Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized
AROUND THE LEAGUE
As the stretch run continues to heat up and the playoff picture becomes more clear, it’s important to separate the contenders from the pretenders. If the playoffs started today, here’s a look at how the NFC playoff picture would shake out.
Philly is the odds-on favorite to win the NFC at +170 and their ratings across every level of their offense and defense support that. They’ve gotten banged up the L2 weeks with injuries to QB Hurts, RT Johnson and CB Maddox, but a win over the Saints on Sunday would seal the top seed and a first round bye in the NFC. Lane Johnson has indicated that he’ll forgo surgery until after the season and will play in the postseason. Philly’s run defense struggled in the middle of the year, but Jordan Davis has returned and is making an impact.
The numbers indicate that San Fran is the second most complete team in the NFC at +260 despite battling injuries all season. They have the scheme under Kyle Shanahan to maximize Brock Purdy’s potential with the weapons he has around him in space. Their secondary is their biggest weakness, but they stop the run and get after the QB (7th in sacks, 2nd in QB hits). They have won 8 straight with an average margin of victory if 16.6 points – not surprisingly they are 7-1 ATS in the same span.
Dallas (+450 to win NFC) is off a momentous win at home on Christmas Eve over a backup QB and will likely enter the postseason in the 5th slot with a road matchup against the Bucs. They have a well-constructed roster with playmakers all over the place, but struggle to defend the run (19th in YPC, 29th in explosive run plays allowed). They’ve faced only two above average defenses by our efficiency ratings since Wk 7 (PHI, HOU).
Minnesota (+800 to win NFC) has a high-powered passing attack, but barely positive point differential, awful Net YPP rating, poor rushing attack and porous secondary. Eleven of their 12 wins this season have come by 1 score or less. The OVER has hit in 10 of Minnesota’s L13 games due to an effective offense and ineffective secondary.
The Giants (43/1) and Commanders (42/1) are pretenders to a T with poor Net YPP ratings and significantly negative point differentials. Neither team excels passing the football, while the Giants struggle to defend the run. The Commanders’ defense could make a playoff matchup with the Vikings interesting, while the Giants matchup up extremely poorly with the 49ers should the current playoff picture hold – the 49ers would likely seek to run the ball straight through them, dominate TOP and move onto the Division Round.
Detroit (55/1) and GB (34/1) would be the two most interesting alternates on the final 2 NFC slots. The Lions have an excellent offense and equally poor defense, while Aaron Rodgers is looking to run the table to sneak in the backdoor of the NFC playoffs with a matchup against the Vikings looming large in Week 17. The Lions have covered 7 of their L8 games, but were just shredded by the Panthers for 320 rushing yards in Week 16.
The AFC is effectively a 3-way race between the Bills (+165), Chiefs (+220) and Bengals (+470).
The numbers indicate that Buffalo is the most complete roster in the AFC with a showdown against Cincy looming on MNF. The Bills find themselves gridlocked at the top of the AFC with the Chiefs for the 1-seed and home-field advantage but do hold the tie-breaker due to their Wk 6 win over KC.
Despite a pedestrian defense that struggles to defend the pass again in 2022, KC tops the league in Net YPP with the league’s most efficient offense. KC leads the league in explosive passing plays and RZ trips, ranking 4th in RZ conversion rate. The Chiefs have more RZ TD’s than 8 teams have RZ trips. They have re-invented their offense in 2022 without Tyreek Hill, going under center more often and utilizing dynamic RB duo in Jerrick McKinnon and Isaiah Pacheco. McKinnon leads the league in receiving TD’s by an RB and ranks 5th in receiving yardage.
Cincy’s numbers are somewhat influenced by a slow start to the 2022 campaign, but they’ve found their footing on offense behind a newly rebuilt OL and despite an extended absence of Jamar Chase. They lost RT La’el Collins to a torn ACL / MCL in the first quarter of Week 16 vs NE. How the Bengals pass protection will hold up will be apparent immediately on MNF against a Buffalo pass rush that ranks 11th in the league in sacks and QB hits per game. The Bengals are 12-1 ATS in their L13 and have lost only 1 game by more than 1 field goal.
