Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized
AROUND THE LEAGUE
NET YPP RANKINGS: CURRENT VS WEEK 6
There are currently several teams whose Net YPP ranks tell a much different story than their record:
The NY Giants were on a bye in Week 9, but at 6-2, they are perceived as a playoff contender. They’ve plummeted in the league’s Net YPP ranks the last month and now rank 29th in the league. Could regression be coming for the Giants, who were outgained by the Jaguars and Seahawks ahead of the bye?
The Titans currently sit atop the AFC South standings with a 5-3 record, but they rank 24th in the league in Net YPP and have a negative point differential of -9. Vrabel has the defense playing at a high level, ranking 3rd in the league in our defensive efficiency measure and 3rd down conversion, but they lack an offensive identity outside of Derrick Henry and have major question marks at the QB position. Ryan Tannehill was a full participant in practice on Thursday ahead of the Titans’ matchup with the Broncos. Credit to Tennessee for taking KC to OT on SNF in Week 9.
Atlanta is 6-3 ATS on the season after starting 6-0, meaning they are now 0-3 ATS in the L3 weeks. They run the ball extremely well on offense, but their secondary is going to continue to be a massive liability the rest of the season – Atlanta ranks 31st in yards per play allowed, 30th in 3rd down conversion rate, 32nd in passing YPG allowed and explosive passing plays allowed, 32nd in % of opponent’s drives to reach the RZ and 30th in total sacks with just 12.
Miami continues to surge in the rankings as Tua retakes the helm at QB. They’ve cracked the top 10 in Net YPP heading into Week 10, largely due to their explosive passing attack headlined by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Denver has made headlines after an atrocious start to the season on the offensive side of the ball, but they rank 7th in the league in Net YPP. They could be one of the more undervalued teams down the stretch as Russ settles into the offensive scheme.
Tampa and Green Bay continue to fade in our offensive efficiency ratings. Tampa lacks any sort of run game (32nd in the league in rushing YPG, YPC and explosive running plays), while everyone is growing tired of surly Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay. Against the Lions’ 32nd ranked defense by our efficiency ratings, the Packers posted 9 points and 3 INT’s – they have a much tougher matchup with Dallas’ 5th ranked defensive by our efficiency ratings in Week 10.
Speaking of Dallas, the Cowboys continue to surge in our offensive efficiency ratings with Dak back on the field. They routed the Bears and Lions before the bye and now travel to Green Bay to face the reeling Packers in Week 10.
The Bears are not an offensive juggernaut by any means, but they’ve figured something out on offense in the last month, climbing 8 slots in our rankings since Week 6. Justin Fields has been using his legs much more over the last month to keep defenses honest – he’s rushed for 320 yards in the L3 weeks, including 178 against Miami at home in Week 9.
While the Patriots have plenty of question marks on the offensive side of the ball, their defense has had the most significant climb in our rankings over the last month of play, jumping from 20th to 7th in our defensive efficiency rating. They sacked Sam Ehlinger 9 times last week and held Indy to just 121 yards of total offensive production in Week 9.
SF continues to battle the injury bug on the defensive side of the ball and has had one of the most dramatic drops in our ratings since Week 6. CB Jason Verrett suffered a season-ending Achilles injury in practice this week – he is their second corner to go out for the season after Emmanuel Moseley tore his ACL a few weeks ago. They face a banged up Chargers’ offense this week who will likely be missing Keenan Allen and Mike Williams once again.
NFC OFFENSIVE & DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS
The Eagles rank 1st in the league in both our offensive and defensive efficiency ratings. They are the only team in the NFC with top 5 ratings on both sides of he ball.
Dallas looks to be the second most balanced team in the NFC with the stretch run coming up in November and December. They face two NFC North opponents in the Packers and Vikings the next two weeks, host the Giants at home in Week 12 and then take on the Colts, Texans and Jaguars in the first 3 weeks of December before a Christmas Eve showdown with the Eagles.
The 49ers will continue to phase Christian McCaffrey into their offensive scheme while also working to disguise their weakness in the secondary down the stretch.
The Cardinals find themselves in the same boat as the Commanders and Panthers, which is bad company for a team that has plenty of talent on both sides of the ball.
Buffalo is the most complete team in the AFC on both sides of the ball, but has hit a speed bump with Josh Allen’s UCL injury. You’re never as good as you look when you win or as bad as you look when you lose in the NFL, but the Bills need Allen healthy to go deep in the playoffs after losing to the Jets on Sunday.
The Colts are reeling on offense with Sam Ehlinger starting behind the 32nd ranked OL by pass protection (32nd in sacks allowed and QB hits allowed).
The Ravens and Bengals are primed for a competitive race for the AFC North division title the rest of the way. Baltimore faces the Panthers, Jaguars, Broncos, Steelers (twice) and Falcons between now and Week 17. Cincy has a much tougher slate with matchups against the Titans, Chiefs, Browns, Bucs, Patriots and Bills all yet to come.
MATCHUP ANALYSIS
NET YPP MATCHUP ANALYSIS
Dallas heads to Green Bay as a -5 point road favorite against the reeling Packers. Dallas ranks 4th in the league in Net YPP, facing a Packers team that ranks in the middle of the pack at 17th and are losers of 5 straight games.
San Fran opened as a -3.5 point favorite against the Chargers, and the line unsurprisingly steamed up to -7 during the week. The 49ers are an excellent teaser candidate from -7 down to -1 as the more complete and marginally more healthy team relative to the Chargers, who are depleted in the WR corps and struggle to defend the run.
