Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized
AROUND THE LEAGUE
Net Yards Per Play Differential Rankings:
Undervalued teams by net YPP rank:
Indy: Yes, they have been brutal moving the ball and protecting Matt Ryan, but they outgained Tennessee 365-243 in a 24-17 loss. Turnovers are killing this team – they rank 30th in the league with with nine through four weeks. The next four weeks will be telling as Matt Ryan settles into the scheme in Indy’s fourth straight season with a new QB under center.
Atlanta: The Falcons were flagged as a bottom 5 roster heading into the 2022 season but have moved the ball efficiently on offense, ranking 4th in rushing ypg, 5th in % of drives to reach the red zone and 8th in pass protection.
Jacksonville: The Jaguars’ new offensive scheme predicated around getting the ball out of Trevor Lawrence’s hands quickly has worked through 4 weeks. Jacksonville does a few things well on the defensive side of the ball, namely stopping the run (6th in ypc), pressuring the QB (9th in QB hits) and forcing turnovers (3rd in turnovers).
Overvalued teams by net YPP rank:
Minnesota: The Vikings were a darkhorse NFC contender heading into the season with a new coaching staff led by Kevin O’Connell, but their defense remains very suspect. Minny’s defense ranks 26th in pass yards allowed per game, 25th in explosive pass plays allowed, 23rd in rushing yards allowed, 27th in red zone conversion rate and 29th in QB hits.
LA Rams: The Rams offensive line issues are going to continue to hamstring them all season. They’ve been missing starters on their interior of the OL throughout the early stretch of the season and just lost Coleman Shelton, a guard who shifted to play center, to the IR this week. They also miss Andrew Whitworth who is obviously retired.
Arizona: On paper, the Cardinals beat the Panthers by two scores on the road and scored 26 points against Carolina in Week 4, but they only posted 13 points through the first 49 minutes of the game and benefited from an INT that gave them the ball inside Carolina’s 5-yard line and a subsequent turnover on downs that gave them the ball on the next drive at the Panthers’ 30-yd line. They are running a high school style offense without DeAndre Hopkins and rank 29th in our defensive efficiency metric.
Offensive Efficiency Rankings through Week 4
How much of a dropoff will Teddy Bridgewater be in Tua’s absence? Teddy has been an effective quarterback everywhere he’s been in the league and finished Thursday night 14-23 for 193 yds, 1 TD and 1 INT in relief of Tua. His 8.4 yards per attempt is indicative of his willingness to push the ball down the field and give his speedy receivers opportunities to make plays in Mike McDaniels’ offense.
Denver is not off to the start they envisioned when the traded for Russ.
SF’s OE ranking is bogged down by their performance in a downpour in Chicago in Week 1 and the fact that Jimmy G did not have a playbook all preseason. They finished 9th in our OE ranking in 2021 under Jimmy G – we expect them to surge in these rankings in the weeks to come as Kyle Shanahan recalibrates.
Baker Mayfield is not going to work in Carolina. It’s time for Carolina to pull the plug on looking for band-aids at QB and invest in a top draft pick.
Defensive Efficiency Rankings through Week 4:
Cincy’s offense will surely come around, but their defense is off to a great start in 2022. They rank 3rd in the league in 3rd down conversion rate, 4th in rushing yards allowed, 3rd in % of opponent’s drives to enter the red zone, 4th in QB hits and 7th in turnovers per game.
SF has played a weak slate of offenses to start the year, but they rank in the top 5 in the league in nearly every relevant defensive metric, including ypp allowed, pass yards per game, rush yards per game, explosive pass and rush plays allowed, sacks and QB hits.
We’ll get to the Detroit Lions later.
Indy’s defense is missing All-Pro LB Shaquille Leonard in a big way. Indy has excelled in some spots on defense, but struggles in the red zone (80% of opponent’s drives into RZ result in TDs, 30th in league) and forcing turnovers (28th in league)
In today’s NFL, offensive efficiency is paramount to making a run in the playoffs. Here are the top 12 offenses from our OE database through Week 4 of the 2021 season. The two Super Bowl contestants demonstrated their offensive prowess early in the season.
Here are the top 12 offenses by offensive efficiency through Week 4 of the 2022 season. Is the 2022-23 Super Bowl matchup somewhere below?
DETROIT LIONS
The 2022 Detroit Lions are an anomaly.
