Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized
AROUND THE LEAGUE
NET YARDS PER PLAY RANKINGS
We have been beating the drum for the past few weeks now, but the Vikings rank 28th in the league in Net YPP – this is a HUGE red flag. They rank 21st in the league in YPP on offense and 30th in the league in YPP allowed on defense. At 9-2, the Vikings had had their doors blown off by the Eagles and Cowboys on separate occaisions. Eight of their 9 wins have been by one score or less. They are a talented team but have major deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball:
32nd in passing yards allowed per game, YPA allowed and explosive passing plays allowed
26th in red zone conversion rate allowed on defense
25th in QB hits
The residuals the Giants are facing from Dave Gettleman’s extremely poor handling of the salary cap during his tenure with the Giants are finally starting to show some cracks. The Giants are losers of three of four at the hands of the Seahawks, Lions and Cowboys. They only took care of the Texans by one score at home in mid-November. The future is bright with Daboll at the helm, but the Giants rank 23rd in YPP, 28th in passing YPG, and 26th in sacks allowed and QB hits allowed. On defense, they have major deficiencies in the secondary, in the pass rush and defending the run
23rd in explosive passing plays allowed
26th in rushing yards allowed per game
32nd in percentage of opponent’s drives to reach the red zone
26th in total sacks
POINT DIFFERENTIALS
At this stage of the season, a team’s record is never the best indicator of its quality. Point differential sheds some light on a team’s performance over the first three months of the season. The league’s best and worst teams are obvious when you take a glance at the standings, but point differentials can help sift through the noise in the middle.
Frothy teams with winning records and average point differentials: MIN, TEN, WAS, NYG, LAC
Minnesota: The Vikings are 9-2 with a +5 point differential. They are perhaps the most fraudulent division leader in football.
Tennessee: The Titans’ point differential is heavily influenced by their 41-7 loss to the Bills in Week 2, but they’re a team similar to the Vikings in that they’ve won 5 games by less than one score against less than impressive opponents: Raiders, Colts, Commanders, Texans, Broncos. Wins are wins in the NFL, but history has shown us that a lack of a vertical passing attack is a red flag in the postseason.
LA Chargers: The Chargers are one of the most puzzling teams in the league over the last two seasons. They have talent all over the roster, but consistently find themselves hovering around the .500 mark and on the fringe of the postseason race. Teams with -30 point differentials generally don’t make the postseason, let alone advance.
HOME / ROAD POINT DIFFERENTIAL SPLITS
Several interesting trends have emerged among some notable playoff contenders with regard to home and road splits.
Buffalo is +12.5 points better at home than they are on the road and scores nearly 10 points less when they aren’t playing at Highmark Stadium.
Kansas City is +6.0 points better when they’re on the road, a sign of their durability and experience no matter the venue. They’ve posted 40+ point performances on separate occasions on the road against the Bucs and 49ers this season – their offense travels well.
The Bengals are +11.1 points better at home than they are on the road thus far in 2022. Joe Burrow’s splits are noticeable:
Home: 328 passing yards per game, 71% completion rate, 8.5 YPA
Road: 364 passing yards per game, 67% completion rate, 7.2 yards per attempt
The Dolphins are +13.1 points better at home than they are on the road in Mike McDaniels’ first season as head coach. The Dolphins is going to have to prove they can hang with AFC juggernauts on the road in the cold weather come January when they don’t have the advantage of stifling Florida humidity to wear down their opponents. That said, speed travels well regardless of the temperature as it pertains to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
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WEEK 13 MATCHUP ANALYSIS
PASS PROTECTION MATCHUPS
Matt Ryan and the Colts offensive line are in for a rough day against Dallas’ top-ranked pass rush. The Colts have allowed 43 sacks through 12 games, while the Cowboys have racked up 45. Dallas sacked Kirk Cousins 7 times two weeks ago and held Cousins to just 105 yards through the air on 12-23 passing. It’s difficult to imagine Ryan having any success against this defense – the Cowboys’ secondary ranks 3rd in the league in passing yards per game allowed, largely due to their ferocious pass rush.
Russell Wilson is going to have an awful time on the road against Baltimore’s 5th ranked pass rush. Denver has used seven different offensive line combinations with three starters from opening day on IR.
Anecdotally, Cincy’s OL has held up relatively well as the Bengals offensive production has surged over the last month and a half, but they’re going to face a tough test against Kansas City’s 5th ranked pass rush on Sunday. Chris Jones should have plenty of opportunities to get after Burrow to disrupt Cincy’s passing attack.
