Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized
AROUND THE LEAGUE
NET YPP RANKINGS
We are at the point of the season where teams have found their identity and have settled into tiers: Super Bowl contenders, playoff teams, fringe Wild Card weekend participants, non-playoff teams trending up and non-playoff teams trending down. Let’s quickly dissect each tier:
Super Bowl contenders: Buffalo, Philly, KC, SF
These teams are Super Bowl juggernauts with clear identities and complete rosters.
Playoff teams: Miami, Dallas, Baltimore, Cincinnati, Tennessee, Minnesota, Tampa Bay
With the exception of Miami, these are high quality teams that have won playoff games in previous seasons.
Fringe Wild Card weekend participants: NY Jets, Seattle, New England, Green Bay, NY Giants, LA Chargers, Washington
These are teams that are trending in the right direction and have been exciting this season, but have flaws on one side of the ball.
Non-playoff teams trending up: Jacksonville, Cleveland, Chicago, Atlanta, Detroit
These teams are below .500 but have generally outperformed expectations this season. Cleveland is the exception – they look like they are out of the playoff picture, but will have Deshaun Watson back and should be more dynamic on offense the rest of the way once he steps into action.
Non-playoff teams trending down: Denver, New Orleans, Indianapolis, Carolina, Las Vegas, LA Rams, Arizona, Houston, Pittsburgh
Each of these franchises are in various states of disarray. The Steelers, for instance, are testing uncharted waters with a new QB on whom the jury is still out, while the Broncos look to be completely handcuffed with a mediocre QB whom they paid $250M+ in the offseason.
OE RANKINGS: CURRENT VS WEEK 7
To no one’s surprise, Miami has surged over the last month and looks to be the most explosive offense in the league not named Kansas City. They’ve posted at least 30 points in each of their last three games and are going to be a problem for any defense they face to slow down. We’ll learn more about what this defense may look like in a playoff setting on the road against SF in Week 12.
Dallas has surged in our rankings the last month since Dak has returned as well.
Chicago has created a scheme in which they maximize Justin Fields’ legs and are suddenly a borderline top 10 offense.
DE RANKINGS: CURRENT VS WEEK 7
Philly has been exposed slightly in the ground game over the last few weeks since Jordan Davis went on IR, but they acquired DT’s Linval Joseph Ndamukong Suh to sure up the interior of their DL until he returns.
Tennessee has battled injuries to key starters over the last month but are one of the most physical defensive units in football.
The Broncos’ stellar defense has been absolutely wasted by their offenses’s inability to sustain any sort of offensive continuity (they rank 32nd in our offensive efficiency metric). Denver would be a dangerous playoff team if their offense was even remotely capable of scoring more than 17 points in a given week.
NFC OFFENSIVE & DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS BY WEEK
The Bears continue to surge on OE ratings after posting 30 last week against Detroit at home on Sunday while their defense continues to find its bottom after offloading Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith. Justin Fields has rushed for 325 yards with two 60+ yard TD’s in the last two weeks. They have the Falcons up next in a game that could be quite high scoring in Atlanta – the Bears have hit the Over in 5 of their last 6.
Dallas is rolling over the last month after posting 28 points and 421 yards of total offense against GB’s 10th ranked defense by our efficiency rating that entered Week 11 ranking #1 in the league in passing YPG allowed and 4th in explosive passing plays allowed. Dak threw for 265 yards and 3 TD’s (2 INT’s as well). Next up is Minnesota, which ranks 30th in passing YPG allowed and explosive passing plays allowed that’s surrendered 418 yds of passing offense to Teddy Bridgewater / Skylar Thompson, 326 yds to Kyler Murray and 330 to Josh Allen in three of the L4 weeks.
As we mentioned, Chicago’s defensive efficiency continues to plummet week over week. They lack really any redeeming qualities, ranking 27th in yards per play allowed, 31st in 3rd down conversion rate, 28th in rushing yards allowed per game, 26th in explosive rushing plays allowed, 28th in sacks and 32nd in QB hits. Atlanta’s 4th ranked rushing attack should have a strong day with Cordarrelle Patterson and Tyler Allgeier splitting carries since Patterson returned from injury.
AFC OFFENSIVE & DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS BY WEEK
The Patriots have been in free-fall in our OE ratings week over week since the season kicked off. They’ll be facing a Jets’ offense that hasn’t shown any sign of life or efficiency in 2022 in what looks like it’ll be a defensive slugfest in Foxboro.
