Concise & Impartial Matchup Analysis Visualized
The playoffs have arrived with some juicy matchups to breakdown. Before we do that, let’s observe how each team got here.
Over L2 seasons, 7 of 8 teams to reach Conference Championships had a T10 OE rating Only 2 of 8 teams to reach Conf Championships had a T5 DE rating: ’21 Rams, ’20 Bucs. Both won SB
NFC teams with T10 OE ratings: Philly, Dallas, SF, NYG
NFC teams with T10 OE, DE ratings: Philly, SF, Dallas
AFC teams with T10 OE ratings: KC, Cincy, Buffalo
AFC teams with T10 OE, DE ratings: Cincy, Buffalo
Eight of the top 10 teams by Net YPP rating at season end made the playoffs. Net YPP is an excellent indicator of a team’s overall efficacy.
Over L2 seasons, 6 of 8 teams to reach Conference Championships had a point differential greater than +100.
Teams with point differentials greater than +100: Buffalo, SF, Dallas, Philly, KC
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Let’s take a look at how each team’s offensive and defensive efficiency ratings have fluctuated throughout the course of the season:
The Eagles have been a dominant force on both sides of the ball the entire season. They’ve battled some injuries the last few weeks, but got their starting safety CJ Gardner-Johnson back from a lacerated kidney have a bye week to help Jalen Hurts’ sprained AC joint and Lane Johnson’s abdomen heal.
The Eagles, 49ers, Giants and Vikings are clustered at the top of the league in offensive efficiency. It may be surprising to see the Giants up there, but they’ve cut out turnovers and penalties under Daboll this year and have improved dramatically from 2021.
Tampa Bay has shown flashes of a potential surge into the league’s elite, but every flash has been followed by a disappointment.
Seattle’s offense excited many early in the season, but water found its level after the first month or so. How the Bucs or Seahawks made the playoffs with 25th and 27th ranked offenses by our efficiency ratings is a mystery.
The Eagles, 49ers and Cowboys enter with the NFC’s elite defenses. Dallas has the biggest question mark in their secondary with injuries to two of their top 3 corners hampering their ability to defend the pass.
Tampa Bay’s offense looked elite in the first month of the year but has looked old and slow at times. They rank 10th in YPP allowed, 6th in 3rd down conversion rate, 10th in passing YPG and 7th in YPA with an opportunity to knock Dak and the Cowboys out of the postseason at home off Dak’s 14-37 passing performance against the Commanders in Week 18.
There are alot of high powered offenses in the AFC. KC, Cincy and Buffalo have been efficient all season. Buffalo and Kansas City have demonstrated themselves as the most complete rosters by efficiency on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball all season. KC somehow finished 1st in the league in Net YPP despite a 26th ranked defense by efficiency, thanks to their top-ranked offense.
The Chargers struggled throughout the middle part of the season, dealing with injuries to their top 2 wideouts, but they’ve popped the L2 weeks with Williams and Allen back. That said, Mike Williams has not practiced this week after riding a cart off the field in a Wk 18 game that had zero impact on the Chargers’ playoff positioning. That said, they are an extremely intriguing team the way their defense has played since Wk 14. Over that stretch, they climbed from the 18th rated defense by efficiency to the 10th slot. The Chargers should be a tough out.
Balitmore’s offensive efficiency has steadily declined in Lamar’s absence. Lamar has not practiced in 38 days, and their offense is averaging 16 PPG without him. It’s a shame, because Baltimore’s defense has been excellent since the trade deadline and enters the posteason ranking 3rd in defensive efficiency, 4th in 3rd down conversion rate, 3rd in rushing YPG allowed, 3rd in RZ conversion rate and 5th in sacks.
Miami’s offense has sputtered with the QB carousel that’s plaguing them. Their defense never hit the ignition this season.
Enough with where we are, time to discuss this week’s matchups:
SF -9.5 vs SEA (O/U 42.5)
SF enters this game on a 10-game winning streak in which they’ve outscored their opponent by an average of 16.1 PPG.
