Week 12 Preview – Sporting Intelligence

Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized

AROUND THE LEAGUE

NET YARDS PER PLAY RANKINGS THROUGH WEEK 11

  • Though they are just 6-4, the 49ers rank 2nd in the league in the Net YPP ranking heading into Week 12 (5th in YPP; 2nd in YPP allowed). They are going to be a tough out for any NFC opponent down the stretch and in the postseason off a 38-10 rout of the Arizona Cardinals in Mexico City on MNF in which they scored 24 unanswered points to finish the game.

  • The Vikings improved to 9-2 on the season with a win on Thanksgiving at home over the Patriots; however, by the Net YPP rating, they are a bottom 5 team in the league. There is some frothiness in the Vikings’ perception as a legitimate contender in the NFC due to their impressive record, but against two of the other top 3 teams in the NFC (Eagles, Cowboys), the Vikings have been routed.

  • The Giants and Chargers find themselves in the thick of the Wild Card races in the NFC and AFC, but their Net YPP ratings tell a much different story as two teams with bottom 8 ratings. The Chargers are particularly fraudulent on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 31st in YPP allowed heading into Week 12.

NFC OFFENSIVE & DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

  • The Eagles are the only team in the NFC with top 5 rankings in both offensive and defensive efficiency heading into week 12.

  • By our internal efficiency ratings, the Cowboys and 49ers are the two most balanced teams in the NFC behind Philly.

  • Similar to story with our Net YPP ratings, Minnesota’s efficiency ratings tell a much different story than their 9-2 record does. Minnesota looks like they’ll be hosting a playoff game by the time the postseason rolls around, but be cautious backing them when rubber meets the road.

NFC PASSING & RUSHING RANKINGS

  • Philly has excelled consistently this season running the ball on offense and shutting down their opponents in the passing game on the defensive side of the ball. The additions of Suh and Linval Joseph prior to Week 11 paid immediate dividends after their rushing defense lagged in Jordan Davis’ absence. Dallas Goedert’s absence on offense has slowed their passing production. They have a solid matchup with Green Bay’s 26th ranked rushing defense on SNF in Week 12.

  • Brady has led the Bucs to a top 5 passing attack, but the Bucs have no balance on offense with the league’s worst rushing attack. They muster only 72 yards per game on the ground and 3.4 yards per carry, though they’re matched up with Cleveland’s rushing defense that ranks 28th in yards per carry in Week 12.

AFC OFFENSIVE & DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

  • Buffalo, Baltimore, Cincinnati and Tennessee look to be the most balanced and dangerous rosters as we enter the stretch run.

  • The Jets have found themselves squarely in the AFC playoff picture in spite of Zach Wilson, who has led the Jets to a rating as the 28th most efficient offense in the league.

  • Miami is one of the most efficient offenses in the league with Tua at the helm, but their defense looks like it will be a liability should they find themselves matched up with a top 10 offense in Buffalo, Baltimore, Cincy or Kansas City.

AFC PASSING & RUSHING RANKINGS

  • Miami does not have a strong rushing attack on offense, though the acquisition of Jeff Wilson from San Fran a few weeks ago paid dividends against Cleveland. Wilson rushed for 119 yards on 17 carries against the Browns after spending several seasons with Mike McDaniels on the 49ers.

  • Cincy has struggled to sustain a consistent rushing attack all season. That’s going to be an issue against Tennessee’s 2nd ranked rushing defense on Sunday with Joe Mixon out with a concussion. Burrow and the Bengals’ 4th ranked passing offense has a strong matchup with Tennessee’s 32nd ranked passing defense, though it doesn’t look like Jamar Chase will be back in the mix.

  • The Chargers have also struggled to consistently perform in the ground game in 2022, but Herbert has picked up the slack despite missing Keenan Allen and Mike Williams for significant portions of the year. Keenan Allen played in Week 11 for the first time in months and caught 5 balls for 94 yards against KC. He’ll be in line for another strong game in Week 12 against Arizona’s 25th ranked passing defense by yards allowed.


MATCHUP ANALYSIS

PASS PROTECTION MATCHUPS

  • Justin Fields suffered a separated shoulder in Week 11 and now faces a very difficult matchup against the Jets’ 4th ranked pass rush in Week 12 should he play. Robert Saleh indicated that if Fields plays, they are going to get after him and try to knock him around. Trevor Siemian is going to be in for a rough day if he is at the helm.

  • Matt Stafford is catching a break in Week 12 against the Chiefs’ 4th ranked pass rush. Bryce Perkins will need to utilize his mobility in his first career start.

  • The Steelers’ are the 25th ranked pass rush on paper as it stands through Week 12, but their pass rush has improved since TJ Watt has returned with a very favorable matchup against Indy’s 31st ranked pass protection unit that allowed Matt Ryan to be sacked 4 times last week in a 17-16 loss to the Eagles.

RED ZONE MATCHUP ANALYSIS

  • With Keenan Allen back in the fold, the Chargers should have plenty of opportunities to put points on the board against Arizona’s defense that allows the most red zone trips on the season. Arizona also ranks 29th in the league in red zone conversion percentage, meaning opponent’s convert red zone trips into TD’s at an extremely high clip.