The Bengals’ efficiency has not dipped in Jamar Chase’s absence, though they’ve played the Falcons and Panthers in 2 of the last 3 weeks. Cincy is off a bye heading to Pittsburgh who has TJ Watt back on the field. This will be a tough test for the Bengals’ OL, which has allowed Burrow to be sacked 16 times in the last 5 games and ranks 30th in sacks allowed per game. The Steelers’ defense is a different animal with TJ Watt on the field.
On the opposite side of the Bengals-Steelers matchup, Pittsburgh’s offense is flatlining as one of the three worst offenses in football. They rank 30th in OE, 31st in YPP, 26th in 3rd down conversion rate, 32nd in yards per attempt and 25th in sacks allowed per game, facing a Bengals defense that ranks 5th in the league in defensive efficiency on Sunday.
While neither the Patriots (29th in OE) nor Jets (27th in OE) excel at moving the ball efficiently on offense, their defenses are two highly respectable units that have climbed in our rankings over the course of the last month and a half.
NYJ ranks 3rd in the league in YPA allowed and 7th in explosive passing plays allowed led by Sauce Gardner, who’s been a stud as a rookie. They also have a top 10 pass rush that ranks 2nd in the league in QB hits per game.
New England also excels in several different facets on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 2nd in the league in sacks, 10th in explosive passing plays allowed and 8th in explosive rushing plays allowed. Zach Wilson threw for 355 yards in Week 8 but turned the ball over 3 times. Expect the Patriots to try to limit chunk plays and Wilson to try to limit turnovers.
The Eagles, Bills and Bengals are the only three teams in the league with a top 5 offensive and defensive per our efficiency ratings. Baltimore may be the 4th most complete team in the league, ranking 7th in both OE and DE.
With the exception of Dallas, NY Giants and San Fran, the remainder of playoff contenders have a strength on one side of the ball countered by a relative or significant weakness on the other side, i.e. Miami ranks 5th in offensive efficiency and 30th in defensive efficiency.
MATCHUP ANALYSIS
PASS PROTECTION
Philly’s 4th ranked pass rush should be able to make things hectic for Matt Ryan behind Indy’s 31st rated offensive line that’s allowed 36 sacks and 79 QB hits on the season. Indy will likely lean on Johnathan Taylor against a rushing defense that’s struggled over the last month of the season.
The LA Rams continue to have a revolving door on the offensive line and will start their 10th unique combination on the OL in Week 11 against New Orleans’ 7th ranked pass rush that sacked Kenny Pickett six times in Week 10.
The Cardinals’ QB situation is up in their air for MNF in Mexico. If Kyler starts with less than 100% legs, the 49ers’ 4th ranked pass rush is going to be able to bottle him up in the pocket and the Cardinals’ offense should struggle as a result. It doesn’t help that DeAndre Hopkins DNP on Thursday with a hamstring issue.
Jared Goff should have some time to sit in the pocket behind the 4th ranked pass protection unit, facing the NY Giants’ average pass rush.
If Arizona can’t get pressure on Jimmy G, the 49ers should be able to establish the run and get some play action going against a passing defense that ranks 25th in the league in passing yards allowed per game, 30th in explosive passing plays allowed, 31st in % of drives to reach the red zone and 28th in red zone conversion rate.
Carolina is going to struggle to generate a pass rush against a borderline top 10 pass protection unit in Baltimore. Should they generate any sort of rush, they’ll leave themselves susceptible to some big plays from Lamar with his legs – Carolina ranks 31st in the league in explosive running plays allowed.
RED ZONE MATCHUP ANALYSIS
Kansas City, Baltimore, Buffalo and Detroit all have excellent matchups against defenses that allow red zone trips at a high clip. Playmakers on each of these offenses will have opportunities to convert RZ trips into TD’s
The Raiders, Steelers and Patriots are going to have a difficult time moving the ball into the red zone against the Broncos, Vikings and Jets, respectively. An inability to reach the red zone makes it significantly more difficult to score points – each of these offenses are facing an uphill battle against top tier defenses.