SF is one of the top-5 most well-rounded teams in football, ranking 7th in OE and 5th in DE. They’ve seen little decline with Brock Purdy as starter, ranking 4th in YPP, 6th in 3rd down conversion rate, 8th in rushing YPG and 9th in explosive rushing plays with a mostly healthy roster.
The Seahawks meanwhile struggle to defend the run, ranking 30th in rushing YPG allowed, 26th in YPC and 24th in explosive rushing plays.
Seattle ranks 23rd in the league in protecting the passer, allowing 46 sacks in total on the season, while SF ranks 10th in pass rush with 44 sacks on the year.
SF has dominated Seattle on two separate occasions this season by winning the line of scrimmage, running the ball and taking an early lead.
Wk 2: 27-7 win
Outgained 373 – 216; 189 rushing yds; 1 sack allowed
Won TOP battle 38:20-21:40
Led 20-0 at half
Wk 15: 21-13 win
Outgained 381-277; 170 total rushing yds; 1 sack allowed
Led 14-3 at half
I expect the 49ers to dominate this game early by establishing the run game and using play action to get the passing game going. Christian McCaffrey rushed for 108 yds on 26 carries and 1 TD in Week 15, while Elijah Mitchell returned in Week 18, rushing for 55 yds on just 5 carries and 2 TD’s. Using play action, Kittle caught 4 balls for 93 yds and 2 TD’s in Week 15 vs Seattle, which ranks 31st in the league in TE receiving yards allowed.
I like SF -6 1H in this game – expect SF to establish their physicality early and force a turnover that they can turn into points.
We also like Elijah Mitchell and Christian McCaffrey as anytime TD scorers vs a Seattle defense that ranks 26th in rushing TD’s allowed this season. Mitchell scored 2x vs Arizona last week, while McCaffrey has scored a TD in each of his L5 games.
JAX (+2.5) VS. LAC (O/U 47.5)
This game is the most unpredictable game of the weekend with two playoff newcomers facing off in Jacksonville on Saturday night. The Jags have won 6 of their L7 including their L5, while the Chargers played their starters in a meaningless Wk 18 matchup vs the Broncos.
This is a rematch of the Week 3 trouncing in which the Jaguars took care of the Chargers 38-10 at Sofi Stadium. Disclaimer, this was the week after Justin Herbert suffered severely cracked ribs against KC.
There’s alot to like about both of these teams:
Jacksonville ranks 9th in yards per play and % of drives to reach the red zone. Trevor Lawrence has excelled under Doug Pederson in his 2nd year in the league, ranking 10th in explosive passing plays. The Jags’ OL has also protected Lawrence well, ranking 5th in sacks allowed and 3rd in QB hits allowed.
The Chargers rank 9th in the league in offensive efficiency, 4th in passing YPG and 3rd in explosive passing plays.
There’s also a lot to give you pause with both of these teams:
The Chargers have no effective running game, ranking 30th in rushing YPG and YPC and 29th in explosive rushing plays. On defense, they are missing several key interior DL’s and as a result rank 28th in rushing YPG allowed and 32nd in YPC.
The Jags defense ranks 29th in 3rd down conversion rate against a Chargers offense that ranks 8th in 3rd down conversion rate. The Jags also rank 27th in passing YPG allowed and explosive passing plays allowed against a Chargers’ offense that ranks 4th in passing YPG and 3rd in explosive passing plays.
This game feels like a coin flip to either side as the Jags and Chargers have been two of the most unpredictable teams in the league on a week-in, week-out basis. Justin Herbert should dominate (assuming Mike Williams is 100%), while Travis Etienne has an opportunity to have a productive evening on the ground at O/U 78.5 rushing yds:
The Chargers rank 32nd in YPC allowed and have allowed opposing RB’s to move the ball in chunks in recent weeks:
Latavius Murray: 15 carries, 103 yds (6.9 YPC), 1 TD
Cam Akers: 19 carries, 123 yds (6.5 YPC)
Derrick Henry: 21 carries, 104 yds (5.0 YPC), 1 TD
James Robinson and Travis Etienne combined for 145 yds on 30 carries in Week 3 – Robinson is long gone and Etienne is the clear workhorse in the Jags backfield.
