’ll have an opportunity to clear this number against a Carolina defense that’s been torn up by nearly every opposing back they’ve faced in 2023.
Alvin Kamara O31.5 Receiving Yards – DKNG
- Kamara continues to be a focal point of this offense since his return from suspension in both the run game and the passing game. He’s averaging 17.2 carries per game, 64 rushing YPG, 7.8 receptions, 8.8 targets and 45.6 receiving yards per game and has cleared this number in each of the last three weeks.
- He has cleared this number in 4 of 5 games in which he’s played this season and caught 12 balls for 91 yards on 14 targets two weeks ago against Jacksonville.
- Chicago’s defense ranks 28th in the league in passing YPG allowed per game and 32nd in RB receiving yards allowed (62.5 per game). Austin Ekeler caught 7 balls for 94 yards and a TD in Week 8 against Chicago and cleared this number on the Chargers’ first drive on SNF after he caught a screen and took it 39 yards to the end zone for a Tuddy in the 1st quarter.
- Assuming that New Orleans recognizes that Chicago ranks 3rd in the league in rushing YPG allowed and 1st in the league in YPC and simultaneously watched tape of Chicago’s game 4 days ago, expect Kamara to be involved in the passing game and have opportunities in space to pick up significant YAC.
Eagles / Cowboys O46.5
- This game will feature two of the top offenses in the league by our offensive efficiency metrics – Philly ranks 5th in the league in offensive efficiency, 5th in EPA/play, 9th in YPP and 1st in 3rd down conversion rate, while Dallas ranks 4th in offensive efficiency, 8th in EPA/play and 3rd in 3rd down conversion rate. Anytime you have two top 5 offenses on the field by our efficiency ratings, we’ll be looking to the OVER.
- Philly’s secondary has been extremely suspect in the passing game week after week in 2023, ranking 26th in passing YPG allowed and 32nd in passes of 10+ yards allowed, which bodes well for CeeDee Lamb and and Brandin Cooks to pick up yards through the air in chunks. Dak Prescott found his footing over the L2 weeks against the Chargers (32nds in passing YPG allowed), finishing 21-30 for 272 yards and a TD and the Rams (13th in passing YPG allowed), where he threw for 304 yards and 4 TD’s on 25-31 passing and found CeeDee Lamb 12 times for 158 yards and 2 TD’s. Sam Howell just threw for 397 yards and 4 TD’s on 39-52 passing against Philly in Week 8.
- Even if Mike McCarthy insists on running the ball, they’ll eventually be forced to pass as they’re facing a Philly run defense that ranks 1st in rushing YPG allowed (66 per game), 8th in YPC and 2nd in runs of 10+ yards.
- Dallas’ defense grades very well on paper, ranking 3rd in EPA/play, 6th in YPP, 5th in 3rd down conversion rate and 2nd in passing YPG allowed, but look at the offenses they’ve faced this season:
- Giants: 31st in OE
- Jets: 32nd in OE
- Cardinals: 24th in OE
- Patriots: 27th in OE
- 49ers: 9th in OE
- Chargers: 2nd in OE
- Rams: 7th in OE
- Dallas’ most impressive defensive performance came against the Chargers in Week 6, but they were carved up by SF in Week 5 in a game where SF posted 421 yards of total offense, ran for 170 yards in total on the ground and posted 42 points.
- Weather will not be a factor in this one – expect both offenses to move the ball with efficiency and take the OVER 46.5
Head over to our Dashboard section of the site to comb through game matchup dashboards for every game on the board in Week 9, and browse our Player Matchup Analysis dashboards to optimize your DFS / FF lineups and target the player prop markets.
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