RB MATCHUPS
Saquon Barkley once again has the best matchup of any RB on Sunday against a Lions’ defense that ranks 31st in rushing yards allowed per game and 30th in explosive running plays allowed. Barkley leads the league in rushing yards per game and ranks 6th in % of his team’s carries in the ground game, facing a Detroit defense that’s been shredded by opposing backs consistently all season. Since the beginning of October:
Rashad Penny: 151 yds on 17 carries, 2 TD’s
Rhamondre Stevenson: 161 yds on 25 carries
Tony Pollard / Ezekiel Elliot: 140 yds on 27 combined carries, 2 TD’s
Justin Fields: 147 yds on 13 carries, 2 TD’s; Khalil Herbert & David Montgomery: 94 yds on 19 carries
Dalvin Cook should have an opportunity to have a big day on the ground against Dallas, whose only weakness on the defensive side of the ball is stopping the run. Cook ranks 7th in the league in rushing yards per game and 8th in the league in explosive rushing plays, facing a Dallas defense that ranks 29th in the league in rushing yards allowed per game and 27th in explosive rushing plays allowed. Cook ranks 4th in the league in share of his team’s carries. In the last two weeks:
Aaron Jones & AJ Dillon: 203 yds on 37 carries, 1 TD
Fields / Herbert / Montgomery: 212 yds on 39 carries, 2 TD’s
WR MATCHUPS
Justin Jefferson had one of the best games of his career on Sunday in Buffalo, but he’ll face a tough task against Dallas’ stout secondary that ranks 4th in passing yards allowed (207 YPG) and yards per attempt (5.8) and 2nd in explosive passing plays allowed. Dallas has an aforementioned weakness on defense that we expect the Vikings to try to exploit. Jefferson only caught 2 balls for 21 yards in the Vikings’ matchup with Dallas in October 2021.
On the opposite side of the ball, Ceedee Lamb has perhaps the best matchup of any WR in the league on Sunday against a Vikings’ secondary that ranks 30th in passing YPG, 29th in YPA and 30th in explosive passing plays allowed. Dak found Ceedee for 150 yards and 2 TD’s on 15 total targets against Green Bay’s top 5 passing defense last week, and it’ll likely be much of the same in Week 11 in Minnesota. Over the last month, superstar WR’s have shined against the Vikings’ secondary:
Stefon Diggs: 128 yds on 12 catches; Gabe Davis: 93 yds on 6 catches
Deandre Hopkins: 159 yds on 12 catches, 1 TD; Rondale Moore: 92 yds on 7 catches, 1 TD
Tyreek Hill: 177 yds on 12 catches; Jaylen Waddle: 128 yds on 6 catches
TOTAL OF THE WEEK: PATRIOTS / JETS U38.5
There’s a lot of reasons to like the Under in this Week 11 matchup between the Patriots and the Jets when you dive into the matchup analysis dashboard above, available for every Week 11 matchup on our site at Sporting-Intelligence.com.
As we discussed on several occasions earlier in the newsletter, this matchup will feature two of the five worst offenses in football by our offensive efficiency metrics and two defenses that have surged in our ratings over the last 6 weeks – New England ranks 6th in DE, while NYJ ranks 15th, but evidenced by our matchup dashboard above, ranks in the league’s top 10 in a boat load of metrics. Both teams excel in defending both the run and the pass and apply significant pressure to opposing QB’s.
In their Week 8 matchup, Zach Wilson threw for 355 yards but turned the ball over 3 times. We expect Bellichick to limit chunk plays on the Jets side of the ball, while Wilson will likely be more judicious with the ball and take what the defense gives to him as he did against Buffalo’s 2nd ranked defense two weeks ago at Metlife, throwing for just 154 yards on 25 attempts with 0 INT’s.
In their second meeting, expect both teams to limit turnovers in a divisional matchup that will carry significant implications in the AFC playoff picture. Expect both teams to lean on their defense and try to win the field position battle to manufacture points where they can – NYJ ranks 5th in the league in red zone trips allowed while NE ranks 11th. NE led 22-10 around the 3-minute mark of the 4th quarter in Week 8 before allowing a garbage time TD in which the Jets pulled closer at 22-17.
Finally, the forecast on Sunday in Foxboro is projecting 15-20 MPH winds, which provides another compelling reason to take this Under. If the wind is gusting, neither team is going to be looking to be pushing the ball down the field and sailing a pass that could be picked and flip the fields.