The Jags should try to exploit LAC’s weakness in the running game not only to score points, but also to keep the ball out of Herbert’s hands with a suspect secondary that’s susceptible to chunk passing plays.
BUF -13.5 VS MIA (O/U 43.5)
With Skylar Thompson in line to start in this game, this could quickly turn in to a Bills’ blowout given the way the Dolphins’ offense looked against a Jets’ defense that finished the season ranked 6th in defensive efficiency. In a must-win game at home, the Dolphins offense posted 9 points (a safety on the game’s final play got them to 11 total). Thompson threw for 152 yds on 20-31 passing, led the Dolphins to 4-13 on 3rd down and managed two trips to the RZ and 0 TD’s.
Thompson is going to have a tough time against a Bills defense that finished the season ranked 1st in defense efficiency, 7th in YPP allowed, 7th in 3rd down conversion rate, 5th in YPA allowed and 5th in rushing YPG allowed.
Josh Allen has shredded this Dolphins’ secondary that ranks 28th in passing YPG allowed and 29th in defensive efficiency on two separate occasions this season:
Wk 3: 42-63, 400 yds, 2 TD’s
Wk 15: 25-40, 304 yds, 4 TD’s
There was value to be had prior to the announcement that Tua would not play when the Bills line dipped to -9, but at -13.5, there’s not much value on either side. Consider anytime TD props for Stefon Diggs or Dawson Knox:
Diggs has 11 receiving TD’s but should likely attract double coverage in the red zone.
Dawson Knox has caught a TD in each of his L4 games; Miami’s defense ranks 25th in passing TD’s allowed
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MIN (-3) VS NYG (O/U 48)
Neither team enters this game with a ton of momentum – the Vikings won in Week 18 over the Bears, but lost 41-17 to the Packers in Week 17. The Giants meanwhile started the season strong but finished just 2-5-1 SU over the L8 games.
This is a rematch of a Week 16 matchup in which the Vikings escaped with a 27-24 win at home on a last second Greg Joseph field goal. The Giants outgained the Vikings 445-353, while Daniel Jones turned in a strong day in the air, finishing 30-42 for 334 yds, 1 TD and 1 INT (Jones averages 200 yds passing on the season).
The Vikings are a high-powered, high-volume passing attack on offense, ranking 2nd in passing YPG and explosive passing plays while finishing the regular season ranked just 28th in rushing YPG. On the opposite side of the ball, their secondary is incredibly suspect, ranking 31st in passing YPG allowed, 30th in YPA and 32nd in explosive passing plays allowed. Not surprisingly, the Vikings finished the season 11-6 to the OVER, with the OVER hitting in 8 of their L11 games.
Not surprisingly, opposing quarterbacks outperform season averages against the Vikings atrocious secondary – take out Nathan Peterman in Week 18, and 6 of the L8 quarterbacks to face the Vikings secondary have outperformed season average by over 20% with a diverse sample of pocket QB’s and mobile gunslingers. Daniel Jones averages 200 passing YPG with a O/U of 240.5 for Sunday – we like Jones to hit his OVER chasing the Vikings offense down.
All this being said, the Vikings’ roster construction invites close, high-scoring games. They have a high-powered passing attack that allows them to put points on the board and take an early lead, but their secondary is so bad that it allows an opponent chasing the scoreboard to stay in the game and put points on the board in the 4th quarter to have an opportunity to win the game.
There’s a divergence between the public’s opinion of the NY Giants and how they’ve performed on offense this year. The Giants have been the league’s laughingstock for 5 years under Dave Gettelman, but they finished 8th in offensive efficiency this season. For this reason, we like the Giants +9 in a two-team, 6-point teaser, taking +3 through key numbers of 6 and 7, paired with the TB Bucs +8.5 – we will get to that game later.