Their final game totals through Week 4 are obviously influenced by the 48-45 result against Seattle, but they are a clear outlier compared to the rest of the league in total scoring output.
Since 2015, the Lions are the 6th most efficient offense and 2nd most inefficient defense by our historical rankings of any unit, league-wide.
The only defense that’s been worst than the 2022 Detroit Lions through the first 4 weeks of the season is the 2016 Detroit Lions defense.
AROUND THE LEAGUE (CONT.)
The Chiefs and Raiders, who will face off on MNF, have logged the most trips to the red zone through 4 weeks.
Detroit is punching the ball into the end zone when they get into the red zone, which they are doing at a high clip.
The Broncos and Panthers are struggling to move the ball into the red zone. When they get inside their opponent’s 20-yard line, they’re having an even tougher time scoring 7.
The Giants have logged just 8 trips to the red zone in 4 games.
Dallas, Green Bay, San Fran, Cincy, Denver and LA have been stout in both keeping opponents out of the red zone and the end zone. Not surprisingly, these top 6 defenses by red zone trips allowed are a combined 20-4 to the Under through 4 weeks.
Philly is boat racing opponents in the first half so far in 2021. Arizona has been getting boat raced.
MATCHUPS ANALYSIS
Dallas is a +4.5 underdog against LA despite outranking the Rams heavily in yards per play differential.
Green Bay and Buffalo have two of the most significant ranking disparities among Week 5 matchups, but the point spread tax may be too heavy on each of these teams.
Pat Mahomes should have plenty of time in the pocket to pick apart the Raiders’ pass defense, which ranks 28th in the league in yards per attempt allowed and 28th in turnovers forced.
Kyler’s speed and elusiveness certainly helps Arizona’s pass protection rating, but he’ll be up against the league’s top pass rush in Week 5 hosting Philly.
Myles Garrett returned to practice on Thursday. The Browns will need him to generate pressure against Justin Herbert on Sunday. Jadaveon Clowney did not practice on Thursday and does not look likely to play. Herbert passed for 398 yards and 4 TD’s against Cleveland in a 47-42 shootout in 2021.
Dallas’ 2nd ranked pass rush should have plenty of opportunities to get home against Matt Stafford in Week 4 behind the Rams’ hodge podge offensive line.
Daniel Jones has been limited with an ankle injury this week, which doesn’t bode well against Green Bay’s 6th ranked pass rush. Parlay that with the fact that neither Kenny Golladay nor Kadarius Toney are traveling with the Giants to London and it could be a tough day through the air for NYG’s 31st ranked passing attack (160 pass ypg).
It’s difficult to envision Baker Mayfield having much time in the pocket to let any routes develop downfield against the 49ers.
If Daniel Jones can navigate the Giants’ offense into the red zone, which he has had a tough time doing in 2022 (8 trips through 4 games), he’s going to have a tough time converting for 7 points against Green Bay’s defense. GB has allowed 8 opponent RZ trips through 4 weeks and only 4 touchdowns thereafter.
Similarly, Carolina is struggling to advance possessions into the red zone against an average defense. SF’s defense ranks 2nd in the league in RZ trips allowed against a Panthers’ offense that has logged just 9 trips inside their opponent’s 20-yard line.
KC and LV lead the league in red zone trips. Red zone trips lead to points. Shootout incoming on MNF?
As mentioned previously, Philly ranks 1st in the league in 1H point differential. They will face the Cardinals, who rank 32nd in the league in the same metric.
Take away the thrashing the Titans took against the Bills in Week 2 and they have outscored opponents 61-20 in the first half. The Commanders have trailed at halftime in every game except their Week 1 matchup with the Jaguars.
The below are examples of Sporting Intelligence’s player matchup dashboards. A full array of dashboards by offensive position will be available in the coming week.
Josh Allen, Joe Flacco, Joe Burrow all have excellent matchups against suspect secondaries this weekend:
Allen: Pittsburgh’s passing defense allows 266 ypg on average. CB Akhellow Witherspoon did not practice on Thursday and is doubtful, while CB Cameron Sutton and S Minkah Fitzpatrick were limited participants and are questionable.
Flacco: Miami ranks 31st in the league allowing 310 passing ypg and 7.8 yards per attempt.
Burrow: Threw for 941 yards and 7 TD’s in two matchups with Baltimore in 2021. Baltimore is allowing 328 passing yards per game and let Tua go for 469 yds and 6 TD’s in Week 2.
