Week 9 Preview – Sporting Intelligence

Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized

AROUND THE LEAGUE

NET YPP RANKINGS: CURRENT VS WK 5

  • The Titans are winners of 5 straight and have climbed out of the league bottom slot in Net YPP. They still rank in the league’s bottom 10, but they’ve held opponents under 10 points in the last 4 games and wisely the ball to Derrick Henry to get past the Texans last week with Malik Willis making his first start. They have a difficult matchup with the Chiefs this weekend and likely do not have the firepower to keep pace with KC.

  • The Bucs look out of whack and have plummeted in Net YPP ranks over the last month. There’s still plenty of time for them to get healthier and back into sync, but this team’s Super Bowl window may be closing quickly. They still have a strong pass rush, which should give them a good opportunity to get after Stafford on Sunday.

  • The Dolphins have had a bumpy season at the QB position, but they’ve now strung together two wins in a row with a trip to Chicago on the docket for Week 9. They’ve posted at least 450 yards of offense in two of the last three games:

    • 458 yds vs MIN

    • 372 yds vs PIT

    • 476 yds vs DET

  • The Giants may be one of the most fraudulent 6-2 teams in recent memory heading into the bye. Credit to Daboll for maximizing production from his roster, but there may be some regression coming for the NY Giants – 7 of 8 games this season have been decided by less than one score, the 27-13 loss to the Seahawks in Week 8 being the only result not to finish within that band.

OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RANKINGS: CURRENT VS WK 5

  • The Vikings offense has surged over the last month in our OE rankings. They are middle of the pack in terms of passing and rushing yards per game, but rank 9th in the league in % of drives to reach the red zone and 5th in the league in red zone conversion rate when they do get there. They have a solid matchup with Washington’s 23rd ranked defense by our DE ratings in Week 9.

  • The Packers have been pedestrian on offense over the last month. Rodgers ranks 23rd in yards per attempt on the season and 27th in explosive passing plays. He clearly misses Davante Adams and is looking for a young man he can trust down the stretch, particularly with Randall Cobb out for at least another 2 weeks. He’ll have a good opportunity to right the ship and build some confidence this week against Detroit’s defense, which ranks at the bottom or near the bottom of the league in almost every defensive metric:

  • The Jaguars’ offense showed some promise early in the season under Doug Pederson, but they’re losers of 4 straight. Trevor Lawrence has turned the ball over 8 times in the last 5 weeks, but they’ll have an opportunity to get back on track this week against the 31st rated defense by our efficiency metrics in the LV Raiders, who also rank 32nd in the league in turnovers forced per game.

OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RANKINGS: CURRENT VS WK 5

  • The Patriots have climbed in our DE rankings significantly over the last month, primarily due to their ability to get after the QB (5th in total sacks) and force turnovers (4th in TO’s forced per game. Sam Ehlinger is going to have a tough time in his second career start on the road in Foxboro against this surging defense.

  • The injury bug has hit the 49ers defense hard, particularly in the secondary, though they did hold the Rams to just 223 yards of total offense in a 31-14 win in Week 8.

  • The Colts have had one of the most aggressive climbs in our DE ratings over the last month and are easing All-Pro Shaq Leonard back into the mix. Leonard had 4 tackles and grabbed a critical INT early in the 4th quarter that the Colts converted into points.


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NFC OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS BY WEEK

  • The Eagles continue to thrash their opponents consistently on the offensive side of the ball.

  • NFC offenses that are surging: Cowboys, Saints, Vikings

  • NFC offenses that are facing headwinds: Packers, Bucs, Seahawks

AFC OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS BY WEEK

  • The Dolphins offensive efficiency ratings took a dip without Tua but have bounced back since his return. This offense is explosive and efficient with him on the field.

  • Cincy has surged back into form as the season has progressed, though Jamar Chase’s absence is going to have a material effect on their offensive capabilities.

  • The Patriots’ offensive efficiency has been on a downward trajectory since the season kicked off.

  • The Steelers’ offense is a wreck.

RUSHING AND PASSING RANKS BY DIVISION

  • The Giants and Bears both continue to excel running the football and defending the pass, but struggle to pass the football and defend the run.

  • The Bucs and Rams have the two worst run games in the league, as well as two of the league’s top 10 passing defenses.

  • Green Bay defends the pass extremely well but struggles to defend the run with Detroit’s 10th ranked rushing offense up next.

  • KC ranks 3rd in the league in rushing yards allowed per game – this could be a function of talent, but more likely that their opponents are constantly forced to move the ball through the air to keep pace with Mahomes on offense.

  • The Texans’ rushing defense is historically bad and is a target for opposing RB Overs on a weekly basis. We gave out Miles Sanders O77.5 on TNF on our podcast below.

  • With a weak passing attack and passing defense, the Titans are not equipped to keep pace with the Chiefs on Sunday.


Give our podcast on the SteadyPicks Radio network on Spotify a listen for our favorite sides, totals and player props for Week 9:


MATCHUP ANALYSIS

MATCHUPS BY NET YPP RANKINGS

  • The Seahawks have the most significant edge of any team by Net YPP ranking on Sunday.

  • Ryan Tannehill is a game-time decision on Sunday. If he is out, the Titans are going to have a tough time keeping pace with KC as +12.5 point underdogs.

  • Tampa has struggled over the last month, but they’re in a much better spot as a whole than are the Rams, who rank in the league’s bottom 4 in Net YPP.