CIN -9.5 VS BAL (O/U 40.5)
It’s wrong to speculate if Lamar Jackson would be gearing up to play on Sunday night if he got the contract extension he was hoping for but it is human nature to speculate. Regardless, the NFL is more exciting with him on the field than it is with him on the sideline.
The Ravens won the first divisional matchup in Week 5 on a Justin Tucker field goal at a time when the Bengals’ offense and specifically OL were trying to figure their scheme out. Since then, the Bengals have caught fire, as they won 10 of their next 11 and went 8-2-1 ATS.
The Bengals have the 2nd most efficient offense in the league per our ratings, ranking 3rd in 3rd down conversion rate and passing YPG, 9th in YPA, 8th in explosive passes and 5th in red zone conversion rate.
They’ll be facing a Ravens’ defense that ranks 3rd in defensive efficiency, 4th in 3rd down conversion rate but doesn’t necessarily excel in defending the pass, ranking 26th in passing YPG, 18th in YPA and 22nd in explosive passing plays allowed. Where they do excel is in stopping the run, ranking 3rd in rushing YPG allowed and YPC and 2nd in explosive running plays allowed. They also rush the passer effectively, ranking 5th in the league in sacks.
Baltimore won parts of the box score in Week 18 vs the Bengals, outgaining Cincy by a 386-257 margin and rushing for 110 yds on the ground. Anthony Brown turned out to be a liability at QB however, completing just 43% of his passes, throwing 2 INT’s and losing 1 fumble. Tyler Huntley was throwing at practice on Thursday.
The Ravens are averaging just 16 PPG without Jackson in at QB. They’ve cleared the 17-point mark just one time since early November. Bengals should win and advance to face the Bills in the divisional round, but swallowing 9.5 points against a John Harbaugh-led team that’s overcome a ton of injuries on both sides of the ball and has a top-5 defense is unwise.
TB +2.5 vs DAL (O/U 45.5)
The Cowboys are traveling to play a road game in Tampa despite a 12-5 record.
Both of these teams are off Week 18 losses, though one is much more damning than the other. The Bucs had the NFC South locked up and rested their starters most of the game, while the Cowboys had every incentive to beat the Commanders and have a chance to improve their seeding with a win and Eagles and 49ers losses. Instead, the Cowboys went out and lost 26-6 and Dak Prescott turned in one of the worst games by any quarterback this season, finishing 14-37 (staggering 38% completion percentage) for just 128 yds and 1 TD. Dak has thrown 15 picks in 12 games.
Dallas is struggling to run the football after losing RT Riley Steele a few weeks ago; avg. of 76 rushing yds L2 weeks
Tampa Bay does not have anywhere near an elite offense entering this game against a Dallas defense that ranks in the league’s top 10 in nearly every key metric that we track, which is going to create an uphill battle for Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offense that ranks 32nd in rushing YPG, YPC and explosive running plays.
Dallas is thin in the secondary despite strong rankings on the surface:
Lost Anthony Brown, Jourdan Lewis to season-ending injuries over L2 months
Slot CB Daron Bland left Wk 18 early with a chest injury though he’ll be available this week
Cowboys signed Xavier Rhodes this week for support – never a great sign to sign a CB the week of a playoff game.
Granted it was against the Panthers 22nd ranked pass defense, but Brady in a must win for the division threw for 432 yards on 34-35 passing for 3 TD’s – went to his guys Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for 327 yds and 3 TD’s
If TB can protect Brady on OL – they are 1st in the league in sacks allowed, Brady could exploit a secondary that’s beat up and does not have its best players on the field
Playing off Giants +9, give us the Bucs +8.5 in a 2-team teaser. The Bucs have a chance to win this game at home. The Bucs have fallen flat on their faces at times on offense this season, but with Brady at QB and +8.5 points, through key numbers of +3 and +7, there’s plenty of reason to like this teaser.