Some of the league’s top WR’s including Cooper Kupp, Justin Jefferson and Marquise Brown are facing top passing defenses this weekend.
Tee Higgins and Jamar Chase are set for monster days if the Bengals play anything like they did against the Ravens in 2021 on Sunday night.
AJ Brown and Dallas Goedert should both have plenty of opportunities to create explosive plays through the air and rack up yards after the catch.
Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen will face a Bears defense that leads the league in pass plays > 10 yards and ranks 2nd in the league in passing yards allowed.
Josh Jacobs will face tough sledding against KC’s #1 ranked rushing defense.
The Packers’ offensive scheme should feature Aaron Jones against a Giants defense that ranks 28th in the league in rushing yards allowed.
Dalvin Cook is off to a fine start this season, but could be in for a breakout game against the Bears’ rushing defense that ranks 29th in the league in rushing plays over 10 yards and dead last in the league in rushing yards in total, allowing nearly 184 rushing yards per game.
49ERS (-6.5) @ PANTHERS
The below is an example of weekly matchup analysis dashboards that will be available at gridironintel.com. We will be providing matchup analysis dashboards for every game each week for the rest of the season.
This game has the potential to be one of the most lopsided matchups of the entire season, particularly between the Panthers’ offense and the 49ers defense. Take a look at the respective key metrics and rankings for each unit on the dashboard above and it becomes abundantly obvious that the Panthers are going to struggle to move the ball whatsoever:
San Fran ranks 2nd in our defensive efficiency metric; Carolina ranks 30th in our offensive efficiency ratings
San Fran has the 2nd most effective pass rush in the league; Carolina ranks 23rd in the league in pass protection.
Carolina ranks 24th in the league in rushing yards per game with just 8 rushes for over 10 yards this season; San Fran ranks 2nd in the league in rushing yards allowed with only 6 rushes over 10 yards allowed through four weeks.
Under Jimmy G in 2021, the 49ers finished the season ranked 9th in our offensive efficiency rating. We believe their rating will trend upward over the course of the season as they re-adjust to offense under Jimmy G.
Kyle Shanahan loves to run the ball and the 49ers accordingly rank 9th in the league in rushing yards per game; Carolina ranks 25th in the league in rushing yards allowed.
Carolina struggles to generate any pass rush (30th in sacks), while San Fran ranks 8th in the league in pass protection.
Sporting Intelligence prefers matchup based analysis over trends, but it’s worth mentioning the 49ers were 4-0 ATS in the eastern time zone in 2021.
It’s a chalky road favorite coming off a flashy win on primetime, but based on what’s likely to occur on the field on Sunday, we expect Baker Mayfield to get boo’d more and San Fran to win by 2+ scores.
EAGLES (-5.5) VS CARDINALS
Philly has excelled in 2022 in nearly everything Arizona has struggled with. The Eagles rank 5th in our offensive efficiency metric, while Arizona ranks 29th in our defensive efficiency ratings. The above dashboard highlights that a majority of the Eagles’ strengths on offense, namely in the passing game, 3rd down offense and red zone efficiency favor Philly against an Arizona unit that struggles in each of those phases of the game.
Jacksonville entered their Week 4 matchup with the Eagles as the league’s top rushing defense, only to get run over for 210 yards on the ground.
Philly has logged 48 passing plays over 10 yards (5th in the league), while Arizona has allowed 45 passing plays over 10 yards (25th in the league).
The Eagles rank 3rd in our defensive efficiency ratings, while the Cardinals rank 27th in offensive efficiency. The Eagles’ defense has flashed as a top 10 unit in a number of key metrics with the league’s best pass rush. They have speed at every level of the defense and have forced the 2nd most turnovers in the league.
The Eagles’ biggest weakness on offense is their tendency to commit penalties, yet Arizona outdoes them in shooting themselves in the foot on offense, ranking 29th in the league in offensive penalty yards per game.
The Eagles lead the league in 1H point differential at +57, while the Cardinals have been consistently sleep walking through first halves of games and rank 32nd in the league in the same metric at -50.
Consider the Eagles -3.5 in the first half, -5.5 in the game or as a pairing in a money line parlay on Sunday as they head out to Arizona to face a Cardinals’ roster that is reeling in DeAndre Hopkins’ absence.