While Buffalo, KC and Cincy are the three most logical picks to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, Baltimore (+1100) is the most interesting darkhorse in either conference pending Lamar Jackson’s availability, though you need a passing attack to go deep in the postseason and the Ravens not shown an ability to sustain that (30th pass YPG, 27th explosive passes). Baltimore is just one of 6 teams in the NFL with top 10 rankings in both our offensive and defensive efficiency metrics. Over the L3 weeks, the Ravens lead the NFL in rushing YPG and explosive rushing plays in Jackson’s absence. Since acquiring Roquan Smith, the Ravens have held opponents to 14 points or less in 6 of 7 games.
Miami (21/1) is dealing with another concussion controversy with the postseason around the corner. Teddy Bridgewater is an excellent backup and has shown he can fill in effectively in this scheme, but the Dolphins don’t appear to have enough defensive firepower to go deep in the postseason in 2022, ranking 28th in DE and 29th in passing YPG.
Jacksonville (31/1) and Tennessee (80/1) will play for the division title in Week 18. The Titans are among the league’s most injured teams, while the Jaguars could make a matchup with any AFC contender at least interesting. Since Week 9, Trevor Lawrence ranks 3rd in completion percentage, second in passer rating and has thrown 14 TD’s to just one INT. They have covered 5 of their L7 since losing to the Broncos in London. Their offense is surging under Doug Pederson, but their defense, specifically in the secondary, is what will hold them back in the postseason. They rank 28th in explosive pass plays allowed and sacks and 29th in 3rd down conversion rate.
MATCHUP ANALYSIS
BEST / WORST OL MATCHUPS
The Broncos have 4 OL on IR with their 2 starting guards listed as questionable on Sunday. They’ll face KC’s 4th ranked pass rush in Week 17 after allowing KC to rack up 6 sacks in Week 14. The Broncos are off a 51-14 loss to the Rams, a sideline scuffle between Brett Rypien and Dalton Risner, followed by Nathaniel Hackett’s firing. They are a mess and Russell Wilson should face significant pressure this week.
One of Indy’s only bright spots is their pass rush, which will match up with NYG’s 28th ranked OL by pass protection in Week 17. The Giants have faced top pass rushes in 4 of their L5 games against Washington (12th in sacks), Dallas (3rd in sacks) and Philly (1st in sacks) – Daniel Jones has thrown for 189 YPG with only 3 TD’s in 4 games.
Burrow will be tested without La’el Collins against Buffalo’s 11th ranked pass rush on MNF. Burrow has handled pressure extremely well over the last month. He’s faced 4 top 12 pass rushes (TEN, KC, NE, TB) – in those 4 games, he’s averaging a 72% completion percentage, nearly 284 passing yds / game and 10 TD’s to just 2 INT’s.
Jared Goff has an excellent matchup at home in Week 17 against the worst pass rush in football behind the 2nd ranked OL by pass protection. Chicago’s two starting CB’s (Vildor, Johnson) both went on IR 2 weeks ago. Goff’s home/road splits continue to be noticeable:
Home: 277 pass YPG, 20 TD’s, 3 INT’s
Away: 249 pass YPG, 6 TD’s, 4 INT’s (3 road TD’s came on the road in Carolina last week)
Brock Purdy should face limited pressure behind the 6th ranked OL by pass protection against LV’s 30th ranked pass rush. Purdy is completing nearly 69% of his passes in his 4 starts with over 207 pass YPG, 8 TD’s and 2 INT’s. LV ranks 26th in passing YPG allowed and 25th in YPA. Over the L5 weeks, 4 of 5 QB’s have outperformed their season averages against the Raiders poor pass rush:
Geno Smith: 259 pass YPG avg; 328 yds, 2 TD’s vs LV
Justin Herbert: 284 pass YPG avg; 335 yds, 1 TD vs LV
Baker Mayfield: 188 pass YPG avg; 230 yds, 1 TD vs LV
Kenny Pickett: 186 pass YPG avg; 244 yds, 1 TD vs LV
Cincy struggles to generate a strong pass rush (29th in sacks) and will face a Buffalo OL that ranks 10th in sacks allowed. Trey Hendrickson has a broken wrist but will play through the injury against Buffalo. Over the L3 weeks, Buffalo ranks just 20th in passing YPG and 18th in YPA despite facing the Bears’ and Dolphins’ atrocious pass defenses.
RED ZONE MATCHUP ANALYSIS
Detroit trails only Kansas City in RZ trips in 2022. When they they get to the red zone, they rank 3rd in the league in converting a trip into a TD at a clip of over 68%. Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks 7th in the league in RZ targets, with 13 catches for 98 yds and 6 TD’s in 2022. In Wk 10 vs Chicago, St. Brown caught 10 balls on 11 targets for 119 yds.