OFFENSIVE LINE MATCHUP ANALYSIS
The Eagles’ 6th ranked pass rush should get home against Taylor Heinicke often. Heinicke will be lining up behind the 29th ranked offensive line by pass protection that has allowed 29 sacks and ranks 31st in QB hits allowed with 73. Philly sacked Wentz 9 times in Week 3 and held Washington to just 240 total yards of offense. The Eagles outgained Washington 8.6 – 2.9 in the yards per play department and led 24-0 at halftime.
Jared Goff should have some time in the pocket this week against a Bears’ pass rush that ranks 29th in sacks and 32nd in total QB hits that also just lost Robert Quinn at the trade deadline. Add in the loss of Roquan Smith and the Lions should be able to move the ball against Chicago’s defense that’s allowed 84 points in the last 2 weeks.
Pat Mahomes should face weak pressure against a Jacksonville pass rushthat ranks 22nd in the league in total sacks and 25th in the league in sacks per game. That is going to spell trouble for a Jacksonville defense that ranks 28th in explosive passing plays allowed, facing a KC offense that ranks 2nd in the league in explosive passing plays created. No pressure on Mahomes will leave their secondary on an island all day.
RED ZONE MATCHUP ANALYSIS
The Eagles get to the red zone at the 8th highest clip of any offense with a matchup against the Commanders’ defense that ranks 28th in the league in red zone trips allowed. This should translate to a lot of red zone opportunities for AJ Brown, Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert and Devonta Smith.
Pittsburgh, Denver and Tennessee should all have tough times on offense moving the ball into the red zone, facing defenses that rank in the leagues top 10 in red zone trips allowed for the year. Interestingly enough, although Tennessee ranks 32nd in red zone trips on offense, they’re 1st in the league in red zone efficiency, scoring TD’s on 79% of trips they do enter the red zone. It’ll be strength on strength against Denver’s #1 rated defense in red zone efficiency.
TURNOVER MATCHUP ANALYSIS
The team that wins the turnover battle wins the game. The Eagles rank 1st in the league in offensive turnovers, facing a Washington defense that ranks 27th in the league in turnovers created. They also rank 1st in turnovers created, facing a Washington offense that turns the ball over at the 22nd highest clip in the league.
WR MATCHUPS
Cooper Kupp has one of the most attractive matchups of any WR this week against Arizona, which ranks 25th in passing yards allowed, 30th in explosive passing plays allowed and 26th in yards per attempt allowed. Kupp ranks 4th in the league in receiving yards per game, 2nd in total receptions and 6th in explosive receptions. He’s cleared 100 receiving yards in 5 of 8 games this season and should be the focal point of the Rams’ offensive scheme facing a Cardinals’ secondary that will be missing Budda Baker and could be missing Byron Murphy (questionable as of Thursday).
Juju Smith-Schuster continues to grow into his role in the Chiefs offensive attack with a role that’s expanded significantly over the L3 weeks. He has caught 22 balls for 325 yards and 2 TD’s the last three weeks on 25 targets, facing a Jaguars’ secondary that ranks 25th in receptions allowed and 28th in explosive passing plays allowed. The Jags have faced several lackluster passing offenses over the last month, but Davante Adams just shredded them for 146 yards and 2 TD’s on 10 catches, while Michael Pittman caught 13 balls for 134 yards in mid-October.
RB MATCHUPS
Saquon Barkley (O/U ~100 rushing yds) has the best matchup of any RB in the league in Week 10:
Saquon ranks 3rd in the league in rush YPG facing the Texans’ 32nd ranked rush defense that allows 182 YPG.
Saquon ranks 7th in the league in explosive rushing plays, facing the Texans 32nd ranked rush defense in defending explosive plays.
Saquon gets 62% of NYG’s carries – 7th most of any RB in the league
Texans rushing defense this season:
Miles Sanders – 93 yds on 17 carries
Derrick Henry / Dontrell Hilliard – 302 yards on 40 carries
Josh Jacobs – 143 yds on 20 carries
Khalil Herbert – 157 yds on 20 carries
J Williams / Melvin Gordon – 122 yds on 25 carries
Johnathan Taylor – 161 yds on 31 carries
The Bears have made a concerted effort to get Fields moving with his legs more over the last month. He’s rushed for 320 yards in the L3 weeks, including 178 against Miami at home in Week 9. He’ll face a Lions’ defense that ranks 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed per game and 27th in explosive rushing plays allowed.
Christian McCaffrey has a great matchup off the bye against a Chargers’ rushing defense that ranks 29th in the league in rushing yards allowed that just allowed the Falcons to run for 201 yards in Week 9. The Chargers allow 146 yards per game on average and rank 32nd in the league in yards per carry at 5.9. McCaffrey rushed for 94 yards on 18 carries in Week 8 against the Rams’ 4th ranked rushing defense that allows just 99 yards per game on the ground. He got 18 of 22 touches on the ground for the 49ers – Jeff Wilson got the other 4 and was traded to the Dolphins after the game. Tyron Davis-Price is the only back behind McCaffrey now. RBs vs Chargers in the last month:
Kenneth Walker III: 167 yds on 23 carries, 2 TD’s
Allgeier / Patterson / Huntley: 177 yds on 30 carries, 2 TD’s
Chubb / Hunt: 181 yds on 28 carries, 3 TD’s