Pat Mahomes should have plenty of time in the pocket against a Cincy pass rush that ranks 28th in sacks. That should bode well for Kelce and the rest of the receiving corps to get open down the field and open up some opportunities for chunk passing plays for KC.
Jared Goff will stand behind the 3rd ranked OL by pass protection, facing a Jaguars’ pass rush that is tied with the Bengals for 28th in the league in sacks. Goff should have a strong day at home against a Jaguars defense that ranks 24th in passing yards allowed per game, 25th in yards per attempt and 27th in explosive passing plays allowed. Goff’s home / road splits are noticeable in 2022:
Home: 258 passing YPG, 15 TDs, 3 INTs
Road: 227 passing YPG, 2 TD’s, 4 INT’s
Justin Herbert should face equally limited pressure against LV’s 31st ranked pass rush standing behind his 7th ranked pass protection unit. Herbert ranks 6th in the league in passing yards per game and 4th in explosive passing plays, facing a Raiders’ defense that should generate limited pressure and ranks 26th in passing yards per game and 29th in yards per attempt. In 2 games since Keenan Allen has returned from injury, Herbert has thrown for 277 yards per game, 5 TD’s and 1 INT.
CHIEFS / BENGALS
The above is a sample of the matchup analysis dashboard available for the Bengals / Chiefs game on Sunday. All matchup analysis dashboards are available at Sporting-Intelligence.com for free for the rest of the 2022 season.
This AFC Championship rematch is going to feature the top two offenses by our offensive efficiency ratings in 2022. Both teams excel in moving the ball through the air – the Bengals rank 3rd in passing yards per game and 4th in explosive passing plays and will have Jamar Chase back on Sunday. The Chiefs meanwhile lead the league passing yards per game and rank 2nd in both YPA and explosive passing plays.
Kansas City ranks 23rd in the league in passing yards allowed per game and 32nd in red zone conversion rate on defense.
Cincy ranks 2nd in the league in red zone conversion percentage on offense, while Kansas City leads the league in red zone trips and ranks 7th in the league in red zone conversion percentage on offense.
Cincy has scored 27+ points in four of their last five games with Jamar Chase in the lineup.
Kansas City has scored 26+ points in 4 of their last 5 games. The only game in which they didn’t clear 26 was against Tennessee in a defensive slugfest.
Pat Mahomes has passed for 320+ yards in each of his last six games, including two performances over 400+ yards.
Joe Burrow has cleared 270 passing yards in four of his last six games. He threw for 446 yards and 4 TD’s late in the 2021-22 regular season against Kansas City at home.
It’s a chalky, public play, but we like the OVER 52.5 in this game. Expect offensive fireworks early and often from the league’s two top offenses.
RB MATCHUP ANALYSIS
The above is a sample of our player matchup dashboards available on our site. Game and player matchup dashboards for QB, RB and WR analysis are are available for FREE for the rest of the 2022 season.
Josh Jacobs took the league lead in rushing with a 229-yard, 2 TD performance against the Seahawks on Sunday on 33 carries. He faces the Chargers defense on Sunday that ranks 28th in rushing yards allowed per game and 32nd in yards per carry. Jacobs leads the league in share of his team’s carries – he gets 82.5% of LV’s rushing attempts. The Chargers are completely decimated by injury on the interior of their defensive line and have been carved up the last 5 weeks:
Kenneth Walker III: 23 carries, 167 yds, 2 TD’s
Allgeier / Patterson / Huntley: 30 carries, 177 yds, 2 TD’s
Mitchell / McCaffrey / Samuel: 36 carries, 144 yds, 1 TD
Pacheco / McKinnon: 21 carries, 131 yds
James Conner: 25 carries, 120 yds
Nick Chubb has the honor of taking on the Texans’ 32nd ranked rushing defense in Week 13. We’ve chronicled Houston’s woes in defending the run nearly every week in this newsletter, so we won’t beat a dead horse. Chubb ranks 3rd in the league in rushing yards per game and 1st in explosive rushing plays, facing a defense that ranks 32nd in both metrics.
Miles Sanders has been on a tear this season in a contract year, but will face a stiff test against Tennessee’s 3rd ranked rushing defense that has stifled opponents all season. The Eagles are going to need to rely on Jalen Hurts’ arm against a Titans secondary that ranks 31st in the league in passing yards allowed per game.
MODEL PICKS
Our model has 5 predictions for Sunday. These computer totals have been back-tested over the last 7 seasons and historically hit at a 63% clip over an extended period of time. On the season, totals are 21-19, slightly above breakeven. Given historical performance over an extended sample size, we are expecting positive regression over the next 5 weeks after a blistering 18-8 start to the season.