  • The Panthers rank 31st in the league in red zone trips, facing a Broncos defense that ranks 1st in the league in red zone trips allowed. Denver’s defense also leads the league in red zone conversion rate when opponents do enter the red zone. The only team that trails Carolina in red zone trips logged in 2022 is Denver. Points are going to come at a premium in this matchup in which the total is currently at 36.

QB MATCHUP OF THE WEEK: JOE BURROW

  • Joe Burrow has the strongest matchup of any QB in Week 12 for a multitude of reasons (O/U 279.5 -113) on FanDuel.

    • Burrow ranks 4th in the league in passing yards per game, averaging 289 per game. He’ll be facing a Titans’ defense that ranks 32nd in the league, allowing 288 on average. This is a stunning stat when you consider that the Titans have faced the Colts (twice), Giants, Texans and Broncos.

    • When they’ve faced above average QB’s in the context of the 2022 season, i.e. Mahomes, Josh Allen, Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers, the Titans’ pass defense has been shredded.

      • Josh Allen: 26-38, 317 yds, 4 TD’s

      • Pat Mahomes: 43-68, 446 yds, 1 TD

      • Derek Carr: 25-44, 303 yds, 2 TD’s

      • Aaron Rodgers (broken thumb, very surly vibe with his receivers and life in general): 27-39, 227 yds, 2 TD’s

      • Even Carson Wentz, who by all accounts objectively stinks, went 25-38 for 359 yds and 2 TD’s against the Titans this season.

    • As we discussed previously, the Bengals have struggled to establish any sort of ground game this season, ranking 28th in rushing yards per game. They’ll be missing Joe Mixon to a concussion this week and are matched up with a Titans’ defense that ranks 2nd in the league in rushing yards allowed with just 83 on average.

    • Translation: Cincy is going to struggle to move the ball on the ground without one of their top playmakers and will have to rely heavily on the passing game to sustain offense and put points on the board in Week 12.

RB MATCHUPS

  • Josh Jacobs looks to have the strongest matchup of any player on the above against Seattle’s 28th ranked rushing defense on Sunday, but he was added to the injury report on Friday with a calf injury and is questionable to play on Sunday.

  • Miles Sanders has an attractive matchup with Green Bay’s 26th ranked rushing defense that also ranks 24th in the league in explosive rushing plays allowed. Green Bay’s rushing defense has been a notable weakness for a unit that’s otherwise been very sturdy throughout the 2022 campaign. Sanders continues to get a majority of the carries for the Eagles in running situations where Hurts isn’t the designed runner or scrambling the football. The Eagles’ passing offense has sputtered slightly over the last few weeks without Dallas Goedert, so we’d expect Philly to rely on what’s been their bread and butter the last 2 seasons against a subpar rushing defense.

  • Miami has not excelled running the football on the season, ranking 27th in rushing yards per game. The acquisition of Jeff Wilson thus made sense after he requested a trade following the CMC trade to SF. Wilson rushed for 119 yards on 17 carries against Cleveland two weeks ago and has an excellent matchup with Houston’s 32nd ranked rushing defense that allows 180+ yds per game and also ranks dead last in the league in explosive running plays. If you’ve read this newsletter consistently this season, we’ve been targeting Houston’s rush defense often and like this matchup alot, particularly with Raheem Mostert listed as doutbtful for Sunday.

TOTAL OF THE WEEK: UNDER 39 – COLTS / STEELERS

The above is a snip of our matchup analysis dashboards for the MNF matchup between the Colts and the Steelers. Sign up for free access for the rest of the season at Sporting-Intelligence.com to view our matchup analysis dashboards in every game of the Week 12 slate.

  • The Colts and Steelers enter this Week 12 meeting on MNF as two of the 5 least efficient offenses in the league. Indy ranks 32nd in the league in offensive efficiency, while Pittsburgh ranks 27th. These two offenses have deficiencies across the board in the passing game, running game and pass protection.

    • Indy ranks 28th in yards per play, 24th in 3rd down conversion rate, 26th in rushing yards per game and YPC, 30th in red zone conversion percentage, 21st in sacks allowed per game and 32nd in QB hits allowed.

    • Pittsburgh ranks 31st in yards per play, 23rd in 3rd down conversion rate, 31st in yards per attempt, 25th in yards per carrie and 25th in sacks allowed per game.

  • On the defensive side of the ball, we have the Colts graded as the 9th most efficient defense, ranking 7th in yards per play allowed, 4th in 3rd down conversion rate, 6th in passing yards allowed per game, 9th in explosive passing plays allowed, 3rd in yards per carry allowed and 3rd in % of opponent’s drives to reach the red zone.

  • Pittsburgh ranks in the middle of the pack in alot of defensive metrics, but they’ve missed their best player in TJ Watt in Weeks 2-9, which is a significant drag on their defensive rankings. They were just shredded last week by Cincy’s high flying offense, but held New Orleans to just 186 yards of total offense.

  • In summary, this is matchup is going to feature two highly inefficient offenses, a top 10 defense in Indy and a Pittsburgh defense that is somewhat underrated due to TJ Watt’s absence for most of the 2022 campaign. We expect points to come at a premium on MNF in this matchup and expect this total to go UNDER 39.