OFFENSIVE LINE MATCHUP ANALYSIS

  • Sam Ehlinger is facing an uphill battle behind the league’s 29th ranked OL by pass protection, facing New England’s 5th ranked pass rush on the road in his second career start.

  • Tampa Bay’s 3rd ranked pass rush should make life difficult for Stafford on Sunday behind the 27th ranked OL by pass protection.

  • Zach Wilson has a similarly poor matchup with Buffalo’s 9th ranked pass rush, particularly after they lost starting G Alijah Vera-Tucker to the IR last week.

  • Justin Herbert and Trevor Lawrence should have plenty of time to sit in the pocket and dissect the Falcons’ and Raiders’ secondaries on Sunday.

RED ZONE MATCHUP ANALYSIS

  • Should his offensive line hold up against Atlanta’s anemic pass rush, Justin Herbert and the Chargers should have plenty of red zone opportunities against the 31st ranked defense by RZ trips allowed.

  • Seattle 10th ranked offense by RZ trips should be able to create red zone opportunities against the Cardinals’ defense, which ranks 32nd in the league in red zone trips allowed. Expect the Seahawks to try to control the game on the ground, as they rank 2nd in yards per carry and 5th in explosive rushing plays, facing a Cardinals defense that ranks 30th in explosive rushing plays allowed and 25th in red zone defense.

  • Washington is going to have a difficult time getting into Minnesota’s red zone, as they rank 2nd in the league in red zone trips allowed. Surprisingly, Minnesota ranks 32nd in the league in red zone conversion rate when opponents get inside their 20-yard line.


Explore our dynamic matchup analysis tools that provide a global view of matchups at in every matchup at every level across the league.

Sign up below for full access our game-by-game matchup analysis dashboards, player matchup dashboards and to view our model picks that have been backtested over the previous 7 seasons. Model picks are 14-8 (64%) through Week 8 and historically have hit at a 63% clip in Weeks 5-16 since 2015.

Follow us on Twitter @SportIntellgnce for more!


QB MATCHUPS

  • Jared Goff has a difficult matchup with the Packers’ #1 ranked passing defense on Sunday. Over the last month, the Packers have done an excellent job keeping opposing QB’s in check:

    • 70 yds to Justin Fields (averages 150 pass YPG)

    • 271 to Brady (averages 283 pass YPG)

    • 136 total to Zappe / Hoyer (Zappe averages 195 pass YPG)

    • 110 to Zach Wilson (averages 210 pass YPG)

    • 218 to Josh Allen (averages 314 pass YPG)

  • Justin Herbert would be in for a field day against Atlanta’s 32nd ranked passing defense with a healthy receiving corps. He ranks 5th in the league in passing yards per game at 287, and should have a clear path to clear 300 against Atlanta but will be missing both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on Sunday.

    • 296 to Jimmy G (averages 241 pass YPG)

    • 351 to Brady (averages 283 pass YPG)

    • 234 to Brissett (averages 221 pass YPG)

    • 325 to Geno (averages 241 pass YPG)

    • 481 to Burrow (averages 291 pass YPG)

    • 317 to PJ Walker (averages 154 YPG)

RB MATCHUPS

  • While we loved Derrick Henry last week against the Texans, the game script does not favor him against KC, who boasts the 3rd ranked rushing defense and allows the 3rd least explosive running plays. Should the Titans fall behind early, they’re going to need to move the ball through the air to keep pace with the Chiefs.

  • Aaron Jones has a strong matchup with the Lions’ 30th ranked rushing defense by YPG that also ranks 28th in explosive running plays allowed. Jones has a platoon with AJ Dillon, but he has out-paced Dillon in touches 41-14 the last two weeks and rushed for 143 yards on 20 carries against Buffalo’s 4th ranked rushing defense on SNF last week.

TOTAL OF THE WEEK

U40: COLTS / PATRIOTS

This is a model play on Sporting-Intelligence.com this week for a variety of reasons, both situationally and statistically. We hit O43.5 on TNF to move to 15-8 (65%) on the season with 5 more totals on Sunday.

Sam Ehlinger is lining up under center as a starter for the second time in his career, on the road, against Bill Belichick. Belichick historically is a nightmare for rookie and 2nd year QB’s, and Ehlinger will be no exception. The Patriots defense is equipped to get after opposing passers, ranking 5th in total sacks, facing a Colts’ OL that ranks 29th in sacks allowed and 31st in QB hits allowed.

To make matters worse, Johnathan Taylor has been ruled out, which takes away the Colts’ most capable offensive playmaker against a Patriots defense that ranks 10th in the league in defensive efficiency. To make matters even worse again, Nyheim Hines was traded to the Bills this week, leaving Deon Jackson and Zack Moss to handle the carries for Indy.

Indy meanwhile ranks 12th in the league in our defensive efficiency metric, 8th in yards per play allowed, 5th in 3rd down conversion rate, 7th in passing yards allowed per game, 6th in yards per carry and is easing Shaq Leonard back into action.

To summarize, we have the 29th (Colts) and 30th (Pats) rated offenses by our efficiency metrics facing the 12th (Colts) and 10th (Pats) rated defenses by efficiency, a young QB making his second career start behind an atrocious OL in pass protection, leading an offense that is missing their best playmaker and traded their change of pace back in the middle of the week. Points will be at a premium in this one, give us U40.