The 49ers have allowed just 33 RZ trips in 2022, leading the league in that category. The 2nd most effective defense is the Broncos, who have allowed 38. The 49ers have held opponents to 20 points or less in 13 of 16 games this season. Over their L7, SF has held opponents to just over 12 PPG. In his career, Jarret Stidham has completed just 52% of his passes for 5.6 YPA, 2 TD’s and 4 INT’s. He is in for a rude awakening vs SF on Sunday.
Over the L2 weeks, George Kittle has been targeted 13 times and caught 10 balls for 213 yds and 4 TD’s. Purdy has had a stronger tendency to push the ball down the field in his 4 starts than Garroppolo, and Kittle has benefitted. Up next is an LV defense that ranks 26th in pass yPG allowed and 27th in RZ TD %, though they do rank 5th in RZ trips allowed.
TOTAL OF THE WEEK: BENGALS / BILLS O49.5
This matchups is one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the season with critical playoff seeding on the line. This will be the first meeting between Joe Burrow and Josh Allen.
The Bengals and Bills rank 3rd and 6th, respectively, in our offensive efficiency ratings. The Bengals rank 6th in RZ trips and 4th in RZ TD %, while the Bills rank 3rd in RZ trips and 9th in RZ TD%. The average number of drives either team gets in a particular game is around 10, which makes moving the ball into the RZ critical. Drives that make it into the RZ result in points significantly more often than drives that do not.
Tyler Boyd on Buffalo’s pass defense: “It’s kind of basic. They don’t do too much disguising – it’s kind of straightforward, they don’t do all the trickery things that we’ve seen a lot from defenses.” Buffalo has faced four offenses that rank in the top 10 of our offensive efficiency ratings since Wk 10; the OVER has hit in 3 of those 4 games:
Minnesota: 9th in OE; 63 total points
Detroit: 4th in OE; 53 total points
Miami: 7th in OE; 62 total points
Chicago: 8th in OE; 48 total points
Though both teams have strong defenses (Bills: 2nd in defensive efficiency; Bengals: 7th in defensive efficiency), they have holes. The Bills have generated just one INT in the L6 weeks, which came on a Nathan Peterman INT on a Hail Mary against the Bears in Week 16. The Bengals, meanwhile, struggle to generate any sort of pass rush and rank 29th in the league in total sacks in 2022.
In summary, we have two of the top 6 most efficient offenses in football facing off on MNF without any adverse weather conditions. Both offenses have playmakers at every position and have enough firepower to exploit weaknesses on either side of the ball. With two top 6 rushing defenses (BUF: 4th in rush YPG; CIN: 6th in rush YPG), the ball should be moving through the air early and often. Give us the O49.5.
6-PT TEASER OF THE WEEK: EAGLES PK / BENGALS +7.5
Jalen Hurts is doubtful on Sunday, which means Gardner Minshew will get the nod. The Eagles just need a win to lock up home-field advantage at the Linc on Sunday. They have a 4th ranked rushing attack matched up with a Saints defense that ranks 23rd in the league in rushing YPG allowed. Over the L3 weeks, the Saints rank 31st in the league in rushing YPG allowed at 181 per game, while the Eagles rank 6th in rushing YPG in the same span. The Falcons 2 weeks ago mowed the Saints down for 231 yds on the ground.
On the injury front, Chris Olave is questionable. Olave has been limited all week and is a game-time decision. If he cannot go, the Saints receiving corps will consist of Rashid Shaheed, Tre’Quan Smith, Marquez Callaway and Kirk Merritt against an Eagles’ secondary that ranks 3rd in passing YPG allowed, 1st in YPA and 5th in explosive passing plays allowed.
Take the Eagles from -6 down to a PK and expect Philly to use its run game, pass rush and excellent passing defense to stifle a Saints offense that is scoring just under 15 PPG in their L7 games.
The Bengals are at home hosting the Bills as a 1.5-point underdog. The Bengals have plenty of offensive firepower to hang with the Bills in this one. The Bills have forced just one turnover in the L6 games on a Hail Mary attempt against the Bears in Week 16.
The Bengals have covered 12 of their L13 and are on a 7-game winning streak. We expect this one to be close and ultimately a toss-up – take the Bengals from 1.5 through key numbers